Daniel Larremore, Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado Boulder
Estimating the Mitigation Potential of Screening Programs for Infectious Diseases
The premise of screening programs for infectious diseases is that screening tests taken on the individual level have effects on population transmission. How can we estimate those effects? What data or assumptions are needed to do so effectively? And, how can estimates be integrated into typical SIR-family transmission models? In this talk, I’ll introduce the idea of test effectiveness, TE, a quantity that can be calculated from information about testing, within-host kinetics, and how individuals behave after receiving a positive diagnosis. Using examples of SARS-CoV-2, RSV, and influenza, we’ll explore the factors that affect TE, and show how one can integrate testing into SIR-family models without directly simulating within-host kinetics, screening programs, and behavioral responses. Joint work with Casey E. Middleton and Kate Bubar.