Long-run debt and budget projections

I've just posted updated graphs and tables summarizing the long-run
budget projections from the 2004 Budget.  They are located at:

http://home.netcom.com/~rdavis2/probud.html

The data shows that the long-term budget outlook has deteriorated
greatly over the past year.  Among the points indicated by the
projections are the following:

1) If discretionary spending keeps pace with the growth in GDP, the
   public debt is projected to stay at about 35% of GDP until 2020.
   It is then projected to rise sharply, reaching about 98% of GDP by
   2040 and 466% of GDP by 2080.  This is a large increase from the
   previous two budgets.  The 2002 and 2003 Budgets projected that,
   by 2075, the public debt would reach 108% and 165% of GDP,
   respectively.  The current budget, on the other hand, projects
   that the public debt will reach about 400% by 2075.

2) Under the above assumption, net interest is projected to reach
   about 124% of revenues in 2080.

3) Regardless how quickly discretionary spending grows, mandatory
   spending is projected to take up 118% of revenues by 2080.  The
   top three mandatory programs, Social Security, Medicare, and
   Medicaid, are projected to take up about 111% of revenues by 2080.

The graphs shows how the debt and net interest start increasing
exponentially as the other expenses increase more or less linearly.
The second graph shows that the source of the increase is mandatory
spending.  With it projected to take up all revenues by about 2060,
all discretionary spending (including defense) and interest payments
will have to be paid for with deficit spending.  Hence, while it is
important to keep discretionary spending in check, mandatory spending
appears to be the bigger problem.