Sabina Altus, Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado Boulder
Mobility Informed Regional Modeling of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Colorado
The trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic has varied widely by region, and an understanding of these divergent timelines is of great import to local public health officials, as well as our broader epidemiological perception of disease spread. In this talk, a regional approach to modeling the COVID-19 pandemic in Colorado (developed along with the Colorado School of Public Health COVID-19 Modeling Group) is presented. The meta-population model we use to describe and predict the spread of COVID-19 regionally is an age-structured SEIR-based model, informed by cell phone mobility data. We will first present the model, it's limitations, and the most valuable metrics of spread it allows us to produce. Then, we will discuss the role of mobility in this model with particular attention to the insights gained in our analysis of the flow of infection throughout the state, and the feedback between urban and rural areas.