FUTURE TRENDS

This section of the Scorecard differs from the earlier sections in that it provides a brief summary of projected future trends. These projections are estimates, based on data currently available and on attendance decisions of students over the past couple of years.

High School Graduate Projections

 Using data provided by the Colorado Department of Education, the Commission projects public high school graduates.
Findings:
The most recent projection shows a 9,000 student increase between 1994 and 2000, a growth of almost 30 percent.

The largest increases are projected for 1997 and 1998.

Projection of Colorado Public High School Graduates
Group 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
HS Graduates 31,867 33,235 33,899 35,613 38,018 39,330 41,252 
SOURCE: CCHE Projections                                          CCHE

Population Projections

 The Commission also obtains projections of the Colorado population from the State Demographer. The most recently available projections were from December 1994. They are summarized by five age groups.
Findings:
Growth is not projected to increase uniformly across age groups. In particular, an absolute decline in persons aged 30 to 39 is forecast by 2000.

Projection of Colorado Population, by Selected Age Groups
(in thousands)
Group 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
17 -- 24 440 452 464 479 488 494 503
25 -- 29 225 212 207 208 218 225 232
30 -- 39 673 670 657 638 614 592 569
40 -- 54 765 805 844 884 918 951 984
55 -- 64 279 288 297 308 324 340 357 
SOURCE: Colorado State Demographer                                CCHE

Enrollment Demand Projections

 Using the demographic projections, and looking at attendance patterns, participation rates, and graduation and retention rates, the CCHE has produced projections of student demand by institutional sector. These projections are included in the following table.
Findings:
Growth in demand is projected to occur, but not evenly throughout the system. The greatest increase in demand is projected for the Universities and Colleges (11,000 more FTE) and Research Universities (7,000 more FTE). Increases in demand are forecast to be less at the Community Colleges (plus 5,000 FTE) and Local District Colleges (plus 1,000 FTE).

The differential projections are a result of the types of students who historically enroll. The four-year colleges have far more traditional first-time freshmen, a group projected to increase by almost 30 percent, while community colleges have a larger adult population, which is not projected to increase as much.

The greatest growth is also projected to take place towards the end of the planning period, starting in 1997-98, with more moderate growth in earlier years.

Projection of Demand
for In-State FTE Enrollment
(in thousands)
Sector FY 1994 FY 1995 FY 1996 FY 1997 FY 1998 FY 1999 FY 2000 FY 2001
Public Institution Total 117.6 117.5 120.5 122.6 127.2 133.3 136.8 141.7
State System Summary 108.9 108.9 111.8 113.7 118.1 124.0 127.2 132.0
Research Universities 31.6 31.5 30.8 31.4 33.0 35.1 36.3 38.0
Universities and Colleges 44.0 44.2 46.4 47.3 49.3 52.1 53.6 55.8
Specialized-Medical 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Community Colleges 30.8 30.8 32.1 32.6 33.4 34.3 34.9 35.7
Local District Colleges 8.8 8.6 8.7 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.8 
SOURCE: Colorado State Demographer                                          CCHE

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