Vanja Dukic
Applied Mathematics

Department of Applied Mathematics
University of Colorado-Boulder
Box 526; Boulder, CO 80309-0526


  • Ph.D. (Applied Mathematics) 2001, Brown University

  • M.S. (Applied Mathematics) 1997, Brown University

  • B.A. (Finance; Actuarial Mathematics) 1995, Bryant University

Research interests: 

  • Mathematical Biology
  • Probability or Statistics

Kennedy, D., Dukic, V., Dwyer, G. (2014) "Combining principal component analysis with parameter line-searches to improve the efficacy of Metropolis-Hastings MCMC", Environmental and Ecological Statistics.

Hagar, Y., Albers, D., Pivovarov, R., Chase, H., Dukic, V. and Elhadad, N. (joint senior authors) (2014) "Survival analysis with electronic health record data: Experiments with chronic kidney disease", Statistical Analysis and Data Mining, 7(5):385-403.

Kennedy, D., Dukic, V., Dwyer, G. (2014) "Pathogen growth in insect hosts: inferring the importance of different mechanisms using stochastic models and response time data", The American Naturalist, 184:407--423

Pandya, R., Hodgson, A., Hayden, M., Akweongo, P., Hopson, T., Forgor, A., Yoksas, T., Dalaba, M., Dukic, V., Mera, R., Dumont, A., McCormack, K., Anaseba, D., Awine, T., Boehnert, J., Nyaaba, G., Laing, A., Semazzi, F. (2014) "Using Weather Forecasts to Help Manage Meningitis in the West African Sahel", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Elderd, E., Dwyer, G., and Dukic, V. (2013) “Population-level differences in disease transmission: A Bayesian analysis of multiple smallpox epidemics", Epidemics 5(3):146-156.

Abdussalam, A., Monaghan, A., Steinhoff, D., Dukic, V., Hayden, M., Hopson, T., Thornes, J., Leckebusch, G. (2014) "The impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations", Weather, Climate, and Society, 6:371–379.

Abdussalam, A., Monaghan, A., Dukic, V., Hayden, M., Hopson, T., Leckebusch, G., Thornes, J. (2014) "Climate Influences on Meningitis Incidence in Northwest Nigeria", Weather, Climate, and Society, 6:62–76.

Zhang, Y. and Dukic, V. (2013) “Predicting multivariate insurance loss payments under the Bayesian copula framework", Journal of Risk and Insurance 80(4):891-919.

Dukic, V., and Maric, N. (2013) “Minimum correlation in construction of multivariate distributions”, Physical Review E, 87(3): 032114.

Dukic, V., Lauderdale, D., Daum, R., Wilder, J., David, M. (2013) “Epidemics of Community-Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the United States: A Meta-analysis”, PLoS ONE, 8(1): e52722.

Dukic, V., Lopes, H. and Polson, N. (2012) "Tracking Epidemics With Google Flu Trends Data and a State-Space SEIR Model", Journal of the American statistical Association, 107(500):1410 - 1426.

Dukic, V., Hayden, M., Forgor, A., Hopson, T., Akweongo, P., Hodgson, A., Monaghan, A., Wiedinmyer, C., Yoksas, T., Thomson, M. C., Trzaska, S. and Pandya, R. (2012). “The role of weather in meningitis outbreaks in Navrongo, Ghana: A Generalized Additive Modeling Approach”, Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics (JABES), 17:3 (2012), Page 442-460. DOI: 10.1007/s13253-012-0095-9.

Macal, C., North, M., Collier, N., Dukic, V., Lauderdale, S., David, M., Schumm, P., Daum, R., Evans, J., Wilder, J., Wegener, D. (2012) ”Modeling the Spread of Community-Associated MRSA”, Proceedings of the 2012 Winter Simulation Conference, (C. Laroque, J. Himmelspach, R. Pasupathy, O. Rose, and A.M. Uhrmacher, Eds.)

Bertaccini, P. Dukic, V., and Ignaccolo, R. (2012) “Modeling the Short-Term Effect of Traffic and Meteorology on Air Pollution in Turin with Generalized Additive Models", Advances in Meteorology, special issue on "Forecasting Urban Quality". Article ID 609328; DOI:10.1155/2012/609328.

Land, T., Landau, A., Manning, S., Purtill, J., Pickett, K., Wakschlag, L., Dukic, V. (2012) “Who underreports smoking on birth records: a Monte Carlo predictive model”, PLoS ONE, 7:4:e34853.

Fang, J., Dukic, V., Pickett, K., Wakschlag, L., Espy, K. (2012) “Detecting Graded Exposure Effects: A Report on an East Boston Pregnancy Cohort", Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 14:1115–1120.

Zhang, Y. and Dukic, V. (2012) “Predicting multivariate insurance loss payments under the Bayesian copula framework”, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2012.01480.x

Zhang, Y., Dukic, V., Guszcza, J. (2012). “A Bayesian Nonlinear Model for Forecasting Insurance Loss Payments”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 175:637–656.

Dukic, V., David, M., Lauderdale, D. (2011). “Internet Queries and MRSA Surveillance” Emerging Infectious Diseases, 17:6:1068-1070.

Wakschlag, L., Henry, D., Blair, J., Burns, J., Dukic, V., Pickett, K. (2011) “Unpacking the association: Individual differences in the relation of prenatal exposure to cigarettes and disruptive behavior phenotypes”, Neurotoxicology & Teratology, 33:145-154.

Dukic, V. and Rice, K. (2010) Invited Discussion of "Association Tests that Accommodate Genotyping Uncertainty." Bayesian Statistics, 9:324-331.

Wakschlag, L., Kistner, E., Pine, D., Biesecker, G., Pickett, K., Skol, A., Dukic, V., Blair, J.,Leventhal, B., Cox, N., Burns, J., Kasza, K., Wright ,R., Cook, E. (2009) “Interaction of prenatal exposure to cigarettes and MAOA genotype in pathways to youth antisocial behavior”. Nature - Molecular Psychiatry, 15:928–937.

Pickett, K, Rathouz, P, Dukic, V., Kasza, K., Niessner, M., Wright, R., Wakschlag, L. (2009) The complex enterprise of modeling prenatal exposure to cigarettes: What is “enough”? Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 23, 160-170.

Dignam J, Dukic, V., Anderson S, Mamounas E, Wickerham D, Wolmark N. (2009) Hazard of recurrence and adjuvant treatment effects over time in lymph node-negative breast cancer. Breast Cancer Research and Treatment, 116(3):595-602.

Dignam J,and Dukic, V. (2009) Comments on: Yin W, Di G, Zhou L, Lu J, Liu G, Wu J, Shen K, Han Q, Shen Z, Shao Z. Time-varying pattern of recurrence risk for Chinese breast cancer patients. Breast Cancer Research and Treatment,116(1):209-210.

Dukic, V., Niessner, M*, Pickett, K., Benowitz, N., Wakschlag, L. (2009): “Combining Self-report and Cotinine Measures in Assessing Smoking Exposure: A Monte Carlo Approach”. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 6(6), 1744-1759.

Dukic, V., and Dignam, J. (2008) “Bayesian Hierarchical Multiresolution Hazard Model for the Study of Time-Dependent Failure Patterns in Early Stage Breast Cancer”, in Bayesian Statistics  (Valencia 8), 601--606.

Dukic, V. and  Dignam, J. (2007): “Bayesian Hierarchical Multiresolution Hazard Model for the Study of Time-Dependent Failure Patterns in Early Stage Breast Cancer.” Bayesian Analysis, 2(3): 591--610.

Bouman, P, Meng, XL., Dignam, J., Dukic, V., (2007): ”A Multiresolution Model for Multicenter Survival Data: Application to Breast Cancer Tamoxifen Study.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Case Studies and Applications , 102(480):1145-1157.

Dukic, V., Niessner, M, Benowitz, N., Wakschlag, L. (2007) “Combining Self-report and Cotinine Measures in Assessing Smoking Exposure: A Deterministic Approach”.  Nicotine and Tobacco Research Journal, 9:453-465.

Elderd, B, Dukic, V., Dwyer, G. (2006): ”Uncertainty in Predictions of Disease Spread and Public-Health Responses to Bioterrorism and Emerging Diseases”,  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(42):15693–15697.

Buck-Louis, G., Dukic, V., Haegerty, P., Johnson, C., Louis, T., Ryan, L., Schisterman, E., Trumble, A. (2006): “Analysis of Repeated Pregnancy Outcomes: Methodological Issues”.  Statistical Methods in Medical Research. 15(2):103-126.

Buck-Louis, G., Schisterman, E., Dukic, V., Schieve, L. (2005): “Research Hurdles Complicating Analysis of Infertility Treatment on Child Health”.  Human Reproduction.  20(1): 12-18.

Naureckas, E., Dukic, V., Bao, X, Rathouz, P. (2005): “Validity of Short-Term Beta-Agonist Prescriptions as a Marker for Asthma”. Chest, 128(2):602-608.

Dukic, V. and Peña, E. (2005): Variance Estimation in a Model with Gaussian Sub-Models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Theory and Methods, 100(469): 296-309 

Bouman, P., Dukic, V., and Meng, XL. (2005): Bayesian Multiresolution Hazard Model with Application to An AIDS Reporting Delay Study. Statistica Sinica, 15:325-357

Dukic, V., Gatsonis, C. (2003): Meta-analysis of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Assessment Studies with Varying Number of Thresholds. Biometrics, 59(4):936-946.

Dukic, V. and Hogan, J. (2002): A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modeling embryo implantation following in vitro fertilization. Biostatistics, 3:361-377.