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Participation of Colorado High School Graduates in Higher Education
With comparisons to other states

Lou McClelland and Dave Deffenbacher, Planning, Budget, and Analysis
University of Colorado at Boulder
October 2003

The Colorado Commission on Higher Education (CCHE) and others often use the participation rate of Colorado high school graduates in higher education as an indicator of success for Colorado's education system. The January 2000 publication of "Colorado Higher Education 2000" by CCHE initially sparked interest. More recently, the final report of the Governor's Blue Ribbon Panel on Higher Education outlined a "paradox" of high educational attainment but low participation rates within Colorado's population.

Several measures of participation in higher education are available, and each tells a somewhat different story. Data are from the IPEDS fall 2000 migration survey (the most recent available), coupled with NCES compilations of high school graduates by state.  Details are in the "definitions and sources" section. 

This is an update and extension of a previous report (http://www.colorado.edu/pba/policy/partic96.htm), using 1996 data on high school grads and new freshmen.

If participation is limited to students enrolling as new freshmen within 12 months of high school graduation, Colorado’s rate is below the US median by 6 percentage points. This and similar measures are cited by CCHE and the Blue Ribbon Panel.  This is labeled measure A in this document.

If participation instead encompasses all students from the state enrolling as new freshmen, regardless of length of time since high school graduation, Colorado’s rate exceeds the national median by 14 percentage points and ranks 6^th in the nation (measure E). If the issue is not enrollment anywhere, but enrollment in a public institution in the student’s home state, Colorado also performs well. Colorado exceeds the national median on this measure and ranks 11^th of all states (measure F).

These two measures tell a completely different story than the classic measure of participation, which uses only students going immediately to college. Of course, no single measure can tell the full story.

In addition, several characteristics of institutions further complicate the picture. Considering two and four year institutions separately can yield dramatically different results. For example, while recent Colorado high school graduates go on to four year institutions at relatively high rates, participation in two year institutions is low compared to other states.

These and other measures are presented and discussed in this document in the interest of prompting and informing a larger discussion of this important issue.

Sections

• Summary of measures and results
• Comments on each measure and the results
• Distribution of each measure over all states
• Considering institution level (two versus four year)
• Visualizing the data
• Impact of possible differences in reporting practices
• Definitions and sources
• Link to the data

Summary of measures and results (ranks are of 50 states)

Comments on the measures and results

A--Pct of state HS grads entering college anywhere w/i 12 mo of HS graduation

• This is the classic measure of participation. Only students enrolling within 12 months of HS graduation are counted. Students may be enrolled in any state as degree-seeking new freshmen.
• At 53%, Colorado is below the US median by 6 percentage points and ranks 37^th.
• Tom Mortenson (Postsecondary Education Opportunity, September 2002, www.postsecondary.org) frequently reports on participation rates as they relate to issues of higher education access. His figures have been cited in discussions by CCHE ("Colorado Higher Education 2000", January 2000). Mortenson adjusts for graduates of private high schools who are not included in NCES high school graduate counts. The same adjustment has been made here. More details are in "definitions and sources."  Mortenson calls measure A the "college continuation rate." 
• Most other western states have rates below Colorado's: Wyoming, Oregon, Arizona, California, Idaho, Washington, Alaska, Nevada, and Utah.

B--Pct of state HS grads entering a same-state public w/i 12 mo of HS graduation

• This is another legitimate measure of a state system’s success--the percentage of HS graduates from the state who enroll in a public institution in that state within 12 months of graduation.
• Here Colorado trails the US median by only 1 percentage point and ranks 29^th.

C--Pct of new frosh from state entering same-state publics who are w/i 12 mo of HS graduation

• This is simply a descriptive measure--of all new freshmen from a state enrolled in a home state public, what percent graduated within the prior 12 months. It’s a measure of speed of entry into higher education; however, speed is not necessarily a goal of a state system. In fact, a low standing on this measure could be regarded as a sign of success in attracting students beyond high school graduation to higher education.
• Here Colorado is well below the US median, 57% vs. 70%, ranking 48^th.
• Reasons for this difference are beyond the scope of this analysis.
• The difference between Colorado and the US median on this measure was commented on by CCHE in the overview to its Higher Education 2000 publication.
• This difference has major implications for the interpretability of measure A, the classic participation measure, because measure A includes only students enrolling in higher education within 12 months of graduation. The lower the proportion of a state’s HS graduates who go immediately to higher education -- versus even one year later -- the lower the classic participation rate will be for that state.
• For alternative measures without this problem (but with other problems!) see measures E and F.

D--Pct of all new frosh from state who are w/i 12 mo of HS graduation

• This measure is similar to C but describes all freshmen from the state, not just those enrolling in a home state public. Mortenson calls this the "urgent attendance index."
• Here, Colorado trails the US median by 16 percentage points, ranking 50^th. No states rank lower on this measure.

E--Pct of state HS grads entering college anywhere

• This measure counts all students from a state enrolled as freshmen, regardless of length of time from HS graduation.
• The validity of this measure is based on assumptions that
  • some portion of HS graduates not enrolling within 12 months of graduation will do so one or more years later
  • the number delaying enrollment can be estimated by the number of new freshmen more than 12 months past HS graduation
  • most new freshmen from a state did graduate from high schools in that state
  • the number of HS graduates in a state is more or less the same over several years
• These are obviously assumptions that will not always hold true. In fact, this measure can exceed 100%, and does for one state (Minnesota).
• The critical finding is not the absolute value of measure E for Colorado (94%) but the fact that this value exceeds the national median by 14 percentage points, placing Colorado 6^th in the nation. Indeed, Colorado’s value is nearly identical to many of the top five states. This tells a completely different story than measure A!

F--Pct of state HS grads entering a same-state public

• This measure is similar to E but is limited to students from the state enrolling in a home-state public. If a goal of a state system is serving students at home, this is a measure of success.
• Here Colorado’s 62% exceeds the national median by 9 percentage points and ranks 11^th in the nation.

G--Pct of recent state HS grads entering college anywhere who are at a same-state public

• Of HS graduates from a state who enroll anywhere within 12 months of HS graduation, what percent select a public institution in the home state? This is a measure of success within the recent HS graduate population.
• Here Colorado matches the national median at 67%, ranking 27^th.

H--Pct of all new frosh from state at a same-state public

• Of all new freshmen from a state, what percent select a public institution in the home state?
• Colorado’s 67% is at the national median, and ranks 29^th.

The picture for Colorado for 2000 is quite similar to that in 1996 (see http://www.colorado.edu/pba/policy/partic96.htm).  The classic measure (A) is an identical 53% in both years.  On measure F, percent of state HS grads entering a same-state public, the proportion dropped slightly (from 64% to 62%) but Colorado's rank increased from 12^th to 11^th. 

Distribution of each measure over all states

In each plot, the vertical axis shows midpoints of the measure listed for groups of states. The horizontal axis shows number of states. ** = Colorado, && = US median, -- = all other states

Example: on measure A, Colorado (**) and 9 other states have values between 48% and 54%, with 51% the midpoint value for this group (red line). Seventeen states and the US median (&&) fall between 54% and 60%, with midpoint 57% (green line).

A Pct of state HS grads entering college anywhere w/i 12 mo of HS graduation
39%   |----
45%   |----------
51%   |**------------------
57%   |&&--------------------------------
63%   |--------------------------
69%   |--------
      ----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20  22  24

B Pct of state HS grads entering a same-state public w/i 12 mo of HS graduation
12%   |--
20%   |----
28%   |--------------------
36%   |&&**------------------------------------
44%   |--------------------------
52%   |----------
      ----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20  22  24
          
C Pct of new frosh from state entering same-state publics who are w/i 12 mo of HS graduation
54%   |**----
60%   |----------
66%   |----------------------------
72%   |&&------------------------------
78%   |----------------------
84%   |----
      ----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20  22  24

D Pct of all new frosh from state who are w/i 12 mo of HS graduation  
58%   |**----
63%   |--------
68%   |------------------
73%   |&&----------------------------------
78%   |----------------------
83%   |------------
      ----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20  22  24

E Pct of state HS grads entering college anywhere  
 60%   |----------
 68%   |--------------
 76%   |&&--------------------------
 84%   |----------------------------
 92%   |**----------------
100%   |----
       ----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--
           2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20  22  24

F Pct of state HS grads entering a same-state public  
24%   |------
36%   |------
48%   |&&--------------------------------------
60%   |**----------------------------------
72%   |------------
84%   |--
      ----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20  22  24

G Pct of recent state HS grads entering college anywhere who are at a same-state public
24%   |--
36%   |----
48%   |------------
60%   |------------------------
72%   |&&**------------------------------------------
84%   |--------------
      ----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20  22  24

H Pct of all new frosh from state at a same-state public
35%   |----
45%   |--------
55%   |--------
65%   |&&**--------------------------------------
75%   |------------------------------
85%   |----------
      ----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--
          2   4   6   8   10  12  14  16  18  20  22  24
	
	

Considering institution level (two versus four year)

There are additional properties of students and institutions that further complicate the measurement of participation. States vary on how many high school graduates, recent or otherwise, continue on to two or to four year institutions. The measures presented above do not make this distinction. However, exploring these differences might help target efforts to increase participation, and can more precisely document the strengths of states with high participation.

Below is a table of measures similar to those above, but limited to students attending institutions of a specific level. Each measure shows the proportion of recent or all high school graduates continuing on to two or four year institutions. Note that many students attend less-than-two-year institutions, which have been excluded from this analysis (see the "definitions and sources" section for more information).

Ignoring institution level, Colorado's participation rate is below the US median if one considers only recent high school graduates. This gap closes significantly when looking at four year institutions separately. Colorado sends 45% of recent high school graduates on to four year schools (measure A4), which is above the US median and ranks 16^th in the nation. Participation in Colorado’s system of four year public universities is even better. And, if one considers all high school graduates rather than just recent ones (measure E4), Colorado ranks high as well.

Compared to other states, few of Colorado’s recent high school graduates go on to two year institutions of any variety--public or private, inside or outside of Colorado. However, adding freshmen more than 12 months out of high school, Colorado is above the US median on this measure.

Visualizing the data

All measures reported above are ratios formed by various combinations of only nine counts per state, plus totals and subtotals.  The table below shows these counts for Colorado for 2000.

We have found mosaic plots helpful in visualizing these data. In a mosaic plot, the area representing a group is proportional to the size of the group.  Click here to view the mosaic plots (they will open in a new window).

The first plot shows Colorado--the areas in the plot are proportional to the counts in the table.  Plots for California, Wisconsin, and Arizona are also shown, for contrast and comparison.

In each plot, the three vertical slices represent

• Cyan/Light Gray: Enrolled at a two-year institution
• Magenta/Dark Gray: Enrolled at a four-year institution

The two horizontal blocks in each colored slice are

The size of the center slice in the first graph shows the high number of freshmen from Colorado who are not recent graduates, especially compared to California and Wisconsin. The magenta/dark gray portion of the left slice reflects the large proportion of recent graduates from Colorado that enter four year institutions.

Impact of possible differences in reporting practices

In investigating differences among states on components of the participation measures, we asked a selection of public research universities about reporting practices in their states. 

• Who’s considered a "new freshman."
  • In Colorado, CCHE reporting rules restrict "new freshmen" to the letter of the IPEDS definition -- degree-seeking undergraduates with no college work after high school.  
  • Florida and perhaps other states use a broader definition, which includes students with college work done after high school as long as total college work is under 12 hours.  These students are considered transfers in Colorado. 
  • Some states and institutions may count first-time nondegree students as freshmen.  Colorado does not, even if the student is in a "pre-degree" program (for example, CSU Challenge and UNC Access programs). 
• What freshmen are considered "recent high school graduates." The IPEDS instructions specify that recent means "within the last 12 months."
  • Through CCHE, Colorado counts as recent any student graduating from high school in the fall, spring, or summer prior to fall entry.  For example, fall 2003 "recent high school graduates" includes fall 2002, spring 2003, and summer 2003. 
  • The University of Florida reports that the State of Florida counts the two most recent spring high school graduating classes as "recent". 
  • Students with missing high school graduation year might be counted as "recent" in some states. 
• What freshmen are considered to be from a state
  • Most students live and attend high school in the same state.  Some do not, and others have parents in more than one state.  Still other students move to another state after high school. 
  • Accordingly, the restrictiveness of rules for deciding whether a student is from a state could directly affect reported counts.

We have not cataloged reporting practices in every state, or judged the magnitude of the effect of those we've checked.  However, it is clear that Colorado's narrow definitions of new freshmen and recent high school graduates (which match the IPEDS definitions) do serve to lower Colorado's standing on the classic measure of college participation (measure A).  This is yet another reason to consider alternative measures in building the full story of college participation.

Definitions and sources

• Sources
  • IPEDS fall 2000 migration survey (Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, of the National Center for Education Statistics of the US Department of Education). Information on the collection at http://www.nces.ed.gov/ipeds/data.asp; data available through the Peer Analysis system at http://www.nces.ed.gov/ipedspas/. For counts of recent and total first-time freshmen by student state by institution state and for classification of institutions.
  • NCES compilation of public HS graduates by state. From Common Core of Data, http://nces.ed.gov/ccd/bat/
  • "Chance for College by Age 19 by State in 2000" by Tom Mortenson in Postsecondary Education Opportunity, September 2002 (http://www.postsecondary.org/). Data retrieved from http://www.higheredinfo.org/ (Participation reports section, "College-Going Rates of High School Graduates - Directly from HS"). The adjustment for private HS grads comes from a separate NCES survey of private high schools, http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2001/2001330.pdf. This adjustment is made in the HigherEdInfo posting.
  • Code reference: l:/ir/emgt/adm/migrate/2000/partic*, LMcC, PBA.
• New freshman. A student enrolling in an institution as an undergraduate for the first time, who has no prior postsecondary work (except that earned while in high school) that is being applied to requirements at the new institution. Only students seeking a degree or other formal award are counted.
  • Counted in fall only but is supposed to include students entering in summer as well.
  • Not the same as "freshman class standing." A "new freshman" may have sophomore or junior standing due to Advanced Placement credit or college courses taken during high school.
• Public. Not private, not proprietary. US service academies are also excluded from "public" in this analysis in order to focus on state systems.
• Home public. A public institution in the student’s home state.
• Within 12 months of HS graduation: As determined by the reporting institution.
• Student home state: As determined by the reporting institution. In some cases the student’s home state may not be state of HS graduation. 50 states are included in this analysis.
  • Washington DC and Puerto Rico and other outlying areas are excluded because their patterns differ wildly from those of other states.
  • In our previous analyses, students with home state Washington were excluded because of suspect data for 2- year institutions in that state. However, they are included in this report.
• Institution state. All institutions are included, including Washington DC and those outside the 50 states (for example, Puerto Rico). In our previous report, institutions in outlying areas were excluded (none listed any Colorado students). They were included this time to match Mortenson’s counts, though their inclusion does not dramatically alter the results.
• HS graduates. Public-school graduates as reported by states to NCES, plus private school graduates estimated from the NCES Private School Survey (see sources).
• Institutions included: Two and four year institutions reporting any new freshmen to IPEDS. Limited to active, degree-granting, Title IV institutions (can grant federal financial aid). This follows standard NCES practice for analyses of IPEDS data (a small change from our previous report). Includes public, private, and proprietary institutions.  Less-than-two-year schools were not included in this report, though they were in our previous analyses. Again, this was done to match the Mortenson data. There are many such institutions in the current data, whereas there were few reporting new freshmen in the 1996 data used previously. Excluding less-than-two-year institutions can impact apparent participation rates, particularly for measures that include non-recent high school graduates.
• All measures are based on these values for each state. All are for students from that state.
  • FROSHALL New frosh -- all, fall 2000
  • FROSHREC New frosh w/i 12 mo of HS graduation
  • HPUBALL All from state in a home-state public
  • HPUBREC Recent HS grads in home-state publics
  • HSGRADS HS grads, 2000
  • FROSHALL2 (4) New frosh -- all, in 2 (4) year institutions
  • FROSHREC2 (4) New frosh w/i 12 mo of HS graduation, in 2 (4) year institutions
  • HPUBALL2 (4) All from state in a 2 (4) year home-state public
  • HPUBREC2 (4) Recent HS grads in a 2 (4) year home-state public
• Calculation of the measures
  • A = froshrec/hsgrads: % of HS grads in college w/i 12 mo
  • B = hpubrec/hsgrads : % of HSgrds at home public w/i 12 mo
  • C = hpubrec/hpuball : % in home publics who are w/i 12 mo
  • D = froshrec/froshall: % of new frosh who are w/i 12 mo
  • E = froshall/hsgrads : % of state HS grads in college
  • F = hpuball/hsgrads : % of state HS grads at a home public
  • G = hpubrec/froshrec : % of w/i 12 mo of HS at home public
  • H = hpuball/froshall : % all new frosh at a home public
  • A2(4) = froshrec2(4)/hsgrads: % of HS grads in 2 (4) year college w/i 12 mo
  • B2(4) = hpubrec2(4)/hsgrads : % of HSgrds at 2 (4) year home public w/i 12 mo
  • E2(4) = froshall2(4)/hsgrads : % of state HS grads in 2 (4) year college
  • F2(4) = hpuball2(4)/hsgrads : % of state HS grads at a 2 (4) year home public

Link to the data Link to an Excel workbook with 4 datasets and field definitions . Has no results. Includes data by student state, by institution state, and by individual Colorado institution. Useful for additional analyses.

PBA: LMcC -- l:\ir\emgt\adm\migrate\2000\partic*.*. Last updated 10/24/2003.

Last revision 12/06/07