Manuscripts 2008
Social Distance in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the North Caucasus Region of Russia:
Inter and Intra-Ethnic Attitudes and Identities
Kristin Bakke, Xun Cao, John O’Loughlin, Michael D. Ward
Nations and Nationalism, (Forthcoming, 2008)
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine ethnic divisions in conflict-affected and post-conflict
societies. Conventional wisdom tells us that societies that have experienced violent
struggles in which individuals of different ethnic groups have (been) mobilized
against each other are likely to become ossified along ethnic lines. Indeed, both
policy-makers and scholars often assume that such divisions are one of the main
challenges that must be overcome to restore peace after war. We comparatively examine
this conventional wisdom by mapping dimensions of social distance among 4,000 survey
respondents in Bosnia and the North Caucasus region of Russia. The surveys were
carried out in December 2005. Using multidimensional scaling, we do not find patterns
of clear attitudinal cleavages among members of different ethnic groups in Bosnia. Nor
do we find patterns of clear ethnic divisions in the North Caucasus, although our
social distance matrices reveal a difference between Russians and ethnic minority groups.
Detecting war-induced abandoned agricultural land in northeast
Bosnia using multispectral, multitemporal Landsat TM imagery
Frank Witmer
International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 29 No. 13 (2008)
Abstract:The use of satellite technology by military planners has a relatively long history as a
tool of
warfare, but little research has used satellite technology to study the
effects of war. This
research addresses this gap by applying satellite remote sensing imagery to study the effects
of war on land-use/land-cover change in northeast Bosnia. Though the most severe war
impacts are visible at local scales (e.g. destroyed buildings), this study focuses on impacts
to agricultural land. Four change detection methods were evaluated for their effectiveness
in detecting abandoned agricultural land using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data from
before, during, and after the 1992-95 war. Ground reference data were collected in May of
2006 at survey sites selected using a stratified random sampling approach based on the
derived map of abandoned agricultural land. Fine resolution Quickbird imagery was also
used to verify the accuracy of the classification. Results from these analyses show that a
supervised classification of the Landsat TM data identified abandoned agricultural land
with an overall accuracy of 82.5%. The careful use of freely available Quickbird imagery,
both as training data for the supervised classifier and as supplementary ground reference
data, suggest these methods are applicable to other civil wars too dangerous for researchers’
field work.
Manuscripts 2007
Spatial analysis of civil war violence
John O'Loughlin and Clionadh Raleigh
In K. Cox, M. Low and J. Robinson (eds) A Handbook of Political Geography, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 2007 Chapter 30
Abstract:The focus of this chapter is to understand the
distribution of these civil wars across the globe and to indicate some significant gaps in the
research on the geography of violent domestic conflicts. We also identify what we see as
promising avenues of research that link political geographic approaches to the much larger
accumulation of research in political science and economics on the causes and frequency of civil
wars.
Preface to the Special Issue and Caucasus Map Supplement
John O'Loughlin, Frank Witmer, Thomas Dickinson, Nancy Thorwardson, and Edward Holland
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:The papers in this special issue are designed to illustrate key aspects of the Caucasus region fifteen years after the end of the Soviet Union. For such a region that is so complex in both physiographic and human features, we had to be quite selective in our choice of subjects. As a result, we present an overview of the region as well as five specialized papers on aspects of the economic, political and population geography of the Caucasus. Originally, we intended to focus solely on the North Caucasus, the Russian part of the region, but because the links across the Caucasus are still intense in political and human terms, we decided to include one paper by Jean Radvanyi and Shakhmardan Muduev that considers the nature of these linkages from Transcaucasia (as the Russians call it) and the North Caucasus. Two papers offer more detail about the post-Soviet population developments in the two largest regions, Stavropol’ Kray and the Republic of Dagestan, a paper reflects on the impacts of the Chechen wars on the neighboring regions, and a fifth article contrasts the perspectives from the federal center, Moscow and those from the various stripes of political ideology in Russia with the opinions of the local populations about the causes of conflicts in the region.
The Caucasus in a Time of Conflict, Demographic Transition, and Economic Change
John O'Loughlin, Vladimir Kolossov, Jean Radvanyi
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:
In an introductory paper to a special issue of Eurasian Geography and Economics, the authors examine contemporary economic, social, demographic, and political developments in the Caucasus in light of their historical contexts. They emphasize the need to look beyond simple ethnic categories to understand the nature of local tensions and also propose that the profound nature of the post-Soviet upheavals has uprooted long-standing practices. The paper covers physical diversity, historical and administrative geopolitics, Stalinist deportations in the 1940s, and post-Soviet demographic and economic developments. An introduction to each of the five papers comprising the special issue follows the regional overview.
Challenges Facing the Mountain Peoples of the Caucasus
Jean Radvanyi, Shakhmardan S. Muduyev
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:
Two geographers report on the current challenges facing the inhabitants of the Caucasus mountains on the borders of Russia and its southern neighbors, Georgia and Azerbaijan. The authors discuss the impacts of new post-Soviet borders and controls as well as unresolved conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Chechnya, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and the Prigorodnyy district of North Ossetia, which have disrupted traditional ways of life and forced the peoples of the mountains to migrate or adjust their economic activities. Based on extensive field work in 2005-2006, and in the 1990s, they detect some signs of improvement in the new privatized environment after the difficult years of transition. However, the weak infrastructure of the region, combined with the high costs associated with development and modernization of peripheral locations, suggest that resettlement from the high mountains to the cities on the plains and piedmont is likely to continue.
The Wars in Chechnya and Their Effects on Neighboring Regions
Olga I. Vendina, Vitaliy S. Belozerov, and Andrew Gustafson
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:
A team of Russia- and U.S.-based geographers presents and discusses the economic and demographic consequences of the conflicts in Chechnya on that republic, on the neighboring ethnic republics of the North Caucasus, as well as on the adjoining region of Stavropol' with a majority of Russian inhabitants. Formal economic indicators, which generally exhibit negative trends since 1991, are contrasted with the large, diverse shadow economy that tends to absorb federal development funding diverted from the formal sector to the benefit of local elites. The authors explore the extent to which economic activity once based in Chechnya is dispersed to contiguous regions, discuss changes in the ethnic composition of the republics ("de-Russification"), and consider whether Chechnya and the adjoining republics will ever regain the close economic, political, and social ties with Russia that prevailed during the Soviet period.
An Empire's Fraying Edge? The North Caucasus Instability in Contemporary Russian Geopolitical Culture
Vladimir Kolossov and Gerard Toal
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:
A Russian and a U.S.-based political geographer explore how geopolitical cultures and traditions function in imagining and discursively framing events in specific regions within a particular state. More specifically, this paper undertakes a focused examination of competing elite storylines in Russian geopolitical culture about the North Caucasus during an eventful year (October 2005-September 2006) that encompassed the large-scale terrorist attack against the city of Nal'chik, the change of leadership in Dagestan, and the assassination of the prominent terrorist Shamil Basayev by federal forces. The paper first summarizes Kremlin, left/Communist, national-patriotic, and liberal "storylines" on the basis of a content analysis of major periodicals representing each of these viewpoints, followed by a survey of the opinions of ordinary citizens in the North Caucasus (n = 2,000) regarding the validity of these storylines.
Resettlement and Migration in Post-Soviet Dagestan
Eldar M. Eldarov, Edward C. Holland, Sharafudin M. Aliyev, Zaid M. Abdulagatov, and Zagir V. Atayev
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:
This paper investigates migratory patterns in the North Caucasian republic of Dagestan. It relies on prior literature, both in Russian and English, to establish the basic form of migration in the republic and recent census data to describe these patterns. The authors then analyze responses from a December 2005 survey of Dagestani residents about their migration intentions to investigate the motivations underlying these patterns. The paper investigates the extent to which economic incentives vis-à-vis other traditional assumptions associated with migration theory maintain in the case of Dagestan, and explores the impact of migration on interethnic relations in the republic.
Population Change and Migration in Stavropol' Kray: The Effects of Regional Conflicts and Economic Restructuring
John O’Loughlin, Alexander Panin, and Frank Witmer
Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.48 no.1 (2007)
Abstract:
The paper, by a joint American-Russian team of researchers, examines major changes in population composition and migration structure in Stavropol' Kray since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In addition to documenting increased rural- to urban-migration, the authors explore impacts on the kray of nearby conflicts in ethnic republics of the North Caucasus and in Transcaucasia, particularly the shift in ethnic composition of rural rayons in eastern Stavropol' (from Russian to non-Russian populations) and migration of Armenians and Russians to cities in western Stavropol'. Responses to a December 2005 survey (conducted by the authors) on past and possible future moves are presented together with an assessment of factors underlying the decision to move (mostly economic), as mediated by age, economic status, and gender. Also included is a detailed account of shifts in a typical rayon (Krasnogvardeyskiy—the birthplace of Mikhail Gorbachev) revealing trends that bode ill for service provision and a turnaround in negative population trends.
Accounting for Separatist Sentiment in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the North Caucasus of Russia: A Comparative Analysis of Survey Responses
John O'Loughlin and Gearóid Ó Tuathail (Gerard Toal)
Forthcoming in Ethnic and Racial Studies (2007)
Abstract: A tenet of modern studies of nationalism is that mobilized nations will want to live separately
from members of other groups to achieve ethno-territorial goals. A comparison of attitudes to a
question on preferences for ethnic separatism for two zones of conflict, Bosnia-Herzegovina and
the North Caucasus of Russia reveals large differences both between and within the regions.
For the 2000 respondents surveyed in each region in December 2005, more than half of those in
Bosnia-Herzegovina believed that geographic separatism will improve the state of ethnic
relations while the comparative figure for the North Caucasus was only 13 per cent. When
examining sub-categories of the ethnic groups in each region, traditional social science factors,
like religiosity, perceived income and levels of pride yielded significant differences but more so
for Bosnia-Herzegovina than for the North Caucasus. Intuitive factors, such as experience with
violence during the wars, were not consistently revealing and significant. The best explanations
for separatist sentiment in both locations were geographical location (individual towns and
counties) and respondents’ levels of general trust.
Manuscripts 2006
Cooperation without Trust in Conflict Ridden Societies: Survey Results from Bosnia and the North Caucasus.
Michael D. Ward, John V. O'Loughlin, Kristin M. Bakke & Xun Cao.
August 2006.
Abstract: Bosnia and the North Caucasus are ethnically diverse, post-communist societies, where the different ethnic groups at times have co-existed peacefully and at other times have found themselves at odds with one another or their governments. This study examines beliefs in the possibility of inter-ethnic cooperation in each society, based on survey instruments aimed at measuring attitudes and preferences towards the contemporary situation, socio-demographic characteristics, and the nature of cross-national relations in the light of experiences of conflict and continued unsettled political environment of the region. Our dependent variable, belief in the possibility of inter-ethnic cooperation, is a categorical variable based on responses the following survey stub: Among national groups, it is possible to create cooperation but never to fully trust. We measure and correct for survey response incomparability across BiH and the North Caucasus by using the anchoring vignette along with an estimation technique called chopit (short for compound hierarchical ordered probit), which allows us to incorporate anchoring vignettes.
We find that there is a substantial belief in the possibility of inter-ethnic cooperation both in BiH and the North Caucasus, in spite of substantial inter-ethnic violence in each location. Moreover, it appears that while the violent ethnic conflict in the recent history of BiH has created greater barriers to inter-ethnic cooperation, but the vast majority of Croats, Bosniacs, and Serbs, agree or strongly agree that cooperation is possible, even without the elusive inter-ethnic ``trust.'' The same is true in the North Caucasus region, although we have not been able to conduct surveys in Chechnya or Ingusetia. Beyond ascriptive and demographic characteristics, very few attitudinal variables seem to be important in determining this belief in the possibility of cooperation. However, ``pocketbook'' issues seem quite prominent as those in BiH and the North Caucasus who believe that things are getting better and who also have higher levels of material well being are more optimistic about cooperation. Those still struggling to survive, or who perceive their situation to continue to deteriorate are less optimistic about inter-ethnic cooperation.
Bosnia-Herzegovina Ten Years after Dayton: Constitutional Change and Public Opinion
Gearóid Ó Tuathail (Gerard Toal), John O’Loughlin, and Dino Djipa
Eurasian Geography and Economics (2006)
Abstract: Two American-based political geographers and the head of a Bosnian public opinion
research organization present and discuss the results of public opinion polls related to the
tenth anniversary of the Dayton Peace Accords. The paper reviews talks between Bosnia-
Herzegovina (BiH) and the European Union (EU) aimed at signing a Stabilization and Association
Agreement that should pave the way for eventual membership of BiH in the EU, a
process that would stimulate reform of BiH’s notoriously complex governance structure. The
most recent constitutional change proposals are reviewed, and results of public opinion surveys
(N = 614–2000 in late 2005) on constitutional change, reform of the governance structure
of BiH state, and the Dayton Peace Accords after ten years are presented and discussed.
