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A place to start is with this     Overview and Prediction of a Wave of Defaults

Table of Contents Introduction -- the Latest K-Wave Methodological Considerations Interest vs Corporate Profits Debt Discussion and Links Some Longwave Graphs Decline in Washington Leadership A Weakened IMF Nikkei -- BoJ Roadkill Japan's Liquidity Trap Concept of Neutral Policy 1998-99 British Monetary Policy Latin America's Largest Privatization Response to Overindebtedness Beginning of the Current Downwave Criticism of the IMF Small Currency Areas Invite Destabilizing Capital Movements   Case of Argentina US Price History The Peculiarity of Money   Deflation Fails to Choke Off Excess Demand for Money US Deflation in the Late Nineteenth Century Roosevelt and the 1933 Devaluation Gold, Debt and the Great Depression Can Disinflation be Non-neutral? or The Natural Rate of Bankruptcy

Moodys       The Long Waves in Economic Life by Nicholas Kondratiev.   This seminal work was first published in German in 1926. W.F. Stolper translated it for publication in English for the Review of Economics and Statistics (Nov 1935). Kondratiev had been imprisoned by Stalin five years before the English publication appeared. The paper is reprinted in Business Fluctuations, Growth, and Economic Stabilization, eds., John J. Clark and Morris Cohen, (Random House, 1963). Stylization of Kondratiev's Three Long Waves Selected References   Mike Alexander Longwave and Social Cycles Resource Centre (twenty papers 3/99) E-Commerce Contributes to Deflation by Eliminating the "Middle Man"  Ned Davis Schumpeter, Joseph A. Business cycles: a theoretical, historical and statistical analysis of the capitalist process McGraw-Hill, NY, 1939. More than any other publication, this work put Kondratiev on the intellectual map in the English speaking world. It also contributed to the real interpretation of Kondratiev longwaves. Joshua Goldstein, Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age, New Haven: Yale University Press, 1988. Perhaps the most widely read recent work on Kondratiev waves. Written by a political scientist with extensive references in political science and sociology. Further Longwave References "Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the situation is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes the by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done." ... J.M. Keynes

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