Colorado snowpack tells a troubling story for water and wildfire in the West
Story and photos by Yvaine Ye
At 9,500 feet on an early spring day, Jennifer Kay would usually expect to find thick snow blanketing the CU Boulder’s Mountain Research Station at Niwot Ridge, an alpine monitoring and research site 25 miles west of Boulder.
But this March, as Kay stepped out of her car, she found bare ground.
The sleds Kay had planned to use to haul equipment had to stay behind. Instead, the scientist stuffed her gear into a giant duffle bag and led a group of students on a one-mile hike through dirt and only occasional patches of snow.
Kay, professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, was leading a field trip of nine students to a SNOTEL, or snowpack telemetry, station at Niwot Ridge. The station is one of over 900 snow monitoring stations located across the West, including more than 100 active sites in Colorado.
These stations autonomously measure and weigh the amount of snow that has fallen. These snow water and snow depth measurements help inform how much water will eventually flow into rivers and reservoirs for use.
But since the establishment of the SNOTEL network starting in the 1960s, scientists have rarely seen numbers as bleak as this year’s.
Across the American West, an unusually warm and dry season has left snowpack at historic lows. In Colorado, peak snowpack was just 40% of normal, and a record-breaking March heatwave triggered snowmelt more than a month early, during what is typically the region’s snowiest time of year.
These unusual conditions are upending a system that more than 80 million people depend on for water and raising concerns about worsening drought, extreme heat and elevated wildfire risk.
“What a wild winter we had in the West,” said Kay, who is also a fellow at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). “It’s really one for record keepers.”
Jennifer Kay (left) and Max Elling(right) about to take to class to the Niwot SNOTEL station.
Stalled jet stream
After a half-hour hike, the class reached the Niwot SNOTEL. At 9,940 feet above sea level, nestled in the shade of conifer trees, there was still some snow on the ground. But over the winter, the Niwot SNOTEL site received only about a quarter of its normal snowfall.
SNOTEL stations use a pillow-like scale and lasers to measure snow daily. While these automated tools are available, scientists still venture out to measure snow by hand, especially around April 1, when snowpack typically peaks, to verify SNOTEL data and maintain records dating back to the 1930s.
Kay’s class was there to learn how to manually dig a snow pit and make snow measurements. Standing next to the Niwot SNOTEL, the students took out a snow shovel from the duffle bag and started digging. It didn’t take long before they hit the ground.
“45 centimeters,” a student called out after putting a wooden ruler against the wall of the snow pit. The snowpack was a little less than 18 inches. When Kay and her graduate student, Max Elling, visited the station three weeks earlier, before the heatwave, it measured about 24 inches.
“Typically, snow at Niwot melts out by late May or early June. But this year, we're seeing near complete melt-off in mid April, driven by the warm and dry conditions,” Kay said. “That’s five to six weeks early. It’s very concerning.”
Snowpack acts like a frozen water tower, storing water in the winter and then releasing it into rivers and reservoirs in early summer.
Snowmelt is particularly important to the American West, because it serves as the primary water source for many states, including Colorado. Niwot Ridge is part of a watershed that provides about 40% of water for the city of Boulder, a town with a population of about 108,000.
The snow drought that heavily affected almost all western States this winter is linked to the interplay between the atmosphere and the ocean, said Andrew Winters, assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.
When the jet stream, a high-altitude band of wind blowing from west to east, meanders near Colorado and other lower-latitude states, it can bring big snowstorms. This winter, however, the jet stream has been locked into place over the U.S.-Canadian border, bringing more precipitation there.
“We've just been stuck in this atmospheric pattern that really hasn't been favorable at all for driving precipitation,” Winters said. “This has led to a snow pattern that's outside of the realm of what we've seen for at least 40 years. ”
The equatorial Pacific Ocean near the equator is currently in its cold phase, known as La Niña. This pattern may have contributed to this northward shift of the jet stream, Winters said. But he pointed out that the jet stream’s response to La Niña can vary. Some favor Colorado snow, while others don’t.
Precipitation is in the forecast for the Colorado mountains, but it is unlikely to make up for the shortfall from this year’s warm and dry winter. The entire state is experiencing some degree of drought, according to data from the U.S Drought Monitor, and numerous Colorado towns have already announced limits on lawn watering and asked restaurants to only serve water by request.
Measuring snow depth and temperatures
Niwot SNOTEL
Observing snowflakes
Fire season on edge
Based on U.S. Department of Agriculture data from the manual snow surveys, the 2026 snow year was the lowest on record across the Upper Colorado River Basin, a watershed spanning four states in the Southwest, since records began in the 1930s.
The 2026 snow year had the lowest maximum annual Snow Water Equivalent observed from manual snow surveys across the Upper Colorado River Basin since the 1930s. (Credit: Keith Musselman and the USDA's Natural Resources Conservation Service)
Keith Musselman, assistant professor in the Department of Geography and the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), said that before this winter, the 2002 water year was one of the driest in Colorado River history, with rivers carrying just a quarter of their usual water. This year’s snowpack, he said, is even lower.
“The year 2002 marked the beginning of a ‘mega-drought’ in the Colorado River Basin,” Musselman said. The drought significantly reduced the amount of water stored in reservoirs, including Lake Mead and Lake Powell, and caused record-sized wildfires.
“There aren’t other analogues to the current low snowpack situation, so it’s challenging to say what is going to happen. But water curtailments and an active wildfire season seem likely.”
Warm weather and the lack of snow cover can create a dangerous situation for wildfires to spark and spread.
In 2002, wildfires burned over 7 million acres in the United States. The Hayman Fire in Colorado, now the fourth largest in the state, burned over 138,000 acres in 20 days and destroyed hundreds of buildings.
“Based on what we've been seeing this winter, it wouldn't surprise me to see a summer that has a greater number of 90-degree days,” Winters said. “With the lack of moisture on the ground, it's not going to take much for wildfire to start this summer.”
A student measuring snow near the Niwot SNOTEL site.
A student looking at snowflakes under a magnifying glass.
Snow hopes ahead
Scientists are unsure where the jet stream may be next winter, Winters said the equatorial Pacific Ocean is forecasted to enter its warm phase, known as El Niño. Typically, during an El Niño, the jet stream tends to migrate slightly southward. If it hovers more frequently near Colorado, parts of the West could see more snow next season,
But it is extremely difficult to predict exactly how the weather will respond to the transition, said Winters.
“El Niño can take many forms,” said Winters. “So this transition may be set up in a way that doesn't favor storm systems to bring moisture to Colorado at all. But there is still a little bit of hope that it will help us out.”
All eyes are on the weather forecast right now. A wetter spring and cooler summer could help reduce the drought’s impact.
“I’m guessing next year will be better for Colorado, but we’ll see what we get,” Kay said. “Historic years like this one are challenging for water and fire, and make us all appreciate the importance of snow for the West. Understanding the odds of having another winter with atmospheric patterns like 2026 is definitely an active and important area of research.”