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Physical Oceanography and Climate, First Edition, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-1-108-42386-1 (Hardback), ISBN 978-1-108-52959-4 (eBook), 2020.

Climate Modeling for Health Impacts (Chapter 13), in Global Climate Change and Human Health: From Science to Practice, Second Edition (Luber et al., eds), John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 978-1-119-66795-7 (Paperback), 2021.

Peer–reviewed articles, published or in press

Goodkin, N. F., D. Samanta, A. Bolton, M. R. M. Ong, P. K. Hoang, S. T. Vo, K. B. Karnauskas, and K. A. Hughen, 2021: Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing of Multi-decadal to Centennial Scale Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol., 36(10), e2021PA004233, doi: 10.1029/2021PA004233.

Sanchez, S. C., and K. B. Karnauskas, 2021: Diversity in the persistence of El Niño events over the last millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48(18), e2021GL093698, doi: 10.1029/2021GL093698.

Samanta, D., N. F. Goodkin, and K. B. Karnauskas, 2021: Volume and heat transport in the South China Sea and Maritime Continent at present and the end of the 21st century. J. Geophys. Res.–Oceans, 126(9), e2020JC016901, doi: 10.1029/2020JC016901.

Gadeken, K. R., M. B. Joseph, J. McGlinchy, K. B. Karnauskas, and C. C. Wall, 2021: Predicting subsurface sonar observations with satellite-derived ocean surface data in the California Current Ecosystem. PLoS One, 16(8), e0248297, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248297.

Wei, H.–H., A. C. Subramanian, K. B. Karnauskas, C. A. DeMott, M. R. Mazloff, and M. A. Balmaseda, 2021: Tropical Pacific Air-sea Interaction Processes and Biases in CESM2 and their Relation to El Niño Development. J. Geophys. Res.–Oceans, 126(6), e2020JC016967, doi: 10.1029/2020JC016967.

Karnauskas, K. B., L. Zhang, and K. Emanuel, 2021: The feedback of cold wakes on tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48(7), e2020GL091676, doi: 10.1029/2020GL091676.

Harp, R. D., J. M. Colborn, B. Candrinho, K. L. Colborn, L. Zhang, and K. B. Karnauskas, 2021: Interannual Climate Variability and Malaria in Mozambique. GeoHealth, 5(2), e2020GH000322, doi: 10.1029/2020GH000322.

Amaya, D. J., M. A. Alexander, A. Capotondi, C. Deser, K. B. Karnauskas, A. J. Miller, and N. J. Mantua, 2021: Are Long-Term Changes in Mixed Layer Depth Influencing North Pacific Marine Heatwaves? [in “Explaining Extremes of 2019 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 102(1), S59–S66, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0144.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., L. Zhang, and D. J. Amaya, 2021: The Atmospheric Response to North Atlantic SST Trends, 1870–2019. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48(2), e2020GL090677, doi: 10.1029/2020GL090677.

Rudnick, D. L., W. B. Owens, T. M. S. Johnston, K. B. Karnauskas, J. Jakoboski, and R. E. Todd, 2021: The equatorial current system west of the Galápagos Islands during the 2014–2016 El Niño as observed by underwater gliders. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 51(1), 3–17, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-20-0064.1.

Bramante, J., M. Ford, P. Kench, A. Ashton, M. Toomey, R. Sullivan, K. B. Karnauskas, C. C. Ummenhofer, and J. P. Donnelly, 2020: Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes. Nature Geoscience, 13, 806–811, doi: 10.1038/s41561-020-00656-2.

Karnauskas, K. B., J. Jakoboski, T. M. S. Johnston, W. B. Owens, D. L. Rudnick, and R. E. Todd, 2020: The Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent in Three Generations of Global Climate Models and Glider Observations. J. Geophys. Res.–Oceans, 125(11), e2020JC016609, doi: 10.1029/2020JC016609.

Karnauskas, K. B., 2020: Physical Diagnosis of the 2016 Great Barrier Reef Bleaching Event. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47(11), e2019GL086177, doi: 10.1029/2019GL086177.

Gao, C., R.–H. Zhang, K. B. Karnauskas, L. Zhang, and F. Tian, 2020: Separating freshwater flux effects on ENSO in a hybrid coupled model of the tropical Pacific. Clim. Dyn., 54, 4605–4626, doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05245-y.

Karnauskas, K. B., S. L. Miller, and A. C. Schapiro, 2020: Fossil fuel combustion is driving indoor CO2 toward levels harmful to human cognition. GeoHealth, 4(5), e2019GH000237, doi: 10.1029/2019GH000237.

Staten, P. W., K. M. Grise, S. M. Davis, K. B. Karnauskas, D. W. Waugh, A. Maycock, Q. Fu, K. Cook, O. Adam, I. R. Simpson, R. J. Allen, K. Rosenlof, G. Chen, C. C. Ummenhofer, X.–W. Quan, J. P. Kossin, N. A. Davis, and S.–W. Soon, 2020: Tropical widening: From global variations to regional impacts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101, E897–E904, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0047.1.

Jakoboski, J. K., R. E. Todd, W. B. Owens, K. B. Karnauskas, and D. L. Rudnick, 2020: Bifurcation and Upwelling of the Equatorial Undercurrent West of the Galápagos Archipelago. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 50, 887–905, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-19-0110.1.

Samanta, D., B. Rajagopalan, K. B. Karnauskas, L. Zhang, and N. F. Goodkin, 2020: La Niña's Diminishing Fingerprint on the Central Indian Summer Monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47(2), e2019GL086237, doi: 10.1029/2019GL086237.

Harp, R. D., and K. B. Karnauskas, 2020: Global Warming to Increase Violent Crime in the United States. Environ. Res. Lett., 15(3), 034039, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b37.

Zhang, L., W. Han, K. B. Karnauskas, G. A. Meehl, A. Hu, N. Rosenbloom, and T. Shinoda, 2019: Indian Ocean Warming Trend Reduces Pacific Warming Response to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases: An Interbasin Thermostat Mechanism. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 10882–10890, doi: 10.1029/2019GL084088.

Staten, P. W., K. M. Grise, S. M. Davis, N. A. Davis, and K. B. Karnauskas, 2019: Regional widening of tropical overturning–forced change, natural variability, and recent trends. J. Geophys. Res.–Atmospheres, 124, 6104–6119, doi: 10.1029/2018JD030100.

Lemmon, D. E., and K. B. Karnauskas, 2019: A metric for quantifying El Niño pattern diversity with implications for ENSO–mean state interaction. Clim. Dyn., 52, 7511–7523, doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4194-3.

Goodkin, N. F., A. Bolton, K. A. Hughen, K. B. Karnauskas, S. Griffin, K. H. Phan, S. T. Vo, M. R. Ong, and E. R. M. Druffel, 2019: East Asian Monsoon Variability since the 16th Century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 4790–4798, doi: 10.1029/2019GL081939.

Bryan, S. P., K. A. Hughen, K. B. Karnauskas, and J. T. Farrar, 2019: Two Hundred Fifty Years of Reconstructed South Asian Summer Monsoon Intensity and Decadal–Scale Variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 3927–3935, doi: 10.1029/2018GL081593.

Hamlington, B. D., S. H. Cheon, C. G. Piecuch, K. B. Karnauskas, P. R. Thompson, K.–Y. Kim, J. T. Reager, F. W. Landerer, and T. Frederiske, 2019: The dominant global modes of recent internal sea level variability. J. Geophys. Res.–Oceans, 124, 2750–2768, doi: 10.1029/2018JC014635.

Zhang, L., D.–Z. Sun and K. B. Karnauskas, 2019: The Role of the Indian Ocean in Determining the Tropical Pacific SST Response to Radiative Forcing in an Idealized Model. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 86, 1–9, doi: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2019.02.003.

Samanta, D., K. B. Karnauskas, and N. F. Goodkin, 2019: Tropical Pacific SST and ITCZ Biases in Climate Models: Double Trouble for Future Rainfall Projections? Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2242–2252, doi: 10.1029/2018GL081363.

Grise, K. M., S. M. Davis, I. R. Simpson, D. W. Waugh, Q. Fu, R. J. Allen, K. H. Rosenlof, C. C. Ummenhofer, K. B. Karnauskas, A. C. Maycock, X. Quan, T. Birner, and P. W. Staten, 2019: Recent Tropical Expansion: Natural Variability or Forced Response? J. Climate, 32, 1551–1571, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0444.1.

Harp, R. D., and K. B. Karnauskas, 2018: The Influence of Interannual Climate Variability on Regional Violent Crime Rates in the United States. GeoHealth, 2, 356–369, doi: 10.1029/2018GH000152.

Samanta, D., K. B. Karnauskas, N. F. Goodkin, S. Coats, J. E. Smerdon, and L. Zhang, 2018: Coupled model biases breed spurious low–frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 10609–10618, doi: 10.1029/2018GL079455.

Maroon, E. A., J. E. Kay, and K. B. Karnauskas, 2018: Influence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature response to radiative forcing. J. Climate, 31, 9207–9224, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0900.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., and B. H. Jones, 2018: The interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the Red Sea from 35 years of satellite and in situ observations. J. Geophys. Res.–Oceans, 123, 5824–5841, doi: 10.1029/2017JC013320.

Karnauskas, K. B., C.–F. Schleussner, J. P. Donnelly, and K. J. Anchukaitis, 2018: Freshwater Stress on Small Island Developing States: Population Projections and Aridity Changes at 1.5°C and 2°C. Reg. Environ. Change, 18, 2273–2282, doi: 10.1007/s10113-018-1331-9.

Coats, S., and K. B. Karnauskas, 2018: A role for the Equatorial Undercurrent in the ocean dynamical thermostat. J. Climate, 31, 6245–6261, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0513.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., J. K. Lundquist, and L. Zhang, 2018: Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions. Nature Geoscience, 11, 38–43, doi: 10.1038/s41561-017-0029-9.

Zhang, L., K. B. Karnauskas, J. B. Weiss, and L. M. Polvani, 2018: Observational Evidence of the Downstream Impact on Tropical Rainfall from Stratospheric Kelvin Waves. Clim. Dyn., 50, 3775–3782, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3844-1.

Coats, S., and K. B. Karnauskas, 2017: Are simulated and observed 20th century tropical Pacific sea surface temperature trends significant relative to internal variability? Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 9928–9937, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074622.

Zhang, L., T. Rechtman, K. B. Karnauskas, L. Li, J. P. Donnelly, and J. P. Kossin, 2017: Longwave Emission Trends over Africa and Implications for Atlantic Hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 9075–9083, doi: 10.1002/2017GL073869.

Hamlington, B. D., J. T. Reager, M.–H. Lo, K. B. Karnauskas, and R. R. Leben, 2017: Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise. Scientific Reports, 7, 995, doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-00875-5.

Zhang, L., K. B.  Karnauskas, J. P. Donnelly, and K. Emanuel, 2017: Response of the North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology to Global Warming: Application of Dynamical Downscaling to CMIP5 Models. J. Climate, 30(4), 1233–1243, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0496.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., E. Mittelstaedt, and R. Murtugudde, 2017: Paleoceanography of the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 4 million years and the geologic origins of modern Galápagos upwelling. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 460, 22–28, doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2016.12.005.

Zhang, L., and K. B.  Karnauskas, 2017: The Role of Tropical Interbasin SST Gradients in Forcing Walker Circulation Trends. J. Climate, 30(2), 499–508, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0349.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., G. C. Johnson, and R. Murtugudde, 2017: On the climate impacts of atolls in the central equatorial Pacific. Int. J. Climatol., 37(1), 197–203, doi: 10.1002/joc.4697.

Coats, S., J. E. Smerdon, Karnauskas, K. B., and R. Seager, 2016: The improbable but unexceptional occurrence of megadrought clustering in the American West during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 074025, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074025.

Karnauskas, K. B., and L. Li, 2016: Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(13), 7152–7159, doi: 10.1002/2016GL069792.

Li, L., R. W. Schmitt, C. C. Ummenhofer, and K. B. Karnauskas, 2016: North Atlantic salinity as a predictor of Sahel rainfall. Science Advances, 2(5), e1501588, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1501588.

Karnauskas, K. B., J. P. Donnelly, and K. J. Anchukaitis, 2016: Future Freshwater Stress for Island Populations. Nature Climate Change, 6, 720–725, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2987.

Li, L., R. W. Schmitt, C. C. Ummenhofer, and K. B. Karnauskas, 2016: Implications of North Atlantic Sea Surface Salinity for Summer Precipitation over the US Midwest: Mechanisms and Predictive Value. J. Climate, 29(9), 3143–3159, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0520.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., A. L. Cohen, and J. M. Gove, 2016: Mitigation of Coral Reef Warming Across the Central Pacific by the Equatorial Undercurrent: A Past and Future Divide. Scientific Reports, 6, 21213, doi: 10.1038/srep21213.

Kendall, M. S., M. Poti, and K. B. Karnauskas, 2016: Climate change and larval–transport in the ocean: Fractional effects from physical and physiological factors. Glob. Chang. Biol., 22, 1532–1547, doi: 10.1111/gcb.13159.

Trusel, L. D., K. E. Frey, S. B. Das, K. B. Karnauskas, P. K. Munneke, E. van Meijgaard, and M. R. van den Broeke, 2015: Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty–first–century climate scenarios. Nature Geoscience, 8, 927–932, doi: 10.1038/ngeo2563.

Karnauskas, K. B., J. P. Donnelly, H. C. Barkley, and J. E. Martin, 2015: Coupling between Air Travel and Climate. Nature Climate Change, 5, 1068–1073, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2715.

Karnauskas, K. B., S. Jenouvrier, C. W. Brown, and R. Murtugudde, 2015: Strong sea surface cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and implications for Galápagos Penguin conservation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(15), 6432–6437, doi: 10.1002/2015GL064456.

Capotondi, A., A. T. Wittenberg, M. Newman, E. Di Lorenzo, J.–Y. Yu, P. Braconnot, J. Cole, B. Dewitte, B. Giese, E. Guilyardi, F.–F. Jin, K. Karnauskas, B. Kirtman, T. Lee, N. Schneider, Y. Xue, and S.–W. Yeh, 2015: Understanding ENSO diversity. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96(6), 921–938, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00117.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., A. L. Cohen, and E. J. Drenkard, 2015: Comment on “Equatorial Pacific coral geochemical records show recent weakening of the Walker Circulation” by J. Carilli et al. Paleoceanography, 30(5), 570–574, doi: 10.1002/2014PA002753.

DeCarlo, T. M., K. B. Karnauskas, K. A. Davis, and G. T. F. Wong, 2015: Climate modulates internal wave activity in the Northern South China Sea. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(3), 831–838, doi: 10.1002/2014GL062522.

Karnauskas, K. B., R. Murtugudde, and W. B. Owens, 2014: Climate and the Global Reach of the Galápagos Archipelago: State of the Knowledge, in The Galápagos: A Natural Laboratory for the Earth Sciences (eds K. S. Harpp, E. Mittelstaedt, N. d'Ozouville and D. W. Graham), John Wiley & Sons, Inc, Hoboken, New Jersey, doi: 10.1002/9781118852538.ch11.

Leslie, W. R., K. B. Karnauskas, and J. H. Witting, 2014: The Equatorial Undercurrent and TAO sampling bias from a decade at SEA. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 31(9), 2015–2025, doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00262.1 (paper), 10.1575/1912/6746 (data), 10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00187.1 (corrigendum).

Newby, P. E., B. N. Shuman, J. P. Donnelly, K. B. Karnauskas, and J. Marsicek, 2014: Centennial–to–Millennial Hydrologic Trends and Variability along the North Atlantic Coast, U.S.A., during the Holocene. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41(12), 4300–4307, doi: 10.1002/2014GL060183.

Karnauskas, K. B., and C. C. Ummenhofer, 2014: On the dynamics of the Hadley circulation and subtropical drying. Clim. Dyn., 42(9–10), 2259–2269, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2129-1.

Drenkard, E. J., and K. B. Karnauskas, 2014: Strengthening of the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent in the SODA ocean reanalysis: Mechanisms, ocean dynamics, and implications. J. Climate, 27(6), 2405–2416, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00359.1.

Maloney, E., and Coauthors, 2014: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments: Part III: Assessment of Twenty–First Century projections. J. Climate, 27(6), 2230–2270, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00273.1.

Criscitiello, A. S., S. B. Das, K. B. Karnauskas, M. J. Evans, K. E. Frey, I. Joughin, E. J. Steig, J. R. McConnell, and B. Medley, 2014: Tropical Pacific influence on source and transport of marine aerosols to West Antarctica. J. Climate, 27(3), 1343–1363, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00148.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., 2014: Arctic forcing of decadal variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean in a high–resolution global coupled GCM. Clim. Dyn., 42(11–12), 3375–3388, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1836-3.

Gierach, M. M., M. Messié, T. Lee, K. B. Karnauskas, and M.–H. Radenac, 2013: Biophysical Responses near Equatorial Islands in the Western Pacific Ocean during El Niño/La Niña Transitions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40(20), 5473–5479, doi: 10.1002/2013GL057828.

Sheffield, J., and Coauthors, 2013: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part II: Evaluation of historical simulations of intraseasonal to decadal variability. J. Climate, 26(23), 9247–9290, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00593.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., 2013: Can we distinguish canonical El Niño from Modoki? Geophys. Res. Lett., 40(19), 5246–5251, doi: 10.1002/grl.51007.

Karnauskas, K. B., A. Giannini, R. Seager, and A. J. Busalacchi, 2013: A simple mechanism for the climatological midsummer drought along the Pacific coast of Central America. Atmósfera, 26(2), 261–281, doi: 10.1016/S0187-6236(13)71075-0.

Karnauskas, K. B., J. E. Smerdon, R. Seager, and J. F. Gonzalez–Rouco, 2012: A Pacific centennial oscillation predicted by coupled GCMs. J. Climate, 25(17), 5943–5961, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00421.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., and A. L. Cohen, 2012: Equatorial refuge amid tropical warming. Nature Climate Change, 2(7), 530–534, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1499.

Karnauskas, K. B., G. C. Johnson, and R. Murtugudde, 2012: An equatorial ocean bottleneck in global climate models. J. Climate, 25(1), 343–349, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00059.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., R. Murtugudde, and A. J. Busalacchi, 2010: Observing the Galápagos–EUC interaction: Insights and challenges. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40(12), 2768–2777, doi: 10.1175/2010JPO4461.1.

Cantin, N. E., A. L. Cohen, K. B. Karnauskas, A. M. Tarrant, and D. C. McCorkle, 2010: Ocean warming slows coral growth in the central Red Sea. Science, 329(5989), 322–325, doi: 10.1126/science.1190182.

Karnauskas, K. B., R. Seager, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, and M. A. Cane, 2009: Observed strengthening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 22(16), 4316–4321, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2936.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., and A. J. Busalacchi, 2009: The role of SST in the east Pacific warm pool in the interannual variability of Central American rainfall. J. Climate, 22(10), 2605–2623, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2468.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., and A. J. Busalacchi, 2009: Mechanisms for the interannual variability of SST in the east Pacific warm pool. J. Climate, 22(6), 1375–1392, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2467.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., R. Murtugudde, and A. J. Busalacchi, 2008: The effect of the Galápagos Islands on ENSO in forced ocean and hybrid coupled models. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 38(11), 2519–2534, doi: 10.1175/2008JPO3848.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., A. J. Busalacchi, and R. Murtugudde, 2008: Low–frequency variability and remote forcing of gap winds over the east Pacific warm pool. J. Climate, 21(19), 4901–4918, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI1771.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., A. Ruiz–Barradas, S. Nigam, and A. J. Busalacchi, 2008: North American droughts in ERA–40 global and NCEP North American regional reanalyses: A Palmer Drought Severity Index perspective. J. Climate, 21(10), 2102–2123, doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI1837.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., R. Murtugudde, and A. J. Busalacchi, 2007: The effect of the Galápagos Islands on the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 37(5), 1266–1281, doi: 10.1175/JPO3048.1.

Karnauskas, K. B., 2006: The African meridional OLR contrast as a diagnostic for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and implications for predictability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33(6), L06809, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024865.