IBS Newsletter

July-August 1999

Institute of Behavioral Science
University of Colorado

Program Activities

Population Processes Program

Jane Menken attended the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) meeting on April 24-27 in Washington, DC where she organized, chaired, and participated in a panel session "World Population Change." She also attended the National Institute of Health's (NIH) Advisory Committee to the Director, on June 3. On June 7-8 she participated in a panel on aging research as Chair of the parent Committee on Population, National Research Council, NAS. On June 17-18 she attended NIH's Office of the Director Budget Retreat in which she met with NIH Director, Harold Varmus, directors of all NIH Institutes, and selected members of Advisory Committees to discuss plans for the 2001 NIH budget.

On March 24-27 the Bangladesh research group, including Menken and graduate students Nizam Khan and Jill Williams, attended the annual meeting of the Population Association of America in New York. They presented two papers, "The Role of Female Education in the Bangladesh Fertility Decline" and "Education, Empowerment and Health of Women in Rural Bangladesh."

Population Processes Program In Print

Rogers, Andrei and James Raymer, March 1999. "Fitting Observed Demographic Rates with the Multiexponential Model Schedule: An Assessment of Two Estimation Programs." Urban and Regional Development Studies, 11(1), pp. 1-10. The process of finding the best fitting model can often be time consuming and tedious. Most computer programs are specialized and require initial parameter estimates to fit a particular curve. Useful programs are versatile in their applications, allowing inputs of "rough" parameter estimates for finding the optimal ones. This paper focuses on approaches for fitting observed age-specific demographic data with the multiexponential model schedule and uses two curve-fitting computer programs: MODEL and TableCurve2D. These programs are assessed according to how well and how simply they can be used to fit age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration rates.

Rogers, Andrei and Sabine Henning. 1999. "The Internal Migration Patterns of the Foreign-Born and Native-Born Populations in the United States: 1975-80 and 1985-90." International Migration Review, 33(2), pp. 403-429. The focus of this article is on an examination of the influence of birthplace on the internal migration and spatial redistribution patterns of the foreign-born and native-born populations in the United States during the 1975-80 and 1985-90 periods. The analyses presented here consider the following principal questions: 1) What are the internal migration patterns of the foreign-born population in the United States and how do they differ from those of the native-born population? 2) How do the relocating choices of various birthplace-specific foreign-born and native-born populations differ from each other? 3) Are the internal migration patterns generating an increased or a decreased geographical concentration of such birthplace-specific subgroups?

Rogers, Andrei and James Raymer. 1999. "Estimating the Regional Migration Patterns of the Foreign-Born Population in the United States: 1950-1990." Mathematical Population Studies, 7(3), pp. 181-216. The authors apply model schedules to graduate data for the 1950-1990 period. Prior to the graduation we "cleanse" the observed foreign-born data of obvious inconsistencies and errors arising from a small sample size. No observed data are available for emigration, forcing the authors to draw on methods of indirect estimation to obtain it. To find estimates of the unrecorded migration flows in between the four census-defined periods in the study (that is, for 1950-1955, 1960-1965, 1970-1975, and 1980-1985) the authors interpolate between the data of adjacent census time periods. Finally, the authors combine the estimated migration data with the corresponding mortality data to calculate and analyze the multiregional life tables and projections associated with each five-year time interval.

Environment and Behavior Program

Charles W. Howe participated in the annual meeting of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists on June 25-27 in Oslo, Norway. He presented a paper on "Protecting Public Values in a Water Market Setting" and participated in the planning of the Second World Congress of Environment and Resource Economists to be held in western North America in June, 2002. On July 12-15, he participated as lead author of the chapter on water resources in a sub-meeting of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at a meeting held at the University of Southampton, U.K.

John D. Wiener attended NASA/NOAA's meeting "Evidence of Drought in the Great Plains" on June 22-24 in Boulder. He was invited to present his paper, "Impacts of the Modern Droughts." This presentation informally reported results from a study of the impacts of the drought of the 1950s in the US, with some comparison from other investigators (notably Bill Riebsame, former director of the Natural Hazards Research Center) of other droughts. The presentation centered on impacts at the national level and addressed impacts on agriculture in particular. The study will be reported as a chapter in a forthcoming book not yet completely edited.

Environment and Behavior Program In Print

White, Gilbert F. July-August 1999. Editorial: "Changing Perceptions of Water Management." Environment, 41(6), inside cover page. This uses an article on "Changing Course: Water Policy in Spain," to indicate how planning for multipurpose water development has changed over the preceding 70 years. The emphasis on providing more dependable supplies has been challenged, new criteria have been introduced to deal with political and economic feasibility, and the value of maintaining environmental integrity are being viewed in a broader perspective.

Natural Hazards Center

The Natural Hazards Center hosted its 24th Annual Hazards Research and Applications Workshop on July 11-14 at the Regal Harvest House in Boulder. A highlight of the workshop was the keynote address on Monday by James Lee Witt, Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and a member of President Clinton's cabinet. A total of 41 plenary and concurrent sessions covered topics as diverse as Y2K, popular culture and disaster, Hurricane Mitch, linking sustainable development with hazard mitigation, and disaster resistant universities. Three hundred twenty-nine people attended the workshop--the largest participation ever. Thirty-three percent of the attendees were at the workshop for the first time. Several international participants joined, coming from Canada, Indonesia, Japan, Nepal, Great Britain, and Honduras.

Dennis Mileti briefed a variety of conferences and workshops on the outcomes of the project "Assessment of Research and Applications on Natural Hazards" that officially ended on May 19, with the publications of the summary book listed in the last issue of the IBS Newsletter. On June 8 he gave the keynote address, "The Second Assessment: Implications for Disaster Public Education" to the Community and Family Preparedness Conference, National Emergency Training Center, Emergency Management Institute, Federal Emergency Management Agency, in Mt. Weather, Virginia. On June 29 he presented the speech "Natural Hazards Research Update," to the 1999 National All-Hazards Mitigation Workshop, Mt. Weather Emergency Assistance Center, Federal Emergency Management Agency, in Mt. Weather, Virginia.

Mary Fran Myers participated in one of a series of briefings sponsored by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research on "Science in the Service of Society." This briefing, "Floodplain Management: Options in the U.S." was held on June 9 in Washington, DC. The presentations focused on historical damage in the U.S. and specifically addressed the issues of Federal Disaster Declarations related to flooding, as well as the implications of the research for national flood policies.

Natural Hazards Center In Print

Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability of the National Research Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: National Academy of Science. (Dennis Mileti served on the panel.)

Fothergill, Alice. March 1999. "An Exploratory Study of Woman Battering in the Grand Forks Flood Disaster: Implications for Community Responses and Policies." International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 17(1), pp. 79-98. This article is part of the author's qualitative dissertation on women's experiences in the 1997 flood in Grand Forks, North Dakota. Fothergill presents two case studies of battered women to enhance understanding of what intimate partner violence means to women in the face of natural disaster. The case studies illustrate how battered women make sense of their situations and how factors such as class and disability play a role in how women experience domestic violence. The case studies also show why services for battered women, such as emergency shelters and crisis counseling, are crucial during a disaster period.

Fothergill, Alice, Enrique G.M. Maestas and JoAnne DeRouen Darlington. June 1999. "Race, Ethnicity and Disasters in the United States: A Review of the Literature." Journal of Disaster Studies, Policy and Management, 23(2), pp. 156-73. The authors synthesize past disaster research that addresses issues of race and ethnicity in the U.S. The authors show that studies have important findings, many illustrating that racial and ethnic communities in the U.S. are more vulnerable to natural disasters, due to factors such as language, housing patterns, building construction, community isolation, and cultural insensitivities. By presenting these studies together, readers can witness the patterns of racial and ethnic inequalities that may be more difficult to see or interpret in individual studies that take place in one specific time and place.

Political and Economic Change Program

Edward S. Greenberg presented one of the three plenary addresses at the International Colloquium "In Search of the Good Society" held at the University of Haifa, Israel, on July 7-9. His address, "On the Problems and Prospects of Workplace Democracy," focused on the impact of economic globalization and rapid technological change on the ability of employees in the rich democracies to exercise power and influence in the workplace, the economy, and government. He also presented a paper on June 27 at the annual meeting of the Research Society on Alcoholism in Santa Barbara, California. Co-authored with Leon Grunberg and Sarah Moore of the University of Puget Sound, the paper demonstrates that among layoff survivors in a large firm, those who were closest to the layoffs (had received warnings that they were being considered for layoff or had been laid off in the past, then rehired) were most likely to report being in bad physical and mental health.

Political and Economic Change Program In Print

O'Loughlin, John and James E. Bell. 1999. "The Political Geography of Civic Engagement in Ukraine." Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, 40(4), pp. 233-266. The authors, two U.S. geographers, discuss the extent to which widespread dissatisfaction in Ukraine with economic and political transition in the 1990s is reflected in the level of non-governmental, mass-based political activity. A major focus is placed on detecting whether a correlation exists at the oblast level between the level of civic engagement (non-governmental organizational activity) and socioeconomic conditions and/or cultural-historical factors. The results of the analysis provide a basis for assessing the likelihood of future territorially based ethnic or nationalist unrest. The analysis is based on information from national public opinion surveys, official statistics, and other sources.

Problem Behavior Program

Elaine A. Blechman hosted a one-day conference, "Failure Analysis and Youth Violence" on July 12 at the University's Alumni Center. The conference was sponsored in part by Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. The conference was attended by a group of professionals interested in at-risk youth from the spheres of education, juvenile justice, mental health as well as professionals with experience in engineering failure analysis and governmental strategic planning. The overview of the conference, dedicated to the memories of the victims of the Columbine High School shootings, was 1) to import failure-analysis methodology from engineering into the behavioral sciences for after-disaster study of rare events such as school shootings and 2) to develop  a reasonable standard of care that minimizes social-system glitches, maximizes violence prevention, and promotes adolescent resilience.  There will be a second meeting in Washington, D.C. on September 15 to further this discussion and continue to develop a model for "prosocial schools and communities." A paper, "Prosocial Schools and Communities:  Reducing the Harm Caused by At-Risk Youths," (Blechman, E.A., Lorion, R., Cohen, W., Mabry, H.,  Neimeyer, C., and Helberg, C.) based on conference results is forthcoming.

Problem Behavior Program In Print

Costa, Frances M., Richard Jessor, and Mark S. Turbin. July 1999. "Transition into Adolescent Problem Drinking: The Role of Psychosocial Risk and Protective Factors." Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 60(4), pp. 480-490. This article establishes the role of psychosocial risk and protective factors in cross-sectional variation in adolescent problem drinking, and in the transition into problem drinking over time. The data were from a four-wave (1989-1992) longitudinal study of 1,591 adolescents in a large, urban school district. Both psychosocial risk factors (such as low expectations for success, peer models for substance use, and poor school performance) and psychosocial protective factors (such as intolerance of deviance, peer models for conventional behavior, and involvement in prosocial activities) account for significant cross-sectional variation in adolescents' involvement in problem drinking, as indicated by more frequent drunkenness and more significant variation in the timing of transition into problem drinking during adolescence. Protective factors play an independent role in accounting for adolescent involvement in problem drinking and in the transition into problem drinking in adolescence. Intervention efforts to enhance protection, especially for adolescents who are exposed to risk, should supplement efforts to reduce risk.

Center for the Study and Prevention of Violence

Delbert S. Elliott was a guest speaker at the National Criminal Justice Association annual membership meeting, July 20, in Pittsburgh. Elliott participated in a plenary panel discussion on "The Future of Prevention: What Can We Expect and What is Working?" Elliott participated in the Racial Disparity workshop of the National Research Council on June 29, in Washington, DC. The workshop was organized around four panels focusing on macro structural explanations, subcultural explanations, alternative trend patterns, and differential processing and establishing bias.

Tonya Aultman-Bettridge, Jane M. Grady, and Tiffany Shaw traveled to San Antonio, Texas for the National Network of Violence Prevention Practitioners Summit 1999, "Toward a National Voice: Maximizing Our Effectiveness," on July 7-9. Grady attended the advisory board meeting on July 6. Aultman-Bettridge conducted a two-part workshop on program evaluation. Shaw hosted a CSPV exhibit.

On July 15 Elliott, Grady, Aultman-Bettridge, and Shaw engaged in a planning meeting with several Colorado education professionals and community representatives, including the Colorado Association of School Boards, Colorado Association of School Executives, Colorado Education Association, Colorado Federation of Teachers, the Colorado Trust, and representatives from the Attorney General's and Governor's Offices. The meeting involved discussion and development of a statewide project to ensure safe schools within Colorado communities.

In Focus: Debbie Ash

Recipient of Chancellor's Employee of the Year Award

In this month's "In Focus" section we are stepping away from the usual in-depth feature of current research of a member of the Professional Staff at IBS and are highlighting Debbie Ash and her recent honor. Her strong management, administrative, and communication skills as part of the administrative staff make her a unique contribution to the smooth functioning of IBS. She was one of three employees presented the Chancellor's Employee of the Year Award at a reception held in their honor on April 12. Ash, who has worked at the University for the past 20 years and the last 14 at IBS, is Program Assistant to the Director, Richard Jessor. Below are quotes from the various letters sent to the Chancellor in support of her nomination.

[Pictured, left to right: Chancellor Richard Byyny, Debbie Ash, IBS Director Richard Jessor, Vice Chancellor Philip Distefano.]

"Debbie has distinguished herself as a most productive and conscientious employee and as a remarkably humane person since joining the IBS staff in 1985. Without her dedication and commitment, the Institute could not have made the progress it has over the past decade and a half. In her role as Program Assistant I, Debbie has served in a variety of capacities in support of my Directorship. These have ranged from managing the IBS Program Review process, to coordinating our lecture series on health behavior, on new perspectives on behavioral sciences and on the war in the Persian Gulf (the latter two eventuating in books, the publications of which she also managed), to serving as liaison to the Program Directors and their staff and faculty. Her absolute dependability, her competence and skill, and her unfailing good spirits have not only made her an indispensable co-worker, but those attributes have made her a role model for others in the Institute to emulate."

Richard Jessor, Director

"In her work, Ms. Ash has shown a consistent commitment to the Institute, its personnel, and its mission. As her immediate supervisor in the Institute's administrative office, I can happily attest to her dependability, efficiency, and skill. She has been eager to learn as much as she can about the various university systems, such as Payroll, Personnel, and Finance, as well as to stay up to date with office technology."

Mary Axe, General Professional IV

"She knows how the university works and how to get things done in an all-too-bureaucratic environment. She always does far more than is expected, going the extra mile to help people associated with the Institute achieve their goals. She is also kind and considerate, treating all who require her services in an even-handed, egalitarian and pleasant way."

Edward S. Greenberg, Director, Political and Economic Change Program and Professor of Political Science

"Debbie always exhibits great charm, grace under pressure, good humor, and incredible accuracy. She is meticulous, punctual, and eager to help out in times of office crises. Whenever I want to be very sure that something be carried out exactly according to detailed specifications, I seek Debbie's help."

Andrei Rogers, Director, Population Program and Professor of Geography

Congratulations, Debbie, from all of us at IBS!

Funding Opportunities

The National Science Foundation announces fellowship opportunities to facilitate the development of innovative methods and models for understanding complex social and behavioral science phenomena. A limited number of mid-career research fellowships are being offered in the social, behavioral, economic, and statistical sciences. Any qualified researcher may submit a proposal through normal institutional channels at home or host institutions. The deadline is September 1. Direct inquires to: Cheryl L. Eavey, Program Director, Methodology, Measurement, and Statistics, 4201 Wilson Blvd., Room 995, Arlington, VA 22230; 703-306-1729; Fax: 703-306-0485; Email: ceavey@nsf.gov. For more information see flyer on IBS #1 bulletin board or their website: http://www.nsf.gov.

Research Proposals Funded

Environment and Behavior Program

J. Terrence McCabe
Collaborative research: demographic & cultural studies of pastoral intensification in Tanzania
NSF, 07/15/99 - 06/30/00, new, $81,438

Problem Behavior Program

Frank W. Dunford
Determine the equivalency of two experimental samples
Navy, 01/15/99 - 01/14/00, new, $16,124 David H. Huizinga

The effect of juvenile justice system processing on subsequent delinquent and criminal behavior: a cross national comparison
NIJ, 05/01/99 - 04/30/01, new, $174,121 Fred C. Pampel
Preventing youth handgun violence in Colorado
Colorado Trust, 07/01/99 - 06/30/99, new, $350,00

Population Processes Program

Jane Menken
Healthy aging in rural populations
Rand Corp, 08/01/97 - 07/31/00, cont., $65,924

Research Proposals Submitted

Population Processes Program

Robert McNown
Multiple time series analysis of fertility
NIH, 05/01/00 - 04/30/02, new, $142,434

Fred C. Pampel and Jane Menken
Female work, public policy, and fertility in developed nations
NSF, 05/01/00 - 10/31/01, new, $76,676

Problem Behavior Program

Richard Jessor
Healthy futures: a longitudinal study of adolescent health
UCHSC, 09/30/99 - 09/29/03, new, $934,452

Kirk Williams
Colorado domestic violence risk reduction
CO Judicial, 03/01/99 - 5/31/99, supp., $21,549

Richard Jessor and Frances Costa
Alcohol and tobacco use in college: a developmental study
NIH, 04/01/00 - 03/31/05, new, $2,146,909

Scott Menard and Delbert S. Elliott
Violence prevention: replication, evaluation, and dissemination of information
DoJ, 10/01/99 - 09/30/04, new, $351,571

Fred C. Pampel and Kirk Williams
Colorado domestic violence risk reduction
Colorado Justice Dept, 06/01/99 - 01/31/00, renew, $72,945

Environment and Behavior Program

Dennis S. Mileti
A clearinghouse on natural hazards research and applications
NSF, 09/01/99 - 09/30/00, cont, $542,850

Upcoming Colloquia

There is an online listing of upcoming and recent colloquia.

Institute of Behavioral Science

Richard Jessor, Institute Director

IBS Newsletter

Sugandha Brooks, Newsletter Editor
Richard L. Cook, Web site coordinator

Institute of Behavioral Science
University of Colorado at Boulder
Boulder, CO 80309-0483

(303) 492-8147