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During the past years Professor Rogers has been conducting research in three principal areas: immigration and the regional geography of the foreign-born population in the United States, elderly migration and settlement patterns, and the indirect estimation of migration. Imagine the geography of the foreign-born population in the United States at the middle of this century, and imagine its changes since then. How did the demographic processes of immigration, emigration, internal migration, and mortality act to shape the changing geography? How did the fertility patterns of foreign-borns and native-borns combine with the migration and mortality patterns of the latter to shape the geography of the native-born population and the consequent foreign-born shares of regional populations? How have the internal migration patterns of the foreign-borns differed from those of the native-born population? How have the internal migration patterns of the elderly differed from those of the non-elderly populations? Assisted by several graduate and undergraduate students, Professor Rogers has been seeking answers to such questions by modeling the spatial population dynamics of sub-populations in the United States during the past half-century.
Although the principal focus of the multi-year studies of the foreign-born and elderly populations have been their interregional migration and spatial redistribution in the United States, the absence of adequate data on territorial mobility--for example, on emigration--necessitated some of the estimates of some migration streams to be made indirectly. In the process new methodological approaches had to be explored and tested for the first time, drawing on the emerging literature on the statistical analysis of data with missing values. Some of the results were presented at a workshop on the indirect estimation of migration that was convened in Estes Park in early 1999, leading to the publication of a special issue of Mathematical Population Studies edited by Professor Rogers and devoted to this topic. This was followed by a short course on indirect estimation offered by Professor Frans Willekens of the University of Groningen in The Netherlands in July (PowerPoint presentations to accompany the course on "Loglinear Modeling and Missing Data" are available for download), and the receipt of two grants from the National Science Foundation to support current collaborative work on this topic. Several articles published in 2001-2007 describe some of the findings of this research. A National Institutes of Health (NIH) funded conference on this topic was convened in September of 2004; the papers are available for downloading from website: www.colorado.edu/ibs/POP/ccemconf. A research grant from NIH provided the funding for continuing this work. A book, "The Indirect Estimation of Migration", was published in 2010 (see below).
Immigration and the Regional Demographics of the Elderly Population in the United States. JOURNAL OF GERONTOLOGY: SOCIAL SCIENCES, 56B(1):S44-S55, 2001 (with J. Raymer).
Modeling Interregional Migration Flows: Continuity and Change. MATHEMATICAL POPULATION STUDIES, 9:231-263, 2001 (with F. Willekens and J. Raymer).
Describing Migration Spatial Structure. PAPERS IN REGIONAL SCIENCE, 81:29-48, 2002 (with F. Willekens, J. Little, and J. Raymer).
Capturing the Age and Spatial Structures of Migration. ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING A, 34:341-359, 2002 (with F. Willekens and J. Raymer).
Imposing Age and Spatial Structures on Inadequate Migration Flow Data Sets. PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER, 55(1):57-70, 2003 (with F. Willekens and J. Raymer).
Reconciling and Translating Migration Data Collected Over Time Intervals of Differing Widths. ANNALS OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, 37:581-601, 2003 (with J. Raymer and K.B. Newbold).
Estimating Migration Flows from Birthplace-specific Population Stocks of Infants. GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS, 36(1), 38-53, 2004 (with L. Jordan).
Model Migration Schedules: Three Alternative Linear Parameter Estimation Methods. MATHEMATICAL POPULATION STUDIES, 12:17-38, 2005 (with L.J. Castro and M. Lea).
Origin Dependence, Secondary Migration, and the Indirect Estimation of Migration Flows from Population Stocks. JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH, 22(1):1-19, 2005 (with J. Raymer).
Estimating Directional Migration Flows from Age-Specific Net Migration Data. REVIEW OF URBAN AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, 17(3):177-196, 2005 (with J. Liu).
Inferring Migration Flows from the Migration Propensities of Infants: Mexico and Indonesia. THE ANNALS OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, 41:443-465, 2007 (with B. Jones, V. Partida, S. Muhidin).
Using Age and Spatial Flow Structures in the Indirect Estimation of Migration Streams. DEMOGRAPHY, 44(2):199-223, 2007 (with J. Raymer).
What Can the Age Composition of a Population Tell Us About the Age Composition of Its Out-Migrants? POPULATION, SPACE AND PLACE, 13(1):23-39, 2007 (with J. S. Little).
Applying Model Migration Schedules to Represent Age-Specific Migration Flows. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN EUROPE: DATA, MODELS AND ESTIMATES, Ch. 8 (pages 17-192), eds. J. Raymer and F.J. Willekens (Chichester: Wiley), 2008 (with J. Raymer).
Demographic Modeling of the Geography of Migration and Population: A Multiregional Perspective. GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS, 40:276-296, 2008.
Inferring Directional Migration Propensities from the Migration Propensities of Infants in the United States. MATHEMATICAL POPULATION STUDIES, 15:182-211, 2008 (with B. Jones).
THE INDIRECT ESTIMATION OF MIGRATION: METHODS FOR DEALING WITH IRREGULAR, INADEQUATE, AND MISSING DATA, (Dordrecht: Springer), 2010 (with J. Little and J. Raymer).
Does Specification Matter? Experiments with Simple Multiregional Probabilistic Population Projections. ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING A, XL (11):2664-2686, 2012 (with J. Raymer and G.J. Abel).