Office: GUGG 107 or SEEC S-348
Research Interests
Three big questions about human behavior in the environment guide my current research and teaching:
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Forecast informed decision-making: Weather and climate forecasts at all scales (from minutes to decades) include uncertainty, but can better decision tools increase their value at current skill levels? I develop quantitative decision models linking probabilistic forecasts to specific weather and climate sensitive decisions.
- Climate Adaptation Science: How and when should managers of climate-sensitive resources change what they're doing in the face of climate change? How do we analyze and model this process in a risk and decision framework?
- Extremes and Risk: What differentiates extreme events from routine, and can we improve our handling of low probability/high consequence risks? Why do disasters occur even when and where we invest significant efforts to make systems and settlements safe?
This research is conducted with support of grants from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to CU's Western Water Assessment; the National Science Foundation (NSF) program on Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems, the USGS National Climate Adaptation Science Centers, the National Drought Mitigation Center, and CU's Grand Challenge/Earth Lab in the Cooperative Institute for Research on Environmental Science (CIRES).
Selected Publications
(Working Paper) Palasti, L.A.* and W.R. Travis “Forecast Informed Decision Making: The Case of Drought Response on the Ranch" Forecast Informed Decision Making_The Case of Drought Response on the Ranch.pdf
(In Review) Iglesias, V., M.W. Rossi, and W.R. Travis. “Measuring the Strength of Coupling between Climate and Natural Resource Production: Dose-Response Functions for Crop Yields.” Global Environmental Change.
Cravens, A., K. Clifford, Katherine; C. Knapp, Corinne; W.R. Travis (2024) "The dynamic feasibility of resisting (R), accepting (A) or directing (D) ecological change" Conservation Biology. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14331
Miller, Brian W., Mitchell J. Eaton, Amy J. Symstad, Gregor W. Schuurman, Imtiaz Rangwala, and W. R. Travis. 2023. “Scenario-Based Decision Analysis: Integrated Scenario Planning and Structured Decision Making for Resource Management under Climate Change.” Biological Conservation 286: 110275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110275.
Dilling, L., M. Daly, W. R. Travis, A. Ray, O. Wilhelmi (2023) “The role of adaptive capacity in incremental and transformative adaptation in three large U.S. urban water systems.” Global Environmental Change 79: 102649. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102649
Iglesias, V., W.R. Travis, and J.K. Balch (2022) “Recent droughts in the United States are among the fastest-developing of the last century.” Weather and Climate Extremes. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100491
Shrum, T. and W.R. Travis (2022) “Experiments in ranching: Rain-index insurance and investment in production and drought risk management.” Applied Economics Perspectives & Policy. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13304
Iglesias, V., Balch, J. K., and Travis, W. R. (2022). “U.S. fires became larger, more frequent, and more widespread in the 2000s.” Science Advances 8 (11). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc0020
Rangwala, I.; Moss, W.; Wolken, J.; Rondeau, R.; Newlon, K.; Guinotte, J.; Travis, W.R. (2021) “Uncertainty, Complexity and Constraints: How Do We Robustly Assess Biological Responses under a Rapidly Changing Climate?” Climate 9, 177. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9120177
Travis, W.R. (2021) “Impacts and adaptation at the climate risk frontier.” Chapter 11 in C. Rosenzweig, M. Parry and M. De Mel, eds., Our Warming Planet: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, pp. 276-293. Singapore: World Scientific.
Iglesias, Virginia, Anna E. Braswell, Maxwell B. Joseph, Caitlin McShane, Matthew W. Rossi, Megan Cattau, Michael J. Koontz, Joe McGlinchy, R. Chelsea Nagy, Jennifer Balch, Stefan Leyk, and W.R. Travis (2021): “Risky development: increasing exposure to natural hazards in the United States.” Earth’s Future. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001795
Clifford, K and W.R. Travis (2021): "The New (ab)Normal: Outliers, everyday exceptionality and the politics of data management in the Anthropocene." Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 111:3, 932-943, DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2020.1785836
Clifford, K., L. Yung, W.R. Travis, R. Rondeau, I. Rangwala, C. Wyborn, N. Burkhardt, and E. Neeley (2020): "Navigating climate adaptation on public lands: how views on ecosystem change and scale interact with management approaches.” Environmental Management 66: 614–628 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-020-01336-y
Balch, J. K., Iglesias, V., Braswell, A. E., Rossi, M. W., Joseph, M. B., Mahood, A. L., Mahood, A.L., Shrum, T., White, C., Scholl, V., McGuire, B., Karban, C., Buckland, M. & Travis, W.R. (2020). Social‐environmental extremes: Rethinking extraordinary events as outcomes of interacting biophysical and social systems. Earth's Future 8: e2019EF001319. DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001319
Clifford, K., W.R. Travis, and L.T. Nordgren (2020): “A climate knowledges approach to climate services.” Climate Services. 10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100155
Williams, T.M. and W.R. Travis (2019): “Evaluating alternative drought indicators in a weather index insurance instrument.” Weather, Climate and Society 11: 629-649. DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0107.1
Dilling, L., M. Daly, D. Kenney, R. Klein, K. Miller, A. Ray, W.R. Travis, O. Wilhelmi (2019): “Drought in urban water systems: Learning lessons for climate adaptive capacity.” Climate Risk Management 23: 32-42. DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2018.11.001
Shrum, T., W.R. Travis, T. Williams, and E. Lih (2018): “Managing climate risks on the ranch with limited drought information.” Climate Risk Management 20: 11-26. DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2018.01.002
Blogs:
https://earthlab.colorado.edu/blog/development-patterns-increase-hazard-...
High-Impact Weather and Climate Events in Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah, 1862–2022”
Data base developed by: J. Lukas, A. McCurdy, K. Wolter, and W. Travis. Up-dated in 2022 by E. Knight, L. Woelders, and L. Peyton.
http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/extremes/database/
The Work of Robert W. Kates
I maintain a website celebrating and archiving the scholarship of geographer Robert W. Kates. It offers a perspective on the evolution of environment and society theory and research via one scholar's lifetime effort on hazards, climate change, population & resources, and sustainability:
http://www.rwkates.org/index.html
see also: Travis, W.R. (2018) “Robert W. Kates (1929–2018): Grappled with problems of the human environment.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (31) 7844-7845; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810131115
Recent Courses Taught
- Fall 2024 GEOG 3412 Conservation Practice and Resource Management
- Fall 2024 GEOG 4501/5501 Water Issues in the American West
- Spring 2024 GEOG 1962 Geographies of Global Change
- Spring 2024 GEOG 3402 Natural Hazards
- Fall 2023 GEOG 4501/5501 Water Resources and Water Management of Western US
- Spring 2023 GEOG 1962 Geographies of Global Change
- Spring 2023 GEOG 3402 Natural Hazards
- Fall 2022 GEOG 3412 Conservation Practice and Resource Management
- Spring 2022 GEOG 3402 Natural Hazards
- Spring 2022 GEOG 4501/5501 Water Resources and Water Management of Western US
- Spring 2021 GEOG 3402 Natural Hazards
- Spring 2021 GEOG 4501/5501 Water Resources and Water Management of Western US
- Fall 2020 GEOG 3402 Natural Hazards
- Spring 2020 GEOG 1962 Geographies of Global Change
- Fall 2019 GEOG 3402 Natural Hazards
- Spring 2019 GEOG 5161 Research Design