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Volume XXXI • Number 5 May 2007 | Past Issues


Short Articles and Announcements

ASFPM Goes to College Hurricane Season Predictions

ASFPM Goes to College

The Association of State Floodplain Managers (ASFPM) is creating an “Academic Discussion Group” to promote the academic preparation of future floodplain managers. The discussion group would be composed of ASFPM members who presently teach floodplain management courses at the university level, as well as other individuals who teach complementary university-level courses and/or would like to promote course offerings at that level.

The group, as envisioned, would provide opportunities for participants to exchange course syllabi, discuss course content, share research needs, discuss policy and management approaches, and provide general academic support to one another and to the academic community at large. Membership would not be restricted to ASFPM members. In fact, the organizers believe the group will be enriched if other interested individuals are included.

The association is currently trying to identify those interested in participating or assisting in the work of this discussion group, as well as those who are already teaching floodplain management-related courses at the college or university level.

Anyone who can assist in this endeavor should visit the ASFPM Web site at and click on “Floodplain Academic Discussion Group” to provide suggestions. For more information, contact George Riedel, Deputy Executive Director, ASFPM, (608) 274-0123,

Hurricane Season Predictions

One of the nation’s top hurricane research teams has predicted a “very active” 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. The team, led by William Gray and based at Colorado State University (CSU), now anticipates that 17 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and November 30. Nine of those storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and five of those nine are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

“Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 74%, compared with the last-century average of 52%,” said Phil Klotzbach of the CSU hurricane forecast team.

The team’s predictions include the following:

  • A 74% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2007
  • A 50% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. east coast, including the Florida Peninsula
  • A 49% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas

Although the 2006 season witnessed a total of five hurricanes and two major hurricanes, none of those made landfall along the U.S. coastline. The 2005 season, considered unusual by the CSU forecast team, witnessed 27 named storms, 15 hurricanes and 7 intense hurricanes. Gray’s team said a late, unexpected El Niño contributed to the calmer hurricane season in 2006.

The team will issue updates of its 2007 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on May 31, August 3, September 4, and October 2. The entire report is available at

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