June 30 Transfer Of Power In Iraq Could Go Fairly Smoothly, CU-Boulder Expert Predicts

A University of Colorado at Boulder expert on nation-building believes the June 30 transfer of power in Iraq could go relatively smoothly, but warns that the road to stable democracy in Iraq will be long and full of pitfalls for the United States.

Roland Paris, CU-Boulder assistant professor of political science and international affairs, has written and researched extensively on the political aftermath of civil wars.

"A whole series of decisions made by the U.S. has put the White House in a very awkward and difficult situation in Iraq," he said. "On one hand, opposition in Iraq to the U.S. presence is growing, but on the other hand, the U.S. can't afford to cut and run. Reconciling those two things is the heart of the challenge."

Enlisting more support from allies to help in Iraq is essential but will be difficult because the U.S. took a unilateral approach to the war, Paris said. Partly to remedy that problem, United Nations envoy Lakhdar Brahimi has been brought in to negotiate the terms of the June 30 transfer and the transition government that will follow.

"I'm not as pessimistic as some people on the transfer of power on June 30 happening relatively smoothly," Paris said. "But the June 30 transfer is just the first step in a multi-year process of stabilizing Iraq.

"Even if other countries contribute more to the operation, the United States has no realistic choice but to remain engaged in Iraq for several years. The alternative would likely be chaos and instability in Iraq and the Middle East."

Paris is the author of "At War's End: Building Peace After Civil Conflict," published this month by Cambridge University Press. The text examines 14 post-conflict nation-building missions launched between 1989 and 1999 that tried to establish new liberal market democracies, including efforts in Bosnia, Kosovo, Cambodia, East Timor and Nicaragua.

None of the countries studied in the book has direct parallels to Iraq, but some of the same lessons apply, Paris said. The key to establishing democracy in a divided society such as Iraq is to build effective institutions, including an independent judiciary and an internal security force.

"Holding one set of elections does not make a country a democracy," he stressed. "You need the institutions to uphold the rule of law and democracy itself."

In other countries, such as Bosnia, Cambodia and Liberia, failure to build effective institutions allowed elections to reinforce the power of undemocratic extremists, Paris said. Elsewhere, including Angola, rushing ahead with elections rekindled civil violence. He noted that Iraq is comprised of 150 tribes and 2,000 clans with no history of democratic politics.

"As opposition to the U.S. presence in Iraq has grown, pressure has mounted in the United States to disengage and finish as quickly as possible," he said. "But the U.S. can't afford to cut and run because building the institutions of a stable democracy takes time," Paris said.

"The only way out of that box is for the U.S. to turn the reconstruction of Iraq into a multilateral operation, an operation that would be perceived by Iraqis as assistance by the international community rather than an occupation by the U.S."

Other countries -- notably Germany, France and Russia -- have a strong interest in ensuring that Iraq does not collapse into chaos and violence, he said. If the United States signaled a change in policy and made a suitable overture to these counties, they might be willing to help.

"June 30 is just the first step. There are many different hurdles to get over, but I think it's quite possible to take that step," Paris said.

But, he added, "even the best case scenario for the U.S. will be a bumpy road."