IBS Newsletter

September 1999


Institute of Behavioral Science
University of Colorado


Program Activities

Environment and Behavior Program

In Print

White, Gilbert F. 1999. "A Decade of Missed Opportunities?" in Jon Ingleton, (Ed.), Natural Disaster Management. Tudor Rose: Leicester, England, pp. 284-5. This chapter, in a book sponsored by the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, 1990-2000, points out some of the opportunities that the organizers had neglected. It notes that the U.S. committee advising on the Decade had predicted that the effort would reduce average annual losses by 50 percent whereas they have increased substantially. It comments on the lack of attention to: lessons from previous international decades; measuring the benefits from efforts to reduce vulnerability and precision in estimating benefits and costs from natural events. It also notes that a 1986 proposal from a National Research Council task force that the Decade encourage every community school to explore the national hazards to which it is vulnerable and possible mitigation measures was rejected and the task force dismissed.

Natural Hazards Center

Mary Fran Myers testified on HR 21, the "Homeowner's Insurance Availability Act of 1999," before the U.S. House of Representatives' Committee on Banking and Financial Services on July 30 in Washington, DC. The bill would provide federally-backed reinsurance for state-operated insurance programs and private sector insurance companies that suffer extraordinary losses from hurricanes and earthquakes. Myers' testimony focused on policy insights gleaned from the Center's recently completed "Assessment of Research and Applications for Natural Hazards" project. Specifically, those insights suggest that HR 21 is ill-advised as it is not well integrated with other hazard mitigation policies and there is a lack of knowledge about the unanticipated outcomes of such a program.

Myers and Jacquelyn L. Monday have been invited to present their paper, "Coping with Disasters by Building Local Resiliency," for the Public Entity Risk Institute (PERI) Internet Symposium on "Dealing with Disaster." The symposium, October 4-8, will focus on what communities can do to better prepare for and recover from disasters. For more information visit PERI's Web site: http://www.riskinstitute.org.

Political and Economic Change Program

James R. Scarritt attended the conference "The New Millennium Challenges and Strategies for a Globalizing World" in Paris on August 9-10. This was the first international conference sponsored by the Comparative Interdisciplinary Studies Section/International Studies Association. He chaired the panel on "Law, Globalization and Human Rights" and presented his paper, "Globalization, Democratization, and Ethnopolitical Conflict: A Neo-Parsonian Perspective," on the panel, "Democratization: Challenges and Global Implications." As we approach the new millennium, scholars and citizens are thinking more seriously than ever about strategies for dealing with the challenges of the globalizing world. Prominent among these challenges are sustaining and consolidating newly established, fragile democracies and managing the ethnopolitical conflicts that have have recently become more severe in many countries, both democratic and authoritarian. Both of these changes are intimately connected with globalization and challenges to it from local communities and social movements based on specific interests, class or ethnopolitics. The purpose of this paper is to present a theoretical framework that can be used to develop and test theories about the interrelations among these phenomena in a manner that will lead to the formulation of strategies to deal with the multiple challenges of globalization in the new millennium. The paper is a first draft of a "think piece" that attempts to begin the ambitious task of addressing some of the major issues of the new millennium in a new and different way.

Problem Behavior Program

Center for the Study and Prevention of Violence

Delbert S. Elliott delivered the keynote address at the conference, "Take Your Next Steps: Violence Prevention and Crisis Management in Maine Schools," August 11-12 in Augusta, Maine. Elliott shared information on what works in violence prevention and what communities and schools can do to insure school safety. On August 25-31 he hosted Day 2 of the National Summit On Violence in Denver. Elliott offered welcoming remarks to summit participants and then delivered the keynote address "Blueprints for Violence Prevention - Programs That Work." The conference included other violence prevention experts such as, Shay Bilchik of the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention. Tiffany Shaw and Landa Heys attended the conference and hosted a CSPV exhibit.

Katherine Irwin presented "Deviant Youth Subcultures" at the American Sociological Association Annual Conference, August 6-10 in Chicago. Her paper won second place in the Social Problems Theory Student Paper category.

Jane M. Grady and Tiffany Shaw presented "Safe Communities -- Safe Schools" at the Adams Twelve Five Star School District In-Service, "Building Assets In Our Youth: Tools for the Future." The one-day event was held August 23 at Horizon High School in Northglenn. Grady and Shaw reviewed school violence prevention issues and the Center's new Safe Communities -- Safe Schools Partnership Initiative.

Sharon F. Mihalic participated in the National Advisory Council on "Violence Against Women: An Agenda for the Nation on Violence Against Women." The task force meeting was held August 5-6 in San Francisco.

Population Processes Program

Richard Rogers was invited to the National Conference on Health Statistics, a conference that draws 1,600 health and health care researchers and practitioners, in Washington, DC on August 2-4. His presentation, "Using the 1993 National Mortality Followback Survey (NMFS) to Examine Accidental and Violent Causes of Death in the United States," focused on Centers for Disease Control's intent by mechanism matrix to better understand mortality due to accidents, homicides, and suicides. The presentation explored the mechanism of suicides and homicides--ranging from asphyxia, hanging, poisoning, stabbing, and submersion, to firearms. For both suicide and homicide firearm mortality, Rogers investigated the type of firearm used--ranging from revolver, pistol, handgun, and shotgun, to rifle. Moreover, for homicide deaths, he revealed whether the decedent knew the alleged perpetrator. Thus, the presentation highlighted the unique contributions of the 1993 NMFS, and the importance of accidental and violent causes of death as major causes of preventable mortality in the United States.

The American Sociological Association (ASA) publication committee approved the nomination of Richard Rogers to a three-year term on the editorial board of the Journal of Health and Social Behavior. This journal, which is the official journal of the ASA, publishes articles that further the understanding of social, structural, and contextual relations of health, illness, and medicine.


BITS AND BYTES FROM SSDAC

Users of Word, Excel, and Internet Explorer should be aware of new security issues. Word files can use templates that may contain macro viruses and bypass the macro virus checking feature. Excel files opened in a Web browser may also bypass default user warnings. The Web site http://www.microsoft.com/security/ is a good source for current information about these issues and has links to patches that deal with such problems.

It continues to be important to keep anti-virus software up-to-date. Contact the Social Science Data Analysis Center for assistance with software patches or updates and for further information about safe computing.


In Focus: Andrei Rogers

The Geography of Population

Andrei Rogers, Professor of Geography, has been at the University of Colorado since 1983 as Director of the Population Program at IBS. During the past five years he has been conducting research in three principal areas: immigration and the geography of the foreign-born population in the United States, elderly migration and population redistribution, and the indirect estimation of migration.

The foreign-born population of the United States grew from 9.6 million in 1970 to 14.1 million in 1980 and stood at 19.8 million in 1990. It is estimated to currently number over 26 million. This growth has helped to propel immigration issues to the forefront of the national policy agenda and has generated an increased backlash against continued immigration, particularly of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers. The backlash has been centered primarily in those states with the largest concentrations of the foreign-born, notably California. Approximately a third of the enumerated U.S. foreign-born population resides in California, accounting for about a quarter of that state's population.

Imagine the geography of the foreign-born population in the United States at the middle of this century, and imagine its changes since then. How did the demographic processes of immigration, emigration, internal migration, and mortality act to shape the changing geography? How did the fertility patterns of foreign-borns and native-borns combine with the migration and mortality patterns of the latter to shape the geography of the native-born population and the consequent foreign-born shares of regional populations? How have the internal migration patterns of the foreign-borns differed from those of the native-born population? These are some of the principal questions that have motivated my research over the past five years. Supported by a grant from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), and assisted by several graduate and undergraduate students, I have been seeking answers to such questions by modeling the spatial population dynamics of foreign-born and native-born populations in the United States during the past half-century.

The foreign-borns differ from the native-borns in their propensities to migrate. By definition they have already migrated at least once in their lives, and studies have shown that those who have migrated before are more likely to do so again. But nativity concentration is seen as deterring migration, and several studies have found that native non-Hispanic whites, for example, are more likely to migrate (interstate and intrastate) than are foreign-borns. Others have obtained conflicting findings because of the regional heterogeneity of foreign-born subpopulation. For example, Asian-borns show national outmigration propensities that are twice as large as those of the native-born population, while Mexican-borns show consistently lower migration propensities when compared to native-borns. But considerable regional differences prevail, and in a paper published earlier this year in International Migration Review, former graduate geography student Sabine Henning and I report that not only are the migration levels different for different sub-populations of the foreign-born, but so too are the spatial structures of their respective migration streams.

In a paper describing immigration's impact on elderly population redistribution, prepared for the National Institute on Aging-supported 1997 Third Colorado Conference on Elderly Migration and published in Research on Aging this year, graduate student James Raymer and I trace the regional evolution of the elderly population in the United States since 1950, focusing in particular on the changes introduced by the new birthplace-specific composition of immigration developing since 1965. Dramatic changes have occurred in the age pyramids of the foreign-born population over the past decades, as the largely European-born population has aged and dominated the composition of the elderly foreign-born population, at the same time that the more recent Latino and Asian immigrants have increasingly dominated the composition of the foreign-born population of working age. Almost 40% of the foreign-born population in 1950 was aged 60 and over compared to just 10% for the native-born population. By 1990 these two percentages were almost identical: 18% and 17%, respectively.

Although the principal focus of the multi-year NICHD-funded study has been migration and spatial redistribution of the foreign-born and native-born populations in the United States, the absence of adequate data on territorial mobility--for example, on emigration--forced us to develop estimates of some migration streams indirectly. In the process new methodological approaches had to be explored and tested for the first time, drawing on the emerging literature on the statistical analysis of data with missing values. Some of the results were presented at a workshop on the indirect estimation of migration that was convened in Estes Park early this year. A special issue of Mathematical Population Studies devoted to this topic that I edited was published this summer. This was followed by a short course on indirect estimation offered by Professor Frans Willekens of the University of Groningen in The Netherlands in July and the submission of a grant proposal to the National Science Foundation to support our further collaborative work on this subject.


Human Research Deadlines

By federal law, all faculty, staff, and student research that involves any contact with human subjects requires some level of prior review and approval. All new protocols requiring regular review are due in the Graduate School office by 4:15 pm on the following dates:

September 7
October 1
November 1
December 3

Contact Sheryl Jensen in the Graduate School at 2-7099 for more information on regular, expedited, and exempt review and to obtain appropriate forms. Forms are also available in department offices. Be sure you are using the most current version of the form. You can also check their Web site at http://www.colorado.edu/GraduateSchool/HRC/.


Research Proposals Funded

Environment and Behavior Program

James L. Wescoat, Jr.
Water poverty and sustainable livelihoods in Colorado
NSF, 08/01/99 - 07/31/02, new, $210,681


Research Proposals Submitted

Environment and Behavior Program

Charles W. Howe
A theoretical and empirical analysis of the functioning of water markets in different economic and social settings.
NFS, 06/01/00 - 08/31/01, new, $129,433

Population Processes Program

Andrei Rogers
Age and spatial interaction and the indirect estimation of migration.
NFS, 06/01/00 - 05/30/02, new, $90,581

Rachel M. Silvey
Migration under crisis and recovery: household safety nets in two regions of Indonesia.
NFS, 05/12/00 - 05/14/02, new, $133,958

Problem Behavior Program

David H. Huizinga and Delbert S. Elliott
Understanding delinquency: a longitudinal multi-disciplinary study of developmental patterns.
DOJ, 10/01/99 - 09/30/00, renew, $687,600


Upcoming Colloquia

There is an online listing of upcoming and recent colloquia.


Institute of Behavioral Science

Richard Jessor, Institute Director


IBS Newsletter

Sugandha Brooks, Newsletter Editor
Richard L. Cook, Web site coordinator


Institute of Behavioral Science
University of Colorado at Boulder
Boulder, CO 80309-0483

(303) 492-8147

IBS@Colorado.EDU