IBS Newsletter

September 1997

Institute of Behavioral Science
University of Colorado

Institute News

Delbert Elliott has been appointed Director of the IBS Research Program on Problem Behavior by Associate Vice Chancellor for Research, Carol Lynch. The appointment was made on recommendation of the IBS Director and approval of the IBS Board.

Richard Jessor will serve as Acting Director of the Environment and Behavior Program, replacing Chuck Howe whose term will end at the end of his 1997-98 sabbatical year.


Randall Partin presented a paper to the American Political Science Association (APSA) Annual Meeting in 1996 that won the best paper award from the State Politics and Policy section of the APSA. The paper, entitled "Campaign Intensity and Voter Information: A Look at Gubernatorial Contests" is based on his dissertation research that he recently completed at University of Colorado. Randall was a Graduate Research Assistant at the Program on Political and Economic Change and is currently Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of New Mexico.

Program Activities

Population Program

Richard G. Rogers attended the American Sociological Association meetings in Toronto from August 11-13 where he presented the Otis Dudley Duncan book award for best book in Social Demography. The winner of this year's award was Teen Mothers and the Revolving Welfare Door by Kathleen Mullan Harris. Rogers also presented "Health Insurance Coverage and Mortality" with Robert Hummer, University of Texas. The third co-author of the paper was Charles B. Nam. The authors contend that a more complete understanding of the relationship between socioeconomic status and mortality can only be arrived at with improvements in the conceptualization and measurement of both socioeconomic status and adult mortality, including such measures as health insurance. Private health insurance coverage is linked to mortality and to other socioeconomic factors. Compared to those who are well-insured, those who are un- or under-insured are often less educated and poorer. Limited studies have also demonstrated that, net of other social and demographic factors, uninsured have higher mortality risks because they get less timely, less consistent, and poorer health care. The authors find that compared to young adults with health insurance, those without health insurance are 50% more likely to die. This figure is more disturbing when the magnitude of uninsured individuals is considered: almost 31 million individuals aged 18 to 64 in 1986 lacked private health insurance in the U.S. and are thus 50% more likely to die.

There are no significant differences in mortality between those who have private insurance and those who are not privately insured for ages 65 and above. The differences by age suggest that we, as a nation, should provide similar social support programs for the young as are provided for the old. The U.S. should reconsider a national health insurance, which would cover all ages, rather than specific age groups. Moreover, future mortality research should be aware that socioeconomic factors include a variety of socioeconomic indices in addition to education and income; health insurance is another important factor.

Fred Pampel will be spending much of his sabbatical this fall as a visiting scholar at the London School of Economics in the Department of Policy Administration.

Population Program in Print

Richard G. Rogers, Jacqueline A. Carrigan, and Mary Grace Kovar. 1997. "Comparing Mortality Estimates Based on Different Administrative Records." Population Research and Policy Review, 16, pp. 213-224. This study investigates how age and race are reported in interviews and on death certificates and how these demographic assignments affect life expectancy estimates for the total population, for males and females, and for blacks and whites. Differential reporting of demographic characteristics can produce different estimated life expectancies and thus differential assessments of the sex and race gaps in life expectancy. This difference underscores the need to define demographic characteristics carefully and to examine multivariate models and projections cautiously.

Richard G. Rogers, S. Jay Olshansky, Bruce Carnes, and Len Smith. 1997. "Infectious Diseases--New and Ancient Threats to World Health." Population Bulletin, 52(2), pp. 1-52. This Population Bulletin examines the phenomenon of "new" and reemerging infectious and parasitic diseases from an international perspective. The authors discuss the factors that have influenced the re-emergence of these diseases, including urbanization, migration and travel, and agricultural practices that have increased exposure to disease once confined to other animals and small geographic areas. They also review the changes in medical practice and treatment that have helped breed bacterial strains resistant to standard drug treatment.

Environment and Behavior Program

James R. McGoodwin returned last summer from a year in Newfoundland, Canada. He will be giving a colloquium concerning his research on the fisheries crisis there later this fall (time and date to be announced). He also returned to Japan in late August, where he was invited to share his expertise concerning coastal fishing peoples with members of the scientific staff at the Institute for Cetacean Research in Tokyo. In early September, he will be a participant at a conference entitled, "Harvesters in the North Atlantic Fisheries," in St. John's, Newfoundland, September 8-9. The conference is part of Canada's Summit of the Sea, consisting of a number of affiliated conferences celebrating the 500th anniversary of John Cabot's historic voyage. McGoodwin has been invited to give the concluding address at the Harvester's conference.

John D. Wiener, visiting research associate, organized and participated in a panel on social creation of vulnerability to natural hazards at the Natural Hazards Research Center's Annual Workshop. He also contributed to a forthcoming volume on Spiritual and Cultural Values of Biodiversity for the United Nations Environment Program with work that applies common property and microeconomic theory to his previous case study of cultural aspects of land tenure for Alaska Natives.

Charles W. Howe participated in the joint conference of the Universities' Council on Water Resources and the American Water Resources Association at Keystone, Colorado, June 29-July 3. He is a member of the Board of Directors of the former organization. He chaired the session on "Estimation of Non-Point Source Pollution" and was co-author of two papers, "A Conceptual Taxonomy for 'Un-like' Watershed-based Trades to Achieve Water Quality Objectives" presented by Lee Rozaklis of Hydrosphere, Inc. and "Technical Issues Associated with 'Un-like' Pollutant Trading in Watershed" presented by Ann Maest of Hydrosphere, Inc.

Howe will be on sabbatical this fall semester at the University of York, United Kingdom and spring semester at the Université de Montpellier, France. At York University he will work with Charles Perrings, Edward Barbier, Jack Pezzy, and others on issues of sustainability. In the spring, he will work with Jean-Marie Boisson and Jean-Michel Salles (a visitor at E&B two years ago) on the organization of the French water industry. His email remains unchanged and will be accessed daily from Europe.

Chris Guzelian, an undergraduate economics major, has been working this summer with Chuck Howe and Ken Strzepek under a Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship to write a new book on the integration of economics and civil engineering for the design and management of water systems. Guzelian was charged with the development of a large set of problems and case studies.

In Print

John D. Wiener. 1996. "Research Opportunities in Aid of Federal Flood Policy," Policy Sciences, 29(4), pp. 321-344. This article describes a range of policy difficulties and research opportunities from geography and economics based on work originally done for the Scientific Assessment and Strategy Team for the Federal Interagency Floodplain Management Review. The author links benefit-cost analysis practices to the geographic problem of continued invasion of flood plains and reviews issues in agricultural and navigation policy, among others.

Hazards Center News

The Natural Hazards Center hosted the 22nd Hazards Research and Applications Workshop on July 13-16 in Denver. This year's annual event drew the largest interdisciplinary gathering ever, with 326 researchers and practitioners. In addition to people from every corner of the U.S., two dozen participants represented the nations of China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, England, Canada, and the Netherlands. Highlights of the workshop included a keynote address by Grand Forks, North Dakota, City Council member, Elliott Glassheim; plenary sessions on putting research into practice and on the second assessment; three sessions featuring 13 young scholars who are participating in the National Science Foundation sponsored "Enabling the Next Generation of Hazards Researchers" project (including two economists, Nick Flores and David Frame, from CU); and scores of concurrent sessions ranging on topics from equity issues in disaster response and recovery to the use of remote sensing for hazards management. Following the workshop, the Center facilitated the organization of an "Add-On Disaster Research" meeting on July 16-17. About 50 people stayed to attend this extra meeting at which Gilbert White presented the keynote speech.

Following the workshop, the Natural Hazards Center hosted Bob Paterson, a member of the faculty of the School of Architecture and Planning at the University of Texas at Austin. Paterson, a land use planning scholar, is conducting research on the relation of land use to hazard mitigation. His two week stay in Boulder was funded by the Big XII faculty fellowship grant program that enables faculty from Big XII schools to visit other Big XII schools for cooperative research efforts.

Mary Fran Myers was one of 40 people from around the country invited to participate in a symposium on "The Impact of Information Technology upon Disaster Mitigation and Management" sponsored by the University of Pittsburgh on June 6-7. In the course of the working meeting, she presented the "Organizational Evaluation of Three Demonstrated Information Technology Prototypes." On June 16-17, Myers was the only non-Corps of Engineers representative invited to participate in a meeting to discuss research opportunities on the social and institutional aspects of flood emergency planning that have emerged from the Red River valley flooding earlier this spring. The meeting was sponsored by the Corps' Institute of Water Resources in Fort Belvoir, Virginia. On June 19-20, Myers represented the Natural Hazards Center at the Insurance Institute for Property Loss Reduction's Annual Congress held in Irvine, California. Myers also served as a member of a National Science Foundation panel to review proposals submitted in response to a request for proposals to establish an Institute for Civil Infrastructure Systems. The successful proposal will receive $1 million per year for five years. The review panel met on August 28-29 at the National Science Foundation headquarters in Arlington, Virginia.

Former Research Assistant Pamela Showalter is leaving the University of Toledo to accept a position in the Department of Geography and Planning at Southwest Texas State University in San Marcos, Texas this fall. She received her Ph.D. in Geography at the University of Colorado as Bill Riebsame's student and worked here at the Center for four years.

Gilbert F. White, with the assistance of Beth Hardy and Noah Molotch, has put on the Web a draft version of the Boulder Creek Flood Notebook at www.colorado.edu/hazards/bcfn. It is now being reviewed by invited experts from the city, county, and university. White spent June 24-25 in Toronto at a meeting of a new committee of the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment and the United Nations Environment Program which is charged with preparing, after questioning an array of scientists, a review of what appear to be emerging global environmental problems.

In Print

White, Gilbert F. 1997. "The river as a system: A geographer's view of promising approaches," Water International, 22(2), pp. 79-81. A review of stages in the engineering approach and of increasing interests in approaches that emphasize landscape, the range of public choice, and diverse values and communities.

White, Gilbert F. 1997. "Author's Response," Progress in Human Geography, 21(2), pp. 248-50. Observations on commentaries by Rutherford Platt and Tim O'Riordan on Human Adjustment to Floods, a dissertation published in 1942 and reviewed under "Classics in human geography revisited," pp. 243-48.

Political and Economic Change Program

Keith Maskus is spending the fall term on sabbatical leave as Visiting Professor of Economics at the University of Adelaide in Australia. While in Australia, he will be presenting papers at several universities. Maskus attended the following three conferences: MidWest International Economics Association meetings at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois on June 3-5 where he presented the paper entitled, "Intellectual Property Rights, Licensing, and Economic Growth," (with Guifang Yang) and "Is Small Beautiful? Prospects for Trade Diversion in an Egypt-EU Preferential Trading Arrangement," (with Denise Konan); Conference on Public-Private Initiatives to Improve Intellectual Property Rights in Evolving Economies (organized by the government of China and Duke University Law School), in Brussels, Belgium on July 10-13 where he presented the paper, "The Role of Intellectual Property Rights in Encouraging Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Transfer in Developing Countries;" Energy Modeling Forum in Oslo, Norway, on August 12-15 where he presented the paper, "Carbon Taxes and the Global Trading System," (with Mustafa Babiker and Thomas F. Rutherford).

In Print

Maskus, Keith E. and Denise Konan. 1997. "A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Egyptian Trade Liberalization Scenarios." Pages 156-177 in A. Galal and B. Hoekman, (eds.), Regional Partners in Global Markets: Limits and Possibilities of the Euro-Med Agreements. London:Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Maskus, Keith E. and Denise Konan. 1997. "Trade Liberalization in Egypt." Review of Development Economics, 1(3), pp. 465-483.


The Effects of Fertility Change in South Asia

Jane Menken was a visitor to the IBS Population Program in 1992-93 and has returned to Colorado this year as Professor in the Department of Sociology and Faculty Associate in the Population Program. She previously was UPS Foundation Professor in the Social Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, where she was Director of the Population Studies Center for a six-year term. She has been elected to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the Institute of Medicine, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

My research has long focused on mathematical demography, particularly models of the reproductive process in humans and on measurement of the factors that determine the level of fertility in different populations. More recently, it has emphasized population change in South Asia, where fertility has fallen rapidly in Bangladesh, the location of most of my research. Despite its poverty, the rural nature of its population, and low education, but in the presence of a strong family planning program, fertility has dropped from an average of over six children per woman who survived to age 50 (a number usually known as the Total Fertility Rate) in the mid-1970s to about 3.3 in recent years. My current research is attempting to understand the effects of fertility change on the lives of parents and children (for example, does reduced fertility lead to higher schooling for children?), and especially, on the health and family support networks of people as they age in a society where children traditionally are responsible for the care of their elderly parents. I and my colleagues at Harvard, Penn, and Brown Universities, RAND, and the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, have just completed data collection in a large survey, the Matlab Health and Socioeconomic Survey, that is intended to provide information to address these issues. (The data will be available for public use some time next year.) The project team is now entering the analysis phase of their research.

I am a member of the National Institute for Health's (NIH) Director Advisory Committee and have participated in activities of the Commission on the Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education of the National Research Council (the operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering). I have recently completed a six-year term as a member of the Commission and will become chair of its Committee on Population in January, 1998. I was a long-time member of its Committee on AIDS Research and the Behavioral, Social, and Statistical Sciences. The latter committee produced several important early studies of AIDS in the U.S. I was also the President of the Population Association of America (1985) and President of the Sociological Research Association (1996) and now serve on the Council of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.

My interests in teaching and in enhancing opportunities for students led to efforts at Penn to create new programs that enable students to become involved in research in less-developed countries, offer minority students opportunities to begin population studies as advanced undergraduates, in hope of attracting them to graduate school in related areas, and encourage and support collaboration between researchers in developing countries and the U.S. The first two of these programs have been funded by the Mellon Foundation and the third by a grant from the Fogarty Center at NIH. I am hoping to undertake similar initiatives here at the University of Colorado.

Funding Opportunities

The American Council of Learned Societies: The ACLS Fellowship Program welcomes applications from scholars in all disciplines of the humanities and social sciences. Maximum award is $20,000 and deadline is September 30, 1997. See bulletin board at IBS #1 or contact directly: Ruth Waters, Office of Fellowships and Grants, ACLS, 228 East 45th Street, New York, NY 10017-3398, Phone: 212-697-1505, email: grants@acls.org, webpage: http://www.acls.org

The Society for the Psychological Study of Social Issues (SPSSI) has numerous awards available. Among them are the Gordon Allport Intergroup Relations Prize and the Otto Klineberg Intercultural and International Relations Award. In addition, they are offering the Applied Social Issues Internship Program and the Grants-in-Aid Program. Also, they are asking for applications for their Scientist in the Public Interest position. See the bulletin board in IBS #1 for details or contact directly at SPSSI Central Office, Post Office Box 1248, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248, email: spssi@umich.edu, Webpage: http://www.umich.edu/-sociss/

East-West Center Scholarships & Fellowships: Graduate Degree Fellowships are available to those interested in pursuing graduate degree study at the University of Hawaii. More information available at the IBS #1 bulletin board.

Graduate School Faculty Research Grants: 1997-98 Application Deadlines for the Council on Research and Creative Work and the Graduate Committee on the Arts and Humanities are posted on the bulletin board of IBS #1. For further information and forms you may contact Pat Peterson in the Graduate School at Campus Box 26, extension 2-1069, or email: petersop@spot.

Research Proposals Funded

Problem Behavior Program

Lynae A. Darbes and Megan A. Lewis
Influence on HIV risk behavior in gay male couples
NIH 07/01/97 - 04/30/98 $20,858 new

Kirk R. Williams and Fred C. Pampel
Colorado domestic violence risk reduction
State of Colorado 05/01/97 - 08/31/98 $190,610 new

David H. Huizinga and Delbert S. Elliott
Developmental processes in violence and problem behavior
Delbert S. Elliott NIDA 06/01/97 - 05/31/98 $506,526 continuation

Delbert S. Elliott
Comprehensive evaluation plan: amendment two longitudinal evaluation proposal
State of Colorado 07/01/97 - 06/30/98 $70,000 renewal

David H. Huizinga
Developmental processes in violence and problem behavior
NIDA 09/30/96 - 05/31/98 $28,029 continuation

Environment and Behavior Program

Dennis S. Mileti
Assessment of research and applications on natural hazards
NSF 06/01/97 - 05/31/98 $28,560 supplemental

Dennis S. Mileti
A clearinghouse on natural hazards research and applications
NSF 06/01/97 - 11/30/97 $47,670 supplemental

Population Program

Andrei Rogers
Third Colorado conference on elderly migration
NIH 08/15/97 - 07/31/98 $19,900 new

Fred C. Pampel
Policy regimes, gender, and age differences in violent mortality
NSF 05/01/98 - 04/30/99 $40,981 new

Political and Economic Change Program

Michael D. Ward, John V. O'Loughlin, Lynn A. Staeheli, and Edward S. Greenberg Globalization and democracy
NSF 09/01/95 - 08/31/98 $112,500 renewal

James R. Scarritt
Sustaining transitions to democracy and potential for democratic consolidation in sub-Saharan Africa
NSF 01/01/98 - 12/31/99 $195,866 new

Research Proposals Submitted

Environment and Behavior Program

Anthony J. Bebbington
Sustainable agriculture in Bolivia
IIED 06/16/97 - 06/01/98 $8,916 new

J. Terrence McCabe and Robert K. Davis
The contribution of anthropology and economics to an integrated modeling and assessment system for conserving biodiversity in spatially extensive pastoral ecosystems in east Africa
CSU 10/15/97 - 10/14/03 $59,463 new

Charles W. Howe, A. Pulwarty and John D. Wiener
An assessment of the potential for improved water management by increased use
NOAA 07/01/98 - 06/30/00 $360,481 new

Upcoming Colloquia

There is an online listing of upcoming and recent colloquia.

September 1997 IBS Newsletter

Sugandha Brooks and Christine Weeber, Newsletter Editors

Institute of Behavioral Science

Richard Jessor, Director

Institute of Behavioral Science
University of Colorado at Boulder
Boulder, CO 80309-0483

(303) 492-8147