IBS Newsletter

September 1998

Institute of Behavioral Science
University of Colorado

Kudos

Lonna Atkeson, former Graduate Research Assistant at the Political and Economic Change Program, has won the Emerging Scholar Award from the Political Organizations and Parties section of the American Political Science Association (APSA). She will be presented with the award at the APSA annual meeting in Boston, September 2-6.

Program Activities

Environment and Behavior Program

Gilbert F. White attended in London and Stockholm on August 8-14 a series of discussions with members of a team that has completed the initial field work on a re-study of the 34 sites in East Africa that were investigated first in 1967 to learn quantities of domestic water used; cost of obtaining water in terms of time, calories, monetary charges, and health; and the factors affecting choice. The first results had been published in Drawers of Water, University of Chicago Press, 1972. The new study is funded by European development agencies, and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency arranged a special session at the Stockholm Water Symposium, where tentative findings could be reviewed with agency representatives and other interested persons. Since returning, he has helped in the review of a City of Boulder analysis of a recent report on floods on South Boulder Creek.

Charles W. Howe attended the annual conference of the Universities' Council on Water Resources (UCOWR) in Hood River, Oregon. Howe is on the Board of Directors of UCOWR and he and James L. Wescoat are the delegates to the annual meeting from UC-Boulder. Howe presented the paper "The Effects of Privatization: The Case of British Water." The gist of the paper is that the United Kingdom has replaced publically owned monopolies supplying urban water with privately owned monopolies. Since it is essentially impossible to create active competition for urban water, a very heavy regulatory regime has been created to prevent monopolistic exploitation. Since opportunities for improving the performance of the public companies were not seriously considered, it is not clear what has been gained. A major institutional issue in the water resources area in the US is how to reconcile a desire for greater local participation in water policy and management at the watershed level with the need for coordinated policies and practices at the river basin level.

James R. McGoodwin gave the conclusionary address at a conference in St. John's, Newfoundland, May 29-31. The conference, "Bringing Fishers' Knowledge into Fisheries Science and Management," was supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, as well as the Institute of Social and Economic Research and the Eco-Research Project, both at Memorial University of Newfoundland. Participants included scientists, academics, and government officials, and, notably, many fishermen and fisherwomen from North Atlantic fisheries. McGoodwin also presented a paper titled "Prospects and Problems Entailed in Integrating Fishers' Knowledge into Contemporary Fisheries Science and Management."

Anthony J. Bebbington attended a meeting of the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences on August 5-7 in Cotocachi and Quito, Ecuador. The theme of the meeting was the emergence in recent years, and the implications of municipal governments that have close links to ethnically defined social movements. This has been an important phenomenon in recent years in the Andes and raises the question as to whether these types of government offer potential for more inclusive forms of local democracy and development.

Anthony and Denise Bebbington will be at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University in California for a year's fellowship. Anthony Bebbington will be working on two writing projects. One will be on the links between institutional and land use change in the Ecuadorian Andes over the last 40 years, linking this to the larger discussion on the so-called "viability" of livelihoods in the Andean region as a whole. The other project will be on the shifting roles of market, state, and civil society actors in development in the region.

Environment and Behavior Program
in print

Bebbington, Anthony J. June 1998. "Sustaining the Andes? Social capital and policies for rural regeneration in Bolivia," Mountain Research and Development, 18(2), pp. 173-181. This paper extends debates about social capital to an analysis of the role of local institutions in establishing environmentally-sustainable development in the Bolivian Andes. Evidence suggests that local organizations have helped localities negotiate more effectively with state, market, and other civil society actors, as well as provide access to new, cleaner technology, financial resources, and new markets. However, the impact of local institutions in reversing processes of rural decline varies among locations, and for some areas progressive decline and out-migration seem likely. Rural regeneration is only likely to occur in these areas through concerted policy commitment to highland small farm production. This is unlikely in the absence of effective social mobilization at a national level.

Natural Hazards Center

On August 4, Sylvia Dane spoke at the Front Range Emergency Managers Federation on the services provided by the Natural Hazards Center. Dane provided information on the types of publications produced by the Center, information available on their Web site, the library services provided by the Center, recent research projects, the annual Hazards Research Workshop, and the new Disaster Recovery Assistance Teams project. On August 12, Dane attended a meeting of the Boulder Campus Emergency Management Operations Groups (EMOG). The two major issues identified by the group are the flood risk along Boulder Creek and the Year 2000 bug, which may cause major disruptions to automated systems on campus. EMOG voted to work on both problems at the same time and to recommend to the Chancellor that the campus establish an emergency operations center to handle the Y2K problem prior to January 1, 2000.

Jeanine Stevens joined the staff of the Natural Hazards Center as a Professional Research Assistant on August 24. One of her responsibilities will be developing a framework for creating Disaster Recovery Assistance Teams, a new project the Center is undertaking with funding from the Public Entity Risk Institute. Stevens comes to the Center from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Office of Coastal and Resource Management in Silver Spring, Maryland. She holds masters degrees in regional planning from the University of North Carolina and in public administration from Florida Atlantic University.

Natural Hazards Center
in Print

With Dennis S. Mileti as principal investigator, the grant "Assessment of Research and Applications on Natural Hazards" has brought together experts to summarize knowledge in all relevant fields, create a national research agenda and recommend shifts in national policies and perspectives. Two of the resulting five books scheduled for publication are:

Burby, Raymond J. (Ed.) 1998. Cooperating with Nature: Confronting Natural Hazards with Land-use Planning for Sustainable Communities. Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press. This book is based on the thesis that by planning for and managing land use to enhance sustainability, we can reduce our vulnerability to disasters, if not eliminate them.

Kunreuther, Howard, and Richard J. Roth, Sr. (Eds.) 1998. Paying the Price: The Status and Rise of Insurance Against Natural Disasters in the United States. Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press. This book is about the role insurance plays, in combination with other policy tools, in reducing losses from natural disasters and in providing financial protection for those who suffer property damage from disasters.

Political and Economic Change Program

Thomas F. Mayer gave a paper entitled "Class Dynamics and Globalization: Theoretical Explorations" at a conference on Globalization and Its Discontents. The conference was held July 23-24 at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, British Columbia. It was attended by approximately 100 economists, historians, lawyers, political scientists, and sociologists from many different countries. The paper develops five different models of the globalization process and applied Mayer's theory of class dynamics to each of these models. It turns out that each of the five models implies a quite different pattern of class power, and some of these patterns are much more plausible than others. The Globalization and Its Discontents conference was highlighted by lively discussions of the capacity of states to control the effects of globalization and the role of the United States in fostering economic globalization.

Population Processes Program

Fred C. Pampel attended the American Sociological Association meeting on August 20-25 in San Francisco during which he presented the paper "Does the Privatization of Social Security Make Sense for Developing Nations?" (with John B. Williamson). After a review of the three major alternatives to privatization of old age security--informal family support, national provident funds, and social insurance based public pensions--the authors discuss the Chilean full privatization model and the Argentine partial privatization model. Although the Chilean model has performed well over the past 15 years, a favorable period for financial markets, it is less clear what will happen during an extended period of economic stagnation. Until there is an idea of how such schemes perform under adverse financial circumstances, it would make more sense for most countries to reform existing public pension schemes rather than replace them with privatized schemes. The provident fund approach or privatized schemes may still work best in some circumstances, but a number of contextual factors must be taken into consideration when deciding which alternative is best for a specific country.

Population Processes Program
in Print

Rogers, Richard A., Robert A. Hummer and Charles B. Nam. 1998. "Adult mortality differentials associated with cigarette smoking in the USA," Population Research and Policy Review, 17, pp. 285-304. This paper contributes to the literature by extending a demographic framework to an important behavior for mortality research: cigarette smoking. The present work adds to previous analysis by estimating smoking status mortality differentials by underlying and multiple causes of death and by age and sex. The authors find that cigarette smoking is associated with higher mortality for all population categories studied, that the smoking mortality differentials vary across the different smoking status categories and by demographic group, and that the mortality differentials vary according to whether underlying-cause or multiple-cause patterns of death are examined. Moreover, the multiple-cause analysis highlights otherwise obscured smoking mortality relations and points to the importance of respiratory diseases and cancers other than lung cancer for cigarette smoking research.

Problem Behavior Program

Center for the Study and Prevention of Violence

Amanda C. Elliott and David H. Huizinga spent three weeks during July in Bremen, Germany, working with professor Karl Schuman and researcher Beate Ehret on the collaborative joint research project involving the Denver Youth Survey and the Bremen School-to-work Study. The project focuses on the effects of the transition from school to work on delinquency/crime and drug use. While in Bremen, the collaborative project was featured in a cross-national workshop: "Cross-National Analysis of Societal Contexts of Delinquency," through a joint presentation by the four researchers. A related presentation was given by Huizinga at the National Criminal Justice Evaluation Conference in Washington, DC on July 28-29.

On August 21, David H. Huizinga gave a presentation about the influence of gangs on the problem behavior of female and male gang members in an invited special session at the American Sociological Association in San Francisco.

Delbert S. Elliott participated in the annual conference on Criminal Justice Research and Evaluation: Viewing Crime and Justice from a Collaborative Perspective, which was hosted by the National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice, in Alexandria, Virginia, July 26-29. On August 7, Elliott presented at the National Institute of Mental Health/National Institute of Health the results from National Youth Survey and other research on the role of associating with deviant peers in the progression to serious and chronic delinquency, other strong research findings with clear implications for policy and practice, next research and other steps, and described the Blueprints Program. On August 24, Elliott addressed the Colorado State Legislators in Denver regarding school dropout rates and juvenile violence issues. On August 25, Elliott presented "Blueprints for Violence Prevention" to Correctional Programs Forum Members of the Oregon Department of Corrections in Salem, Oregon.

Tonya Aultman-Bettridge, Jane Grady, and Tiffany Shaw were participants at the National Network of Violence Prevention Practitioners (NNVPP) Summit '98, "Preventing Violence & Beyond: Facing New Challenges in a Changing World." Aultman-Bettridge presented "Program Evaluation Planning: What to Measure and How to Measure It," Grady served on the NNVPP Advisory Board, and Shaw hosted a CSPV exhibit. The conference was held in San Diego, California, July 16-18.

On August 20, Delbert Elliott, Jennifer Grotpeter, Miriam Jebe, and Greg Ungar presented a progress report to the Youth Crime Prevention and Intervention (YCPI) Board. The report updated the board on the technical assistance regarding program evaluation that has been provided to the 1997-1998 YCPI grant recipients.

Bits and Bytes from SSDAC

The Computer Retrieval of Information on Scientific Projects (CRISP) is now accessible on the Web. CRISP records dating from 1972 to the present can be accessed at the National Institutes of Health Commons at http://www-commons.dcrt.nih.gov. The searchable CRISP database, which includes information regarding federally funded biomedical research projects conducted at universities, hospitals, and other research institutions, enables users to research scientific concepts, emerging trends and techniques, or identify specific projects and/or investigators. Users may submit e-mail enquiries via the CRISP home page. For more information and assistance, contact: Ms. Dorrette Worrell, phone: 301-435-0656, e-mail: dorrette_worrell@nih.gov.

Profile

Economic Forces and Their Roles in Nation-States

Daniel Drezner received his Ph.D. in political science from Stanford in 1996. He is an Assistant Professor of Political Science and a Faculty Research Associate on the Professional Staff of the Political and Economic Change Program. During the 1996/97 academic year he was a John M. Olin National Security Fellow at Harvard University's Center for International Affairs. He has previously lectured on economics and political science in Donetsk Technical University in the Republic of Ukraine, and also worked as a research consultant for the RAND corporation. His book, The Sanctions Paradox: Economic Statecraft and International Relations, will be published by Cambridge University Press in the forthcoming year. He has published articles in Security Studies, International Studies Quarterly, PS: Political Science and Politics, The National Interest, and The Washington Quarterly. His research programs focus on economic interdependence and economic statecraft, the political economy of globalization, and theories of international organization.

My research interests emanate from the same question: to what extent does economic interdependence alter the behavior of nation-states? I have been attacking this question from three separate research programs.

First, can international actors use economic inducements or economic sanctions to manipulate other actors? This question has occupied much of my time. I have just finished a book on the use of economic statecraft in international relations arguing that economic coercion has a paradoxical effect on international relations. On the one hand, countries will be the most eager and the most likely to sanction nation-states they anticipate frequent conflicts with, i.e., adversaries. The problem is, it is precisely when countries anticipate frequent conflict with each other that sanctions will be the least effective. I have just finished a paper on economic inducements in crisis situations that suggests a similar problem with carrots. There are very few situations when carrots will work when countries would not prefer to sanction instead.

Second, are there global economic forces that constrain the behavior of all nation-states? Much has been made about the forces of "globalization," particularly at the Institute of Behavioral Science, but very few people can put their finger on exactly what globalization is, and how it affects the way states, firms, and individuals interact. How much of globalization is real and how much of it is pure public relations spin? I am particularly interested in the role that states play in fostering economic growth and innovation, and the extent to which the international system affects decisions in this area.

Third, what is the role of international institutions in mediating/enhancing the effects of interdependence? Do institutions constrain or enhance the influence of great powers? With increasing levels of economic interdependence, there is a greater demand for international organizations to regulate economic, security, and environmental affairs. In this century, however, the track record of international organizations has not been great. What determines the robustness of international organizations? How do they manage international affairs? How are domestic institutions like legislatures and courts reacting to the loss of sovereignty? In the hopes of addressing the last question, I am planning to hold a conference on the interaction between domestic and international institutions, tentatively scheduled for June 1999 in Boulder.

Because of the interdisciplinary nature of my work, I am looking forward to my time at IBS. I am sure that, by interacting with the other IBS members, I could pile up enough new research questions to last for several years.

Funding Opportunities

The School of Social Science at the Institute for Advanced Study is offering postdoctoral positions. The Institute takes as its mission the analysis of societies and social change through the research and publications of its permanent members (faculty) and visiting members. To this end, it casts a wide net over the traditional fields of anthropology, politics, economics, and sociology, and also embraces history, philosophy, law, and literary studies. While diverse in its annual membership, it also offers a yearly concentration on a defined theme in order to attract interested scholars and encourage useful discourse concerning such topics. It tends toward an interpretive and humanistic approach to its component disciplines, while not dismissing the contributions and challenges of more quantitative methods. Deadline is November 15. For more information: Institute for Advanced Study, Olden Lane, Princeton, NJ 08540, Web: http://www2.admin.ias.edu/ss/, e-mail: dlk@ias.edu; phone: 609-734-8250.

Research Proposals Funded

Political and Economic Change Program

J.V. O'Loughlin
Globalization and democratization
NSF, 09/01/95 - 08/31/99, renew, $112,500

Research Proposals Submitted

Problem Behavior Program

F.W. Dunford
Develop a topology of spouse abusers using existing data from the San Diego Navy experiment
Navy, 09/01/98 - 12/31/98, new, $24,085

K.R. Williams
Consortium for healthy and safe schools
UC Riverside, 12/01/98 - 11/30/99, new, $374,589

Population Processes Program

R.G. Rogers
Collaborative research: socioeconomic status, family context, and adult mortality
NSF, 04/01/99 - 03/31/01, new, $73,350

J.O. Huff
Understanding changes in patterns of residential mixing between Mexican and Anglos in SW cities
NSF, 01/01/99 - 12/31/99, new, $69,047

Political and Economic Change Program

J.V. O'Loughlin and J.E. Bell
Can democracy be sustained? Civic engagement, social capital, and the future of democratic governance in Moscow
NSF, 02/01/99 - 07/31/01, new, $295,363

Upcoming Colloquia

There is an online listing of upcoming and recent colloquia.

Institute of Behavioral Science

Richard Jessor, Institute Director

1998 IBS Newsletter

Sugandha Brooks and Leigh Kirkland, Newsletter Editors

Institute of Behavioral Science
University of Colorado at Boulder
Boulder, CO 80309-0483

(303) 492-8147

IBS@Colorado.EDU