colorado river flow through canyon

Funding Agency
Bureau of Reclamation

Research Team

  • Sarah Baker, PhD candidate, Reclamation engineer in training
  • Edie Zagona and Balaji Rajagopalan, CADSWES
  • Andrew Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
  • Jim Prairie, Bureau of Reclamation

A testbed was developed using the Bureau of Reclamation's Mid-Term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM) to assess streamflow forecasts and operational projections in the Colorado River Basin for a Master's Report project. The current uncertainty and error of out-year (lead times beyond current year) streamflow forecasts and operational projections were assessed.

A testbed was then created to establish a protocol for testing the performance of streamflow forecasts and modeled operational projections. Operational forecasts, such as ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) and research-grade streamflow forecasts, are now being evaluated in the testbed to determine the skill of alternative streamflow forecasts.