Richard Rotunno, Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory, NCAR
A generalization of Lorentz’s model for the predictability of flows with many scales of motion
The idea that there is an inherent finite range of predictability for certain fluid flows originates with Lorenz (Tellus, 1969). This idea is based on a conception of how a small initial difference (or ‘error’) between two solutions to the fluid-motion equations may grow with time. According to this conception, flows with many scales of motion in which smaller-scale error spreads to larger scales, and in which the error-doubling time decreases with scale, have a finite range of predictability. The L69 theory of limited predictability is now a well understood and accepted part of the canon of dynamical meteorology. Less well understood and accepted is the model upon which L69 based its conclusions. The present work revisits the L69 model, acknowledges known shortcomings, and then remedies them with a new application of the L69 model showing that that model can be a useful analytical tool for understanding atmospheric predictability.
The presentation is based on an upcoming article of the same name by R. Rotunno and C. Snyder.
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Name: Ian Cunningham