IBS Newsletter
April 1977
Institute of Behavioral Science
University of Colorado
Program Activities
Political and Economic Change
James Scarritt presented a paper at the International Studies Association
in Toronto on March 19-22. The paper, co-authored with Susan McMillan of
Penn State and Shaheen Mozaffar of Bridgewater State, is entitled "Democratization
and the Institutional Accommodation of Ethnic Protest and Rebellion: Africa
in Comparative Perspective." In a previous analysis based on the Minorities
at Risk (MAR) Phase I and Polity II data sets, nonviolent protest and rebellion
by ethnic minorities in Africa in the 1980s were found to be best explained
by a combination of previous political action of the same type and specific
polity characteristics: democracy or political competitiveness in the immediate
post-independence period. This paper first attempts to replicate that analysis
using updated versions of the data sets on which it was based--MAR Phase
III and Polity III. The authors explain why only a limited replication
is possible for the 1980s, and only a much more limited replication is
possible for the 1990s, because of extensive changes in the MAR data. The
authors are able to replicate the central hypothesis of their previous
analysis (stated above) for the 1980s, however, they go on to explore the
effects of past patterns of nonviolent protest and rebellion on recent
democratic transitions and the choice of electoral formulas in democratic
elections held at the time of or subsequent to these transitions.
Environment and Behavior Program
Robert Davis gave a guest lecture at the Economics Institute on
the topic of "Sustainable Economic Development." He stressed the importance
of trade in wildlife, including ecotourism, the fact that many people in
the developing world depend importantly on wild plants and animals for
subsistence and cash income. The most important point was that sustainable
economic development of wildlife depends upon government's ability to create
secure property rights in wildlife.
Gilbert F. White joined in a meeting in Washington, DC on February
27 called by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to review the problems
faced by an inter-agency task force in recommending action to enhance the
natural and beneficial uses of floodplains.
Anthony Bebbington spent ten days during March in Ecuador for
a research project entitled "Social Capital Formation in the Andes."
Chuck Howe spent a week advising the Government of the State
of Mendoza, Argentina, on strategies for dealing with major water problems.
The region, just east of the Andes, is extremely dry with very limited
surface water and groundwater supplies. Severe financial constraints require
consideration of water pricing and water markets to increase water use
efficiency.
Natural Hazards Center News
Mary Fran Myers was part of the U.S. delegation attending
the North American Hazards Map Working Group meeting in Guadalajara, Jalisco
February 24 and 25. The meeting was sponsored by CENAPRED: the Centro Nacional
de Prevencion de Desastres. The working group consists of hazards experts
from Canada, the U.S., and Mexico who are preparing an educational map
of North America depicting hazards and hazard mitigation programs. Myers
is the sub-group leader on the wildfire portion of the map. The working
group hopes that the map will ultimately be published by National Geographic.
While in Mexico, Myers also met with colleagues at the University of Colima's
Volcano Observatory to share information and ideas on the Observatory's
"International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Volcano Project"--one
of ten such projects around the world.
On March 19, Myers participated in a one-day invitational workshop
on Land Use Planning and Natural Hazard Mitigation sponsored by the Insurance
Institute for Property Loss Reduction in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The
meeting marked the first steps of the property casualty insurance industry
to take a meaningful role in land use planning on a national basis.
Natural Hazards in Print
Mileti, Dennis S. and JoAnne DeRouen Darlington. 1997. "The Role
of Searching in Shaping Reactions to Earthquake Risk Information." Social
Problems, 44(1) pp. 89-103. This article assesses public response to
an earthquake prediction for the San Francisco Bay Area on a sample of
households from eight Bay Area counties. Descriptive findings suggest that
an earthquake culture exists in the study population. The authors tested
criticisms of interactionist theory--its failure to take motives for behavior
and social position into account--using multiple regression analysis. The
authors conclude that motives and social position matter little in determining
social action and that more work is needed to determine how variations
in new information create ambiguity which differentially fosters searching,
the formation of alternative definitions, and subsequent action.
Population Program
The Population Program sponsored a workshop entitled "Demographic Change
in the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe" on March 30-April 1. This
workshop inaugurated the Project for the Study of Post-Soviet Demographic
Change. The project is envisioned as a response to the extraordinary changes
which have emerged with the gradual collapse of the socialist world. These
changes border on the catastrophic, and it is difficult to imagine economic
recovery of the region without its coming to grips with the implied social
problems underlying plummeting birth rates and soaring mortality and divorce
rates. This is also a time of unprecedented information on the former Soviet
Union. Indeed, the high quality of much of the data provides a virtually
unique glimpse at social and economic change at the household level during
a period of great upheaval. The workshop participants addressed these topics
in the course of presenting papers, some of which will be submitted for
possible publication in a special issue of World Development. For
further details, contact the Symposium Coordinator: Andrei Rogers
(Director, Population Program, IBS).
Population Program in Print
Joan O'Connell, "The Relationship Between Health Expenditures and
the Age Structure of the Population in OECD Countries," Health Economics,
1996. Vol. 5, pp. 573-578. The purpose of this study is to analyze national
health expenditures of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) countries relative to their age structures. Using econometric techniques
designed to analyze cross-sectional time series data, the ageing of the
population was found to affect health spending in several countries while
having no effect in others. In addition, the effect of income on health
spending was lower than that generally reported in the literature. These
findings suggest that unobserved country-specific factors play a major
role in determining the amount of resources allocated to health services
in a country. Such factors also determine if the ageing of the population
is associated with increased health spending.
Problem Behavior
Richard Jessor delivered the Seventh Annual Anathan Foundation Lecture
at the Department of Psychiatry, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
on Friday, March 14. The title of the lecture was "Adolescent Problem Behavior
in Developmental Perspective." In addition to the lecture, Jessor had meetings
throughout the day with clinical and research faculty and with psychiatry
residents to discuss a variety of research issues bearing on normal adolescent
development.
Problem Behavior in Print
Jessor, Richard, Mark S. Turbin, and Frances M. Costa. "Predicting
Developmental Change in Risky Driving: The Transition to Young Adulthood,"
Applied Developmental Science, 1997, Vol. 1(1), pp. 4-16. Data from
a three-wave, statewide mail survey of young adult drivers (1,025 men,
634 women) in Colorado were used to examine correlates and antecedents
of risky driving, controlling for both drink driving and drug-related driving.
The strongest predictor of risky driving, cross-sectionally, was behavioral
conventionality, followed by psychosocial conventionality and social role
status. Developmental decline in risky driving, from age 18 to 25, was
related to entry into conventional adult social roles and to increases
in psychosocial and behavioral conventionality. The strongest predictor
of change in risky driving over time was change in behavioral conventionality.
Risky driving by young adults appears to be part of a larger syndrome of
problem behavior involvement.
Center for the Study and Prevention of Violence
The Center for the Study and Prevention of Violence (CSPV) conducted a
telephone survey from March 13-31 which was based on a random sample of
800 adults aged 18 and older in Boulder County. The survey asks questions
about personal experiences with violence, what people do to protect themselves
from being victims, their opinions about how society should deal with violent
offenders, and their awareness of services available in the county for
victims of violence. Summary information from the survey will be shared
with Boulder County officials and service agencies to help them improve
their violence prevention programs and services to victims.
Delbert Elliott made a presentation on juvenile sexual
offenders at the annual conference for the Western Society of Criminology
in Honolulu, February 27. On Monday, March 10, Elliott conducted a conference
at the CSPV for the Blueprints grant. Sharon Mihalic and Landa
Heys assisted with the conference that focused on the development of
a blueprint for the Multisystemic Family Therapy program. Graduate Research
Assistants, Gregory Ungar and Jennifer Grotpeter provided
support for the conference. The attendees included Scott Henggler, Ph.D.,
program designer, and program replicators from around the country.
Jane Grady attended a meeting of the Violence Prevention
Advisory Committee at the Colorado Department of Public Health in Denver.
The multi-disciplinary group meets monthly to provide opportunities for
education and debate regarding violence and to promote strategies for prevention.
Grady was also invited to participate as an advisor to the Data Resource
Office for Metro Denver Project: Pulling America's Communities Together
(PACT). The advisory committee meets monthly to address policy development,
data access issues, and the effectiveness of the neighborhood maps which
have been developed to depict risk/resource data.
Sharon Mihalic presented a paper on "A Social Learning Theory
Model of Marital Violence" at the annual conference for the Western Society
of Criminology in Honolulu, February 28. The paper discusses a social learning
theory model of minor and severe marital violence offending and victimization
among males and females was tested. Results support social learning as
an important perspective in marital violence. However, males and females
are impacted differently by their experiences with violence in childhood
and adolescence. Prior experiences with violence have a more dramatic impact
in the lives of females than males, both during adolescence and adulthood.
Mihalic, Sharon and Delbert Elliott. "A Social Learning Theory Model of
Marital Violence." Journal of Family Violence, 1997. 12(1).
Border Studies for a Changing World
Professor Vladimir Kolossov came to Boulder on a Fulbright
scholarship to work with John O'Loughlin on the project "The Transition
to Democracy in Ukraine (Identities, Borders, and State-Building)"--on
the theory of border studies, the Russian-Ukrainian borderland and relations.
He is the head of the Center of Geopolitical Studies at the Institute of
Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow and currently the
chair of the International Geographical Union Commission on the World Political
Map.
When we started the work on our project, we discovered that, though
borders traditionally were an object of geographical studies, there is,
surprisingly, no modern theory satisfactorily explaining their nature.
However, such a theory is extremely necessary for solving acute political
problems, particularly in post-Soviet space.
I believe that the CIS, Commonwealth of Independent States, still can
avoid an increase in the barrier functions of their new borders and instead
can profit from the historical opportunity to keep them transparent and
develop transboundary cooperation, taking into account the European and
the North-American experience. Russia's new 13,000 kilometer long land
borders do not assume the full set of functions of a "normal" state. The
outer borders of the former USSR continue to discharge a range of functions
common to several CIS countries. Minimal expenses needed to establish a
system of continuous protection of Russia's new borders are estimated to
be $7 billion. Since no new Russian boundary is registered according to
international law, huge investments are also necessary to carry on the
work on their delimitation, mapping, and demarcation in sito. Russia
now simply can't afford such expenses. The only solution is cooperation
with the CIS countries in attempting to establish a system of common protection
of external Community frontiers and in trying to create a custom and an
economic union.
Boundary is the outwardly oriented zone of contact and, at the same
time, the inwardly oriented line of separation (a manifestation of social
and national integration, a necessary component of sovereignty, and a palpable
mark of jurisdiction). Therefore, we have to consider boundary as a product
of state-building, statecraft, and construction of national identities.
Boundary is also a controversial result of political, cultural, and economic
interactions at different levels. The upper level consists of macroregions
(West - East, NATO, and the EU countries and/or the countries eligible
for membership in these organizations, and other countries, etc.), or "civilisational"
regions, in the terms of S. Huntington. The lowest level is the level of
the everyday experience, in the terms of P. Taylor (the level of localities).
Last September we went with John O'Loughlin to a field study of the Russian-Ukrainian
borderland and interviewed, in particular, the administration heads of
two small townships separated only by a railway but now belonging to different
states. They have a common railway station, communications, public services,
and even a common cemetery. But now local parts of both Russian and Ukrainian
industrial plants came to be separated by customs and border guards. The
people, who have for a long time worked on the other side of the border,
have to be officially treated as "foreigners," receive salaries in a foreign
currency, and are subject to two different legislations at home and at
work. We saw how difficult it is for the locals to perceive this situation;
they blame central authorities for worrying only about the so-called "national
interests" and ignoring their needs.
I believe that the ideal of a nation-state with strictly defined, symbolized,
and sacred borders went out of date. We have to get rid of the demons of
nationalism. Borderlands have to be zones of contact and cooperation. And
understanding the complicated nature of boundaries--a good
theory--can really contribute to it.
Funding Opportunities
The National Institutes of Health/Fogarty International Center administer
fellowship programs for U.S. scientists to conduct research in the following
foreign countries: Finland, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Norway, Sweden,
and Taiwan. The applicant must identify a sponsor in the host country either
through direct correspondence, or through correspondence on the applicant's
behalf between a senior scientist in the United States and a colleague
in the host country. Applicants must be citizens or permanent residents
of the United States; hold a doctorate in one of the clinical, behavioral,
or biomedical sciences; and have recent professional experience appropriate
to the proposed study. Requirements for each fellowship depend on particular
program policies. Awards generally cover the payment of a stipend and round-trip
airfare for fellows. Support for health and accident insurance, living
allowances, family travel expenses, and language training varies and depends
on the specific fellowship that is sought. Duration of support ranges from
three to twenty-four months. The next deadline for receipt of applications
is April 5, 1997. Other annual deadlines are August 5 and
December 5. For further information write: Division of International Training
and Research, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health,
Building 31, Room B2C39, 31 Center Drive, MSC 2220, Bethesda, MD 20892-2220.
PHONE: 301-496-1653. FAX: 301-402-0779. EMAIL: M3p@cu.nih.gov
Research Proposals Funded
Problem Behavior Program
Kirland R. Williams and Delbert S. Elliott
Lethal and non-lethal adolescent violence
Columbia School of PH, NIH 09/01/96 - 08/31/97 $59,294 new
Delbert S. Elliott
"Blueprints" for violence prevention and reduction programs
State of Colorado 10/01/96 - 06/30/97 $50,000 new
Delbert S. Elliott
"Blueprints" for violence prevention and reduction programs
State of Colorado 10/01/96 - 09/30/97 $25,000 new
Political and Economic Change Program
John V. O'Loughlin
REU supplement to the transition to democracy in Ukraine: state building,
ethnic mobilization and adjustments to a market economy
NSF 02/01/97 - 07/31/97 $5,000 new
Environment and Behavior Program
Dennis S. Mileti
A clearinghouse of natural hazards research and applications
NSF 02/01/97 - 08/31/97 $5,000 supp
Research Proposals Submitted
Problem Behavior Program
Delbert S. Elliott
Comprehensive evaluation plan
State of Colorado 12/15/97 - 05/14/97 $411,027 supp
Kirk R. Williams
Colorado domestic violence risk reduction
State of Colorado 05/15/97 - 08/14/98 $190,192 new
Upcoming Colloquia
There is an online
listing of upcoming and recent colloquia.
April 1977 IBS Newsletter
Sugandha Brooks and Christine Weeber, Newsletter Editors
Institute of Behavioral Science
Richard Jessor, Director
- Research Program on Environment and Behavior,
- Charles W. Howe, Director
- Research Program on Political and Economic Change
- Edward S. Greenberg, Director
- Research Program on Population Processes
- Research Program on Problem Behavior
- Richard Jessor, Director
- Delbert S. Elliott, Associate Director
- Social Science Data Analysis Center,
- James L. (Zeke) Little, Director
Institute of Behavioral Science
University of Colorado at Boulder
Boulder, CO 80309-0483
(303) 492-8147
IBS@Colorado.EDU