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Participation of Colorado High School Graduates in Higher Education
With comparisons to other states

Lou McClelland, Planning, Budget, and Analysis, University of Colorado at Boulder
February 2000

The January 2000 publication of "Colorado Higher Education 2000" by the Colorado Commission on Higher Education (CCHE) has sparked interest in the participation rate of Colorado high school graduates in higher education.

No state system of higher education would aim for 100% participation. Accordingly, comparing Colorado to other states is an appropriate way of addressing this issue.

Several measures of participation are available, and each tells a somewhat different story. If participation is limited to students enrolling as new freshmen within 12 months of high school graduation, Colorado’s rate is below the US median by 2 percentage points. This is the finding cited by CCHE (measure A in this document).

If participation instead encompasses all students from the state enrolling as new freshmen, regardless of length of time since high school graduation, Colorado’s rate exceeds the national median (measure E).

Furthermore, if the issue is not enrollment anywhere, but enrollment in a public institution in the student’s home state, Colorado fares even better compared to other states. Colorado’s 64% exceeds the national median by 10 percentage points and ranks 12^th in the nation (measure F). This indeed tells a completely different story than the measure cited by CCHE. Of course, no single measure can tell the full story.

These and other measures are presented and discussed in this document in the interest of prompting and informing a larger discussion of this important issue, and of establishing a model for analysis of 1998 data, which IPEDS should release in the next few months.

Sections

• Summary of measures and results
• Comments on each measure and the results
• Distribution of each measure over all states
• Definitions and sources
• Link to the data

Summary of measures and results (ranks are of 49 states)

Comments on the measures and results

A Pct of state HS grads entering college anywhere w/i 12 mo of HS graduation

• This is the classic measure of participation. Only students enrolling within 12 months of HS graduation are counted. Students may be enrolled in any state as degree-seeking new freshmen OR as new non-degree students.
• At 53%, Colorado is below the US median by 2 percentage points and ranks 36^th.
• Tom Mortenson lists the value of measure A for Colorado as 52.7% (display, page 5). This is the figure Tim Foster of CCHE has been citing (rounded down to 52%). The Mortenson figure incorporates an adjustment for graduates of private high schools who are not included in IPEDS high school graduate counts. The same adjustment has been made here. More details are in "definitions and sources."
• For Colorado Mortenson estimated private high school graduates at 6% of total. The national median is 9%. Eight states in the northeast, plus Hawaii and Louisiana, exceed 15%.

B Pct of state HS grads entering a same-state public w/i 12 mo of HS graduation

• This is another legitimate measure of a state system’s success – the percentage of HS graduates from the state who enroll in a state public institution within 12 months of graduation.
• Here Colorado trails the US median by only 1 percentage points and ranks 31^st.

C Pct of new frosh from state entering same-state publics who are w/i 12 mo of HS graduation

• This is simply a descriptive measure – of all new freshmen from a state enrolled in a home state public, what percent graduated within the prior 12 months. It’s a measure of speed of entry into higher ed; however, speed is not necessarily a goal of a state system. In fact, a low standing on this measure could be regarded as a sign of success in attracting students beyond high school graduation to higher education.
• Here Colorado is well below the US median, 57% to 68%, ranking 44^th of 49 states.
• Reasons for this difference are beyond the scope of this analysis.
• The difference between Colorado and the US median on this measure was commented on by CCHE in the overview to its Higher Education 2000 publication.
• This difference has major implications for the interpretability of measure A, the classic participation measure, because measure A includes only students enrolling in higher ed within 12 months of graduation. The lower the proportion of a state’s HS graduates who go immediately to higher ed -- vs. even one year later – the lower the apparent participation rate will be for that state.
• For alternative measures without this problem (but with other problems!) see measures E and F.

D Pct of all new frosh from state who are w/i 12 mo of HS graduation

• This measure is similar to C but describes all freshmen from the state, not just those enrolling in a home state public.
• Accordingly, Colorado trails the US median by the same 11 percentage points as on measure C, ranking 45^th. Only Arizona, Minnesota, Nevada, and Oklahoma are lower on this measure.

E Pct of state HS grads entering college anywhere

• This measure counts all students from a state enrolled as freshmen, regardless of length of time from HS graduation.
• The validity of this measure is based on assumptions that
• some portion of HS graduates not enrolling within 12 months of graduation will do so one or more years later
• the number delaying enrollment can be estimated by the number of new freshmen more than 12 months past HS graduation
• most new freshmen from a state did graduate from high schools in that state
• the number of HS graduates in a state is more or less the same over several years
• These are obviously assumptions that will not always hold true. In fact, this measure can exceed 100%, and does for one state (Iowa).
• The critical finding is not the absolute value of measure E for Colorado (86%) but the fact that this value exceeds the national median by 7 percentage points, placing Colorado 15^th in the nation.

F Pct of state HS grads entering a same-state public

• This measure is similar to E but is limited to students from the state enrolling in a home-state public. If a goal of a state system is serving students at home, this is a measure of success.
• Here Colorado’s 64% exceeds the national median by 10 percentage points and ranks 12^th in the nation. This tells a completely different story than measure A!

G Pct of recent state HS grads entering college anywhere who are at a same-state public

• Of HS graduates from a state who enroll anywhere within 12 months of HS graduation, what percent select a public institution in the home state? This is a measure of success within the recent HS graduate population.
• Here Colorado matches the national median at 68%, ranking 25^th.

H Pct of all new frosh from state at a same-state public

• Of all new freshmen from a state, what percent select a public institution in the home state?
• Colorado’s 74% exceeds the national median by 3 percentage points and ranks 17^th in the nation.

Distribution of each measure over all states

In each plot, the vertical axis shows midpoints of the measure listed for groups of states. The horizontal axis shows number of states. ** = Colorado, && = US median, -- = all other states

Example: on measure A, Colorado (**) and 13 other states have values between 48% and 54%, with 51% the midpoint value for this group (red line). Sixteen states and the US median (&&) fall between 54% and 60%, with midpoint 57% (green line).

A Pct of state HS grads entering college anywhere w/i 12 mo of HS graduation

39%   |----
45%   |--------
51%   |**--------------------------    
57%   |&&--------------------------------
63%   |----------------
69%   |----------
      |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20

B Pct of state HS grads entering a same-state public w/i 12 mo of HS graduation
18%   |----
24%   |--------
30%   |----------------
36%   |&&**----------------------------------
42%   |------------------------
48%   |----
54%   |------
      |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20

C Pct of new frosh from state entering same-state publics who are w/i 12 mo of HS graduation
45%   |--
51%   |--
57%   |**----------
63%   |----------------
69%   |&&--------------------------------------
75%   |----------------------
81%   |------
      |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20

D Pct of all new frosh from state who are w/i 12 mo of HS graduation  
50%   |--
55%   |--
60%   |**----
65%   |--------------
70%   |&&----------------------------
75%   |------------------------------------
80%   |----------
      |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20

E Pct of state HS grads entering college anywhere  
 56%   |--
 64%   |----------
 72%   |--------------------------
 80%   |&&----------------------
 88%   |**--------------------
 96%   |--------------
104%   |--
       |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20

F Pct of state HS grads entering a same-state public  
25%   |----
35%   |--------
45%   |------------------------
55%   |&&------------------------------
65%   |**------------------
75%   |------
85%   |------
      |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20

G Pct of recent state HS grads entering college anywhere who are at a same-state public 
36%   |----
44%   |----------
52%   |----------
60%   |--------------
68%   |&&**----------------------------
76%   |----------------
84%   |--------------
      |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20

H Pct of all new frosh from state at a same-state public  
40%   |----
48%   |----------
56%   |--------
64%   |--------------
72%   |&&**------------------------------------
80%   |------------------
88%   |------
      |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20

Definitions and sources

• Sources
  • IPEDS fall 1996 migration survey (Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, of the National Center for Education Statistics of the US Department of Education): http://www.nces.ed.gov/ipeds/ef9697 – for counts of recent and total first-time freshmen by student state by institution state and for classification of institutions.
  • NCES compilation of public HS graduates by state: http://nces.ed.gov/pubs98/98202.pdf, page 5
  • "Chance for College by Age 19 by State in 1996" by Tom Mortenson in Postsecondary Education Opportunity, March 1998: chart 5.

Participation rate                   # recent frosh from IPEDS (w)
published in PostSecondary =     -----------------------------------------
Education opportunity (z)       # estimated private  +  # public HS grads 
                                    HS grads (x)        from IPEDS (y)
where w, y, and z are known.

• Code reference: l:/ir/emgt/adm/migrate/partic*, LMcC, PBA - 12FEB00

• New freshman. A student enrolling in an institution as an undergraduate for the first time, who has no prior postsecondary work (except that earned while in high school) that is being applied to requirements at the new institution. Essentially all new undergraduates (degree-seeking and not) except transfers.
  • Counted in fall only but is supposed to include students entering in summer as well.
  • Not the same as "freshman class standing." A "new freshman" may have sophomore or junior standing due to Advanced Placement credit or college courses taken during high school.
  • Includes all new non-degree students without bachelors degrees.
• Public. Not private, not proprietary. US service academies are also excluded from "public" in this analysis in order to focus on state systems.
• Home public. A public institution in the student’s home state.
• Within 12 months of HS graduation: As determined by the reporting institution.
• Student home state: As determined by the reporting institution. Only 1.3% of all new freshmen were reported with state unknown. In some cases the student’s home state may not be state of HS graduation. Only 49 states are included in this analysis.
  • Washington DC and Puerto Rico and other outlying areas are excluded because their patterns differ wildly from those of other states.
  • Students with home state Washington are excluded because of suspect data for 2-year institutions in that state. These figures made patterns for Washington completely different than those for other states.
• Institution home state. Institutions outside the 50 states and DC were excluded (none listed any Colorado students). Institutions in Washington DC and the state of Washington are included.
• HS graduates. Public-school graduates as reported by states to NCES, plus private school graduates estimated by Mortenson’s method (see sources). Mortenson states that his estimates "were prepared based on previously published NCES and Census Bureau data on private high school graduates."
• Institutions included: All reporting any new freshmen to IPEDS. Includes 4 year, 2 year, and some under-2-year. Includes public, private, and proprietary.
• All measures are based on these values for each state. All are for students from that state.
  • FROSHALL New frosh – all, fall 1996
  • FROSHREC New frosh w/i 12 mo of HS graduation
  • HPUBALL All from state in a home-state public
  • HPUBREC Recent HS grads in home-state publics
  • HSGRADS HS grads, 1996
• Calculation of the measures
• msA = froshrec/hsgrads: A % of HS grads in college w/i 12 mo
• msB = hpubrec/hsgrads : B % of HSgrds at home public w/i 12 mo
• msC = hpubrec/hpuball : C % in home publics who are w/i 12 mo
• msd = froshrec/froshall: D % of new frosh who are w/i 12 mo
• msE = froshall/hsgrads : E % of state HS grads in college
• msF = hpuball/hsgrads : F % of state HS grads at a home public
• msG = hpubrec/froshrec : G % of w/i 12 mo of HS at home public
• msH = hpuball/froshall : H % all new frosh at a home public

Link to the data – Link to an Excel workbook with 4 datasets and field definitions . Has no results. Includes data by student state, by institution state, and by individual Colorado institution. Useful for additional analyses.

PBA:LMcC -- l:\ir\emgt\adm\migrate\partic*.*. Last updated 02/23/00.

Last revision 06/04/04