Named Atlantic Storms in 2021

Seasonal predictions of the number of named storms issued by NOAA and by the OLR-based algorithm developed in Karnauskas and Li (2016) are shown below. Finalized OLR-based predictions will be posted on or around June 2 (pre-season), July 2 (one month in), and August 2 (two months in) of each year, as there is a ~2 day lag in the retrieval and processing of satellite OLR measurements. The OLR-based predictions are calculated using two different techniques: linear regression (LR) and random forest (RF; a machine learning technique). Predictions made via both techniques are provided.

A note about uncertainties: The uncertainties on the OLR-based predictions published here will match those of NOAA each year. In other words, if NOAA's prediction is N ± 3, then the number of storms predicted by the OLR-based algorithm ± 3 will be displayed here. If the NOAA range (maximum minus minimum) is an odd number, the extra storm in the range will go into the direction from which the OLR-based prediction was rounded to the nearest whole number.

 

  Pre-season One month in Two months in
NOAA

13-20

May 20

 

15-21

Aug. 4

OLR LR

15-22 (18.1)

June 7

(17.3)

July 8

14-20 (16.8)

Aug. 8

OLR RF

13-20 (16.8)

June 7

 

13-19 (15.9)

Aug. 8

 

Actual TBD in December

 

Compilation of all publicly-available Atlantic seasonal hurricane predictions (with a scientific basis) hosted by the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre.