Manuscripts 2017
The decline and shifting geography of violence in Russia's North Caucasus, 2010-2016
Holland, E., F. Witmer and J. O’Loughlin
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol 58, No. 6 (2017)
Abstract:
A spatial analysis of the geography of insurgency in the North Caucasus of Russia from 1999 through the end of 2016, focused on the period since 2010, corroborates other work on the incidence of violence in the region. A sharp drop in the absolute number of conflict events over the past half-decade occurred as violence diffused from Chechnya in the mid-2000s and is attributable to a range of domestic and international factors. Domestically, the decline is broadly linked to the securitization of the region around the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, the return to the use of the Kremlin power vertical as a system of political management after an interlude focused on economic development as a mitigation strategy, and the wider adoption of harsh management tactics at the regional and republic scales. Internationally, potential insurgents have left Russia to fight in the Middle East and Ukraine. Using a conflict-event data-set (N = 18,960) from August 1999 through the end of 2016 and focusing on the period since the creation of the North Caucasus Federal District in January 2010, the paper identifies a set of notable trends within the decline and shift in violence. Key findings include a percentage increase in arrests carried out by Russian security services, a decline in retaliation across conflict actors, and the failure of federal subsidies to contribute to declines in violence in the region. The long-term prospects for continued insurgency in the North Caucasus, specifically in light of the collapse of the Islamic State and Russia's domestic challenges, remain uncertain and should acknowledge the recent decline in violence in the region.
Supporting data available for download from the data page
Manuscripts 2011
The Localized Geographies of Violence in the North Caucasus of Russia, 1999-2007
John O'Loughlin and Frank Witmer
Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol 101, No. 1 (2011)
Abstract:
The second Chechen war, starting in the North Caucasus in August 1999, shows few signs of a ceasefire after eleven years, although the level of violence has declined from the peaks of the war’s first two years. Initially framed by both sides as a war of separatists versus the federal center, the situation is now complicated by the installation of a Moscow ally into power in Chechnya and by the splintering of the opposition into groups with diverse aims and theaters of operation. The main rebel movement has declared the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in all the Muslim republics of the North Caucasus as its ultimate goal. Fears of regional destabilization of the entire North Caucasus of Russia are propelled by reports of increased militant activism in republics adjoining Chechnya due to possible contagion effects of violence in these poor areas. Temporal and spatial descriptive statistics of a large database of 14,177 violent events, geocoded by precise location, from August 1999 to August 2007, provide evidence of the conflict’s diffusion into the republics bordering Chechnya. “Hot spots” of violence are identified using Kulldorff’s SaTScan statistics. A geographically weighted regression predictive model of violence indicates that locations in Chechnya and forested areas have more violence, whereas areas with high Russian populations and communities geographically removed from the main federal highway through the region see less violence.
Manuscripts 2010
Ethnic Competition, Radical Islam, and Challenges to Stability in the Republic of Dagestan
Edward C. Holland and John O'Loughlin
Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol 43 No. 3 (2010)
Abstract:
Previous academic work on stability in Dagestan has focused on two potential cleavages,
the republic’s ethnic diversity and the challenge from radical Islamist groups. Using results
from a December 2005 survey, and focusing on Dagestan’s six main ethnic groups, this
paper investigates attitudes towards the dual topics of the politicization of ethnicity and
the relationship between terrorism and Islamism. We find that Dagestanis maintain
layered conceptions of identity, and do not attribute violence predominantly to radical
Islam in the republic or the wider North Caucasus. Scholars should be aware of Rogers
Brubaker’s concept of groupism in analyzing not just ethnic groups, but religious movements
as well.
Inter-ethnic friendships in postwar Bosnia-Herzegovina: Socio-demographic and place influences
John O'Loughlin
Ethnicities, Vol 10, No. 1 (2010)
Abstract:
International concerns about the continued ethnicization of Bosnian social and
political life are both validated and challenged by this December 2005 public opinion study.
Ordinary Bosnians are willing to consider cross-ethnic friendships and cooperation. The gap
between ethnic elites and entrepreneurs and their constituents is evident still in Bosnia-
Herzegovina (BiH). The optimistic note of this study is sounded by the fact that half of
respondents in BiH want more friends from different nationalities. The differences between the
three ethnic groups are not dramatic. However, 41% of respondents stated that all or most of
their friends were from their own nationality. Analysis of the responses by geographic location
and by explanations related to modernization, ethnic competition and war experiences
indicated that all proved useful in understanding the distributions. The geographic
distributions indicated the primacy of the urban-rural factor for questions on current friendship
networks and preferences for friends in other ethnic groups.
Manuscripts 2009
Placing blame: Making sense of Beslan
Gearóid Ó Tuathail
Political Geography, Vol. 28 (2009)
Abstract:
The aftermaths of terrorist spectacles are intensely consequential moments in the making of geopolitical
meaning. This paper develops a critical geopolitical account of the ways in which key actors involved in
the terrorist incident at School Number 1 in Beslan North Ossetia constructed its meaning and justified
their actions. The event is examined from three perspectives: the terrorist’s Beslan, the Kremlin’s Beslan
and the contested meaning of Beslan among Ossetians and others in the North Caucasus. Multiple
sources are utilized in the construction of the account: an English language archive of Russian reporting
on the event, accounts of the siege, statements by key protagonists, elite interviews in North Ossetia, and
the results of a survey question in North Ossetia and the North Caucasus on Beslan. The paper examines
the construction of blame by the various actors and relates it to indiscriminate geographies, sweeping
acts of abstraction whose homogenizing effects make (counter)terrorist violence possible.
Reconciliation in Conflict-Affected Societies: Multilevel Modeling of Individual and Contextual Factors in the North Caucasus of Russia
Kristin M. Bakke, John O'Loughlin, and Michael D. Ward
Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 99 No. 5 (2009)
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, there has been a growing interest in reconciliation in societies emerging from
conflict. The North Caucasus region of Russia has experienced multiple and diverse conflicts since the
collapse of the Soviet Union, though violence is now at its lowest level over the past decade We examine
willingness to forgive members of other ethnic groups for violence that they have perpetuated as an
indicator of the potential for reconciliation in the region. Using the data from a large representative survey
that we conducted in five ethnic republics in the North Caucasus in December 2005, we analyze
responses to the forgiveness dependent variable in relation to social-psychological models of
reconciliation and we add a key geographic measure, distance to violent events, to the usual theories.
Using the survey data (n=2000) and aggregate data for the 82 sampling points, we use a multi-level
modeling approach to separate out the effects of individual and contextual factors. We find little support
for the Social Identity Theory expectations as ethnic hostility is not an important factor, except for the
Ossetians, a mostly-Orthodox minority disproportionately affected by multiple conflicts and the Beslan
school killings. Instead, personal experiences of violence and terrorism, the impacts of military actions
against communities, differences in general trust of others, and the extent to which the respondent’s life
has been changed by violence negatively influence the willingness to forgive. Conversely, respondents in
ethnic Russian communities and those relatively close to violence are more willing to engage in postconflict
reconciliation.
After ethnic cleansing: Return outcomes in Bosnia-Herzegovina a decade beyond war
Gearóid Ó Tuathail and John O'Loughlin
Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 99 No. 5 (2009)
Abstract:
Ethnic cleansing is a violent geopolitical practice designed to separate and segregate
ethnic groups. This paper describes both the war aims which justified ethnic cleansing
in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the effort by the international community to enable victims
of ethnic cleansing to return to their homes. It considers the trends and geography of
population returns ten years after the war before presenting original survey research
results on displacement and return experiences. An overwhelming majority of Bosnians
reclaimed their pre-war property and a majority of these actually returned to their
homes. Those self-identifying as Bosnian Serbs were more likely to sell their pre-war
homes than other ethnic groups; they also tend to be less interested in multiethnicity.
The poor were more likely to reclaim and return to live in their house than richer
groups. Those with strong attachment to their home villages were more likely to return.
But despite more than a million returns, nearly half of whom are officially minority
returns, Bosnia continues to grapple with the divisive legacy of ethnic cleansing.
Satellite data methods and application in the evaluation of war outcomes: Abandoned agricultural land in Bosnia-Herzegovina after the 1992-1995 conflict.
Frank Witmer and John O'Loughlin
Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 99 No. 5 (2009)
Abstract:
The devastation of wars is most often measured in terms of the number of dead and missing people,
but other conflict effects are long-lasting and far-reaching. The 1992-1995 war in Bosnia-
Herzegovina resulted in almost 100,000 killed and almost half of the population displaced. This
paper analyzes the war’s effects by evaluating impacts on the post-war agriculture environment from
which most Bosnians derive their livelihoods. The war’s impacts showed significant geographic
variability with localities near the frontlines and in eastern Bosnia-Herzegovina particularly affected.
Thirty meter Landsat imagery from before, during and after the war was used to identify abandoned
agricultural land in two study areas (northeast and south) within Bosnia-Herzegovina, characterized
by different climates, soil, and vegetation. In the image analysis methodology, multiple change
detection techniques were tested, and ultimately a supervised classification was chosen. Ground
reference data collected during the Springs of 2006 and 2007 show the remote sensing methodology
is effective in identifying abandoned agricultural land for the northeast study region but not for the
southern one. The differential success rates were due primarily to variations in climate and soil
conditions between the two regions, but also point to contrasts due to the different nature of the war
in the two study regions. The study has important implications for the use of remote sensing data in
tracking the course of conflicts and evaluating their long-term impacts.
Social Distance in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the North Caucasus Region of Russia:
Inter and Intra-Ethnic Attitudes and Identities
Kristin Bakke, Xun Cao, John O’Loughlin, Michael D. Ward
Nations and Nationalism, Vol. 15 No. 2 (2009)
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine ethnic divisions in conflict-affected and post-conflict
societies. Conventional wisdom tells us that societies that have experienced violent
struggles in which individuals of different ethnic groups have (been) mobilized
against each other are likely to become ossified along ethnic lines. Indeed, both
policy-makers and scholars often assume that such divisions are one of the main
challenges that must be overcome to restore peace after war. We comparatively examine
this conventional wisdom by mapping dimensions of social distance among 4,000 survey
respondents in Bosnia and the North Caucasus region of Russia. The surveys were
carried out in December 2005. Using multidimensional scaling, we do not find patterns
of clear attitudinal cleavages among members of different ethnic groups in Bosnia. Nor
do we find patterns of clear ethnic divisions in the North Caucasus, although our
social distance matrices reveal a difference between Russians and ethnic minority groups.
Manuscripts 2008
Russia’s Kosovo: A Critical Geopolitics of the August 2008 War over South Ossetia
Gearóid Ó Tuathail (Gerard Toal)
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol. 49 No. 6 (2008)
Abstract:
A noted political geographer presents an analysis of the August 2008 South
Ossetian war. He analyzes the conflict from a critical geopolitical perspective sensitive to the
importance of localized context and agency in world affairs and to the limitations of statecentric
logics in capturing the connectivities, flows, and attachments that transcend state borders
and characterize specific locations. The paper traces the historical antecedents to the
August 2008 conflict and identifies major factors that led to it, including legacies of past violence,
the Georgian president’s aggressive style of leadership, and renewed Russian “great
power” aspirations under Putin. The Kosovo case created normative precedents available for
opportunistic localization. The author then focuses on the events of August 2008 and the
competing storylines promoted by the Georgian and Russian governments
Социально-территориальная
динамика и этнические
отношения на
Северном
Кавказе
Socio-Territorial Dynamics and Ethnic Relations in the Northern Caucasus
Vladimir Kolossov and John O’Loughlin
Political Studies, No. 4 (2008)
Изучено
влияние
меняющейся
социально-экономической
ситуации на
межэтнические
отношения на
Северном
Кавказе, в
частности претензиями
на
национальную
исключительность
и этнически
«чистую»
территорию.
Задачей
работы было
выяснить
степень
доверия в
отношениях
между этническими
группами в
зависимости
от особенностей
географического
места. Исследование
включало
многомерную
типологию городов
и районов
пяти
регионов
Северного
Кавказа и
проведенный
на ее основе
опрос 2000 тысяч
респондентов.
Сопоставлена
статистическая
и
социологическая
информация
по характерным
типам
городских и
сельских
поселений.
Abstract:The subject of this article is the influence of the changing socio-economic
situation on interethnic relations in the Northern Caucasus, in particular through
claims of national exclusiveness and ethnically 'pure' territory. The aim of the study
is to elaborate the extent of trust in the relations between ethnic groups, as
influenced by contextual differences in the geographical locations of the samples. The
research developed a multi-dimensional typology of cities (or towns) and districts of
five regions (republics) of the Northern Caucasus of Russia and a poll of 2000
respondents, sampled on the basis of the typology of locales. Statistical and
sociological information corresponding to characteristic types of urban and rural
settlements is compared to the attitudes of the populations in these communities.
The Localized Geopolitics of Displacement and Return in Eastern Prigorodnyy Rayon, North Ossetia
John O’Loughlin, Gearóid Ó Tuathail (Gerard Toal), and Vladimir Kolossov
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol. 49 No. 6 (2008)
Abstract:
Three noted political geographers examine the geopolitical entanglements of the
republic of North Ossetia in Russia’s North Caucasus, where the country’s first violent post-
Soviet conflict occurred. The dynamic history of administrative border changes in the region
is reviewed against the backdrop of population movements (most dramatically Stalin’s 1944
deportation of the Ingush people) and shifting federal-local alliances. The primary focus is on
the unresolved territorial dispute in Prigorodnyy Rayon, affected strongly by population displacement
from Georgia in the early 1990s. After reviewing the causes of this dispute, which
flared into open warfare in late October 1992, the paper examines two of its outcomes: the
localized geopolitics of displacement and return on the ground in Prigorodnyy, and the impact
of North Ossetia’s geopolitical entanglements in general on ethnic attitudes. Results of a public
opinion survey (N = 2000) in the North Caucasus conducted by the authors revealed high
levels of ethnic pride among Ossetians and a generally positive attitude toward relations with
other nationalities. Duly noted is the August 2008 confrontation involving Russia and Georgia
over neighboring South Ossetia, which generated a new flow of refugees.
Detecting war-induced abandoned agricultural land in northeast
Bosnia using multispectral, multitemporal Landsat TM imagery
Frank Witmer
International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 29 No. 13 (2008)
Abstract:The use of satellite technology by military planners has a relatively long history as a
tool of
warfare, but little research has used satellite technology to study the
effects of war. This
research addresses this gap by applying satellite remote sensing imagery to study the effects
of war on land-use/land-cover change in northeast Bosnia. Though the most severe war
impacts are visible at local scales (e.g. destroyed buildings), this study focuses on impacts
to agricultural land. Four change detection methods were evaluated for their effectiveness
in detecting abandoned agricultural land using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data from
before, during, and after the 1992-95 war. Ground reference data were collected in May of
2006 at survey sites selected using a stratified random sampling approach based on the
derived map of abandoned agricultural land. Fine resolution Quickbird imagery was also
used to verify the accuracy of the classification. Results from these analyses show that a
supervised classification of the Landsat TM data identified abandoned agricultural land
with an overall accuracy of 82.5%. The careful use of freely available Quickbird imagery,
both as training data for the supervised classifier and as supplementary ground reference
data, suggest these methods are applicable to other civil wars too dangerous for researchers’
field work.
Accounting for Separatist Sentiment in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the North Caucasus of Russia: A Comparative Analysis of Survey Responses
John O'Loughlin and Gearóid Ó Tuathail (Gerard Toal)
Ethnic and Racial Studies (2008)
Abstract: A tenet of modern studies of nationalism is that mobilized nations will want to live separately
from members of other groups to achieve ethno-territorial goals. A comparison of attitudes to a
question on preferences for ethnic separatism for two zones of conflict, Bosnia-Herzegovina and
the North Caucasus of Russia reveals large differences both between and within the regions.
For the 2000 respondents surveyed in each region in December 2005, more than half of those in
Bosnia-Herzegovina believed that geographic separatism will improve the state of ethnic
relations while the comparative figure for the North Caucasus was only 13 per cent. When
examining sub-categories of the ethnic groups in each region, traditional social science factors,
like religiosity, perceived income and levels of pride yielded significant differences but more so
for Bosnia-Herzegovina than for the North Caucasus. Intuitive factors, such as experience with
violence during the wars, were not consistently revealing and significant. The best explanations
for separatist sentiment in both locations were geographical location (individual towns and
counties) and respondents’ levels of general trust.
Manuscripts 2007
Spatial analysis of civil war violence
John O'Loughlin and Clionadh Raleigh
In K. Cox, M. Low and J. Robinson (eds) A Handbook of Political Geography, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 2007 Chapter 30
Abstract:The focus of this chapter is to understand the
distribution of these civil wars across the globe and to indicate some significant gaps in the
research on the geography of violent domestic conflicts. We also identify what we see as
promising avenues of research that link political geographic approaches to the much larger
accumulation of research in political science and economics on the causes and frequency of civil
wars.
Preface to the Special Issue and Caucasus Map Supplement
John O'Loughlin, Frank Witmer, Thomas Dickinson, Nancy Thorwardson, and Edward Holland
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:The papers in this special issue are designed to illustrate key aspects of the Caucasus region fifteen years after the end of the Soviet Union. For such a region that is so complex in both physiographic and human features, we had to be quite selective in our choice of subjects. As a result, we present an overview of the region as well as five specialized papers on aspects of the economic, political and population geography of the Caucasus. Originally, we intended to focus solely on the North Caucasus, the Russian part of the region, but because the links across the Caucasus are still intense in political and human terms, we decided to include one paper by Jean Radvanyi and Shakhmardan Muduev that considers the nature of these linkages from Transcaucasia (as the Russians call it) and the North Caucasus. Two papers offer more detail about the post-Soviet population developments in the two largest regions, Stavropol’ Kray and the Republic of Dagestan, a paper reflects on the impacts of the Chechen wars on the neighboring regions, and a fifth article contrasts the perspectives from the federal center, Moscow and those from the various stripes of political ideology in Russia with the opinions of the local populations about the causes of conflicts in the region.
The Caucasus in a Time of Conflict, Demographic Transition, and Economic Change
John O'Loughlin, Vladimir Kolossov, Jean Radvanyi
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:
In an introductory paper to a special issue of Eurasian Geography and Economics, the authors examine contemporary economic, social, demographic, and political developments in the Caucasus in light of their historical contexts. They emphasize the need to look beyond simple ethnic categories to understand the nature of local tensions and also propose that the profound nature of the post-Soviet upheavals has uprooted long-standing practices. The paper covers physical diversity, historical and administrative geopolitics, Stalinist deportations in the 1940s, and post-Soviet demographic and economic developments. An introduction to each of the five papers comprising the special issue follows the regional overview.
Challenges Facing the Mountain Peoples of the Caucasus
Jean Radvanyi, Shakhmardan S. Muduyev
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:
Two geographers report on the current challenges facing the inhabitants of the Caucasus mountains on the borders of Russia and its southern neighbors, Georgia and Azerbaijan. The authors discuss the impacts of new post-Soviet borders and controls as well as unresolved conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Chechnya, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and the Prigorodnyy district of North Ossetia, which have disrupted traditional ways of life and forced the peoples of the mountains to migrate or adjust their economic activities. Based on extensive field work in 2005-2006, and in the 1990s, they detect some signs of improvement in the new privatized environment after the difficult years of transition. However, the weak infrastructure of the region, combined with the high costs associated with development and modernization of peripheral locations, suggest that resettlement from the high mountains to the cities on the plains and piedmont is likely to continue.
The Wars in Chechnya and Their Effects on Neighboring Regions
Olga I. Vendina, Vitaliy S. Belozerov, and Andrew Gustafson
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:
A team of Russia- and U.S.-based geographers presents and discusses the economic and demographic consequences of the conflicts in Chechnya on that republic, on the neighboring ethnic republics of the North Caucasus, as well as on the adjoining region of Stavropol' with a majority of Russian inhabitants. Formal economic indicators, which generally exhibit negative trends since 1991, are contrasted with the large, diverse shadow economy that tends to absorb federal development funding diverted from the formal sector to the benefit of local elites. The authors explore the extent to which economic activity once based in Chechnya is dispersed to contiguous regions, discuss changes in the ethnic composition of the republics ("de-Russification"), and consider whether Chechnya and the adjoining republics will ever regain the close economic, political, and social ties with Russia that prevailed during the Soviet period.
An Empire's Fraying Edge? The North Caucasus Instability in Contemporary Russian Geopolitical Culture
Vladimir Kolossov and Gerard Toal
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:
A Russian and a U.S.-based political geographer explore how geopolitical cultures and traditions function in imagining and discursively framing events in specific regions within a particular state. More specifically, this paper undertakes a focused examination of competing elite storylines in Russian geopolitical culture about the North Caucasus during an eventful year (October 2005-September 2006) that encompassed the large-scale terrorist attack against the city of Nal'chik, the change of leadership in Dagestan, and the assassination of the prominent terrorist Shamil Basayev by federal forces. The paper first summarizes Kremlin, left/Communist, national-patriotic, and liberal "storylines" on the basis of a content analysis of major periodicals representing each of these viewpoints, followed by a survey of the opinions of ordinary citizens in the North Caucasus (n = 2,000) regarding the validity of these storylines.
Resettlement and Migration in Post-Soviet Dagestan
Eldar M. Eldarov, Edward C. Holland, Sharafudin M. Aliyev, Zaid M. Abdulagatov, and Zagir V. Atayev
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:
This paper investigates migratory patterns in the North Caucasian republic of Dagestan. It relies on prior literature, both in Russian and English, to establish the basic form of migration in the republic and recent census data to describe these patterns. The authors then analyze responses from a December 2005 survey of Dagestani residents about their migration intentions to investigate the motivations underlying these patterns. The paper investigates the extent to which economic incentives vis-à-vis other traditional assumptions associated with migration theory maintain in the case of Dagestan, and explores the impact of migration on interethnic relations in the republic.
Population Change and Migration in Stavropol' Kray: The Effects of Regional Conflicts and Economic Restructuring
John O’Loughlin, Alexander Panin, and Frank Witmer
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:
The paper, by a joint American-Russian team of researchers, examines major changes in population composition and migration structure in Stavropol' Kray since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In addition to documenting increased rural- to urban-migration, the authors explore impacts on the kray of nearby conflicts in ethnic republics of the North Caucasus and in Transcaucasia, particularly the shift in ethnic composition of rural rayons in eastern Stavropol' (from Russian to non-Russian populations) and migration of Armenians and Russians to cities in western Stavropol'. Responses to a December 2005 survey (conducted by the authors) on past and possible future moves are presented together with an assessment of factors underlying the decision to move (mostly economic), as mediated by age, economic status, and gender. Also included is a detailed account of shifts in a typical rayon (Krasnogvardeyskiy—the birthplace of Mikhail Gorbachev) revealing trends that bode ill for service provision and a turnaround in negative population trends.
Manuscripts 2006
Cooperation without Trust in Conflict Ridden Societies: Survey Results from Bosnia and the North Caucasus.
Michael D. Ward, John V. O'Loughlin, Kristin M. Bakke & Xun Cao.
August 2006.
Abstract: Bosnia and the North Caucasus are ethnically diverse, post-communist societies, where the different ethnic groups at times have co-existed peacefully and at other times have found themselves at odds with one another or their governments. This study examines beliefs in the possibility of inter-ethnic cooperation in each society, based on survey instruments aimed at measuring attitudes and preferences towards the contemporary situation, socio-demographic characteristics, and the nature of cross-national relations in the light of experiences of conflict and continued unsettled political environment of the region. Our dependent variable, belief in the possibility of inter-ethnic cooperation, is a categorical variable based on responses the following survey stub: Among national groups, it is possible to create cooperation but never to fully trust. We measure and correct for survey response incomparability across BiH and the North Caucasus by using the anchoring vignette along with an estimation technique called chopit (short for compound hierarchical ordered probit), which allows us to incorporate anchoring vignettes.
We find that there is a substantial belief in the possibility of inter-ethnic cooperation both in BiH and the North Caucasus, in spite of substantial inter-ethnic violence in each location. Moreover, it appears that while the violent ethnic conflict in the recent history of BiH has created greater barriers to inter-ethnic cooperation, but the vast majority of Croats, Bosniacs, and Serbs, agree or strongly agree that cooperation is possible, even without the elusive inter-ethnic ``trust.'' The same is true in the North Caucasus region, although we have not been able to conduct surveys in Chechnya or Ingusetia. Beyond ascriptive and demographic characteristics, very few attitudinal variables seem to be important in determining this belief in the possibility of cooperation. However, ``pocketbook'' issues seem quite prominent as those in BiH and the North Caucasus who believe that things are getting better and who also have higher levels of material well being are more optimistic about cooperation. Those still struggling to survive, or who perceive their situation to continue to deteriorate are less optimistic about inter-ethnic cooperation.
Bosnia-Herzegovina Ten Years after Dayton: Constitutional Change and Public Opinion
Gearóid Ó Tuathail (Gerard Toal), John O’Loughlin, and Dino Djipa
Eurasian Geography and Economics (2006)
Abstract: Two American-based political geographers and the head of a Bosnian public opinion
research organization present and discuss the results of public opinion polls related to the
tenth anniversary of the Dayton Peace Accords. The paper reviews talks between Bosnia-
Herzegovina (BiH) and the European Union (EU) aimed at signing a Stabilization and Association
Agreement that should pave the way for eventual membership of BiH in the EU, a
process that would stimulate reform of BiH’s notoriously complex governance structure. The
most recent constitutional change proposals are reviewed, and results of public opinion surveys
(N = 614–2000 in late 2005) on constitutional change, reform of the governance structure
of BiH state, and the Dayton Peace Accords after ten years are presented and discussed.
