According to the report HAZUS 99: Average Annual Earthquake Losses for the United States (2000, 40 pp., free), 84% of the annual earthquake losses in the nation are expected to occur in California, Oregon, and Washington, with California alone accounting for $3.3 billion of the estimated total annual loss of $4.4 billion.
HAZUS (Hazards U.S.) is the Federal Emergency Man-agement Agency's (FEMA's) loss estimation methodology, created in cooperation with the National Institute of Building Sciences and used to develop this new loss model. It produces regional profiles and estimates of earthquake loss by geographic area as well as evaluates characteristics of the built environment and categories of loss. Incorporating probabilistic seismic hazard data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and other data regarding geological conditions, economic factors, and location and size of potential earthquakes, HAZUS can calculate potential damage in an area as small as a census tract.
The earthquake loss estimates in HAZUS 99 are annualized to factor in historic patterns of frequent smaller earthquakes with infrequent, larger events. The $4.4 billion estimate is considered extremely conservative, according to the study's authors, and only includes capital losses due to lost or damaged buildings, contents, or inventories, and income losses. It does not cover damage and losses to critical facilities, transportation and utility lifelines, or indirect economic losses.
The study concludes that probable annual earthquake losses in the U.S. are almost equal to the losses experienced
from floods and hurricanes. Flood losses totaled $52 billion annually from 1989 to 1998, according to the National Weather Service. For the same period, the National Climatic Data Center estimates the U.S. lost $5.4 billion annually due to hurricanes.
HAZUS 99 is free. Copies can be obtained by calling FEMA Publications, (800) 480-2520, or by downloading the document from the FEMA Web: http://www.fema.gov/pdf/FEMA366.pdf.
When a disaster occurs, FEMA's Disaster Relief Fund is the major source of federal disaster recovery assistance for state and local governments. The fund receives an annual appropriation of up to $320 million, and emergency supplemental appropriations are often enacted in response to large disasters. Over the last 10 years, the fund received $34 billion in regular appropriations and about $24 billion in emergency supplemental appropriations. Because appropriations made to the fund are available until they are spent, the fund usually carries balances that are obligated to relief and recovery projects.
FEMA is required to report monthly to both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees on the fund's status, including funds available, obligations to date, remaining costs from past disasters, and anticipated costs of disasters that might occur in the remaining months of the fiscal year. In early 1999, FEMA projected a carryover of $700 million at the end of fiscal year 1999. However, a month later, FEMA revised its monthly report to indicate a potential shortfall before the end of that fiscal year. As a result, a Senate subcommittee requested an evaluation by the General Accounting Office (GAO) of how FEMA determines funding requirements for the fund.
The results of that study can be found in Disaster Relief Fund: FEMA's Estimates of Funding Requirements Can Be Improved (GAO/RCED-00-182, 2000, 24 pp., free). The report reviews the accuracy and timeliness of FEMA's estimates of remaining costs for past disasters, the reasonableness of FEMA's approach to estimating the timing and cost of future disasters, and the impact of FEMA projects on the rate of obligating disaster relief funds. The GAO found significant differences between FEMA headquarters and its regional offices regarding the amount of obligated funds. At the same time, data used for the report were four to six weeks old. The GAO acknowledges, however, that FEMA has developed a new automated system to estimate disaster costs on a real-time basis. The report includes recommendations for improving estimates of the costs of future disasters and expediting the closeout of funding for past disasters.
Copies of the report can be obtained from the General Accounting Office, P.O. Box 37050, Washington, DC 20013; (202) 512-6000; fax: (202) 512-6061; e-mail: info@www.gao.gov; WWW: http://www.gao.gov.
In the last issue of the Observer, we mentioned that Congress had passed the Cerro Grande Fire Assistance Act (Public Law 106-246) that, among other things, compensates victims of the Los Alamos fire, started by employees of the National Park Service (see the Observer, Vol. XXV, No. 1, p. 11). On August 28, 2000, FEMA issued an interim final rule that outlines procedures applicants should follow to obtain assistance for injuries and property damage resulting from the fire.
The rule, published in the Federal Register (Vol. 65, No. 167, pp. 52260-52279), provides an overview of the claims process; explains the procedure for filing a claim; describes compensation available under the act; explains how claims are to be documented and evaluated; and describes appeal rights, arbitration, and judicial review procedures.
The regulations can be found in any federal repository library or on-line from both the U.S. Government Printing Office: http://www.access.gpo.gov or FEMA: http://www.fema.gov/CerroGrande.
According to FEMA's Inspector General (IG), who recently examined the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to determine how many structures in floodplains actually had federally mandated flood insurance, as many as 38% are not covered. (However, the Federal Insurance Administration [FIA], the agency that oversees the NFIP, believes the noncompliance rate is closer to 60%.) The IG's review can be found in Opportunities to Enhance Compliance with Homeowner Flood Insurance Purchase Requirements (Report No. I-02-00, 2000, 46 pp., free).
The NFIP was enacted by Congress in 1968 to provide flood insurance to property owners in communities that agree to adopt and enforce floodplain management ordinances that reduce flood risk. To strengthen that program, the Flood Disaster Protection Act of 1973 mandated that federally regulated lenders could not make loans on floodplain properties without requiring flood insurance.
The Inspector General recommends that, in order to enhance compliance, the FIA should:
The FIA disagrees with the findings of the IG, and their comments on the IG's conclusions can be found in the appendix. To obtain a copy of this report, call the Office of the Inspector General, FEMA: (202) 646-4166.
FEMA wants to help colleges and universities limit future property and economic damage from natural disasters. Using the same approach as FEMA's Project Impact, the Disaster Resistant Universities initiative provides about $100,000, to be matched by the recipient, to assess university vulnerabilities to natural hazards and to implement strategies to limit damage before disasters occur. Five campuses have been selected as initial participants: Tulane University, the University of Alaska-Fairbanks, the University of Miami, the University of Washington-Seattle, and the University of North Carolina-Wilmington.
The project began with a University of California- Berkeley study of the economic consequences of a disaster on that university and its surrounding community and state. Concluding that such a disaster would have severe economic consequences, UC-Berkeley subsequently developed a plan to limit future disaster losses and guidelines for other universities to use (see the Observer, Vol. XXIV, No. 1, p. 1; Vol. XXIV, No. 6, p. 11, Vol. XXV, No. 1, p. 27).
The Disaster Resistant Universities initiative will enable these new participants to identify risks and undertake preventive actions at the local level, establish public-private partnerships, and promote long-term efforts and investments in risk reduction. For more information, contact FEMA, Mitigation Directorate, Project Impact, 500 C Street, S.W., Washington, DC. 20472; WWW: http://www.fema.gov/nwz00/nwz00_56.htm.
Following a scandal that forced California Insurance Commissioner Charles Quackenbush to resign under threat of impeachment, Governor Gray Davis signed a bill that allows some victims of the 1994 Northridge earthquake another year to file claims with their insurance companies. The quake was the most expensive disaster in California history and one of the most costly in U.S. history, with insured losses of over $12 billion. The governor also signed three other bills aimed at correcting problems in the state insurance department.
The California legislature conducted bipartisan hearings in both the state senate and assembly after it was discovered that Quakenbush allowed six insurance companies to avoid billions of dollars in fines by donating $12.5 million to a fund he created. Although the fund was set up to help quake victims and to study damage from earthquakes, none of the money was used for those purposes. Rather, about $6 million funded public service television ads featuring the commissioner and was donated to groups with little or no connection to earthquakes. The hearings also uncovered evidence that insurance companies paid policyholders less than they were entitled following the Northridge quake and failed to inform their customers of all the benefits to which they were entitled.
Specifically,
The complete text of these bills, along with their legislative history, can be found on the California Senate Web site: http://www.sen.ca.gov.
The United States is at serious risk of severe damage and loss of life due to hurricanes, according to the Report of the Weather Channel Forum: Policy Issues in Hurricane Preparedness and Response (2000, 35 pp., free). This report, the result of a workshop hosted by the Weather Channel and the American Meteorological Society (AMS), presents findings and recommendations that the authors believe could greatly improve the nation's ability to cope with the inevitable landfall of a major hurricane. Participants included representatives from hurricane forecast organizations, the weather media, emergency managers, political and corporate leaders, socioeconomic weather impact analysts, and academics.
Participants concluded that current hurricane preparedness and response rely primarily on weather prediction and consequent evacuation; population and economic growth in hurricane-prone areas are both increasing rapidly; evacuation times now exceed the lead-time of high confidence warnings; and many people remain in areas of risk due to overloaded roads and shelters. Overall, they concluded, hurricane preparedness and response in the U.S. deserve a thorough re-examination.
Principal recommendations include:
The complete report is available on the AMS Web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS.
Below are some recent disaster Internet resources the Hazards Center staff has encountered. For a list of some of the better sites dealing with hazards and disasters, see http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/sites/sites.html.
http://www.firstgov.gov
This new Web site--touted as the entry point for all federal government Web-based information--is now open for
business. A search on "hazards" returns 130,000 entries, rated according to relevance.
http://www.fema.gov
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Web site has been remodeled. With more than 30,000 pages now
available from the site, a primary goal of the new design is to make it easier for visitors to quickly find the information they
need. New features include immediate search engine access, mouse-over menus, and a cleaner, tighter layout. With this
upgrade, a new page--http://www.fema.gov/emanagers--has been launched to provide emergency managers with quick
access to information of professional interest. FEMA is interested in comments and suggestions about the new design,
particularly comments from the emergency management community about the new "Emanagers" page. Comments can be
e-mailed to eipa@fema.gov.
http://www.agctr.lsu.edu/eden
Following the Great Mississippi Floods of 1993, several state cooperative extension services (CESs) were inundated with
requests for information on disaster response and recovery, but found themselves ill-prepared to provide it. Subsequently,
the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued a grant to 12 north-central CESs to explore ways to better prepare for such
events. Seven years later the result is a 30-state network of CESs--the Extension Disaster Education Network
(EDEN)--that is working to develop or enhance educational resources on disasters and to educate and train CES staff. The
EDEN Web site provides extensive information about the network and many of the disaster preparedness, response,
recovery, and mitigation resources the network has identified or prepared. EDEN maintains a shared database of disaster-related resources available from member states and direct links to extension service on-line disaster information. The site
also provides a directory of state EDEN representatives with complete contact information.
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/pas/disaster/assistance1.htm
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Farm Service Agency Natural Disaster Assistance Web page furnishes information
for farmers who have sustained damage due to natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods. The Emergency
Conservation, Emergency Loan Assistance, Emergency Haying and Grazing Assistance, and the Noninsured Crop Disaster
Assistance programs all provide aid to farmers to rehabilitate eligible farmland damaged by natural disasters. The site
provides information regarding the assistance for which farmers and ranchers may be eligible, as well as details on how to
apply.
http://www.epa.gov/region03/greenkit/q5_disas.htm
The Environmental Protection Agency's Region III Green Communities Web page includes a "Green Communities
Assistance Kit" designed as a comprehensive reference guide for identifying and resolving needs, interests, and problems
of urban, suburban, and rural communities. Included is a "Tools for Natural Disasters" page offering a lengthy list of
Internet resources divided into Policy and Planning Tools, Regulatory Tools, Technical Tools, and Financial Tools. This
Web resource covers everything from hurricane preparedness training to disaster recovery programs.
http://www.nationalatlas.gov
In 1970, the U.S. Geological Survey published its first National Atlas and in 1997 began compiling an even more extensive
digital database that is now available at no cost from the Web. The site enables a viewer to zoom in and out and download
any of dozens of different informational layers. A user can choose a geographical focus and then, if interested in hazards,
download information on active volcanoes, West Nile virus outbreaks, high-hazard dams, significant and historic
earthquakes, or zebra mussel locations. (If, on the other hand, you're interested in Lepidoptera, you could download
information about butterfly or moth distribution . . .)
http://www.cred.be
The Web site for the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the Catholic University of Louvain,
Belgium, has recently moved to this new URL. CRED maintains one of the more extensive databases on disasters on the
Web. This site not only provides access to that database but also offers news and information about the center, including
details about projects, courses, personnel, research, and more.
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/CAT/index.html
The Natural Catastrophes and Developing Countries (CAT) Project at the International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA) in Austria was created in 1999 as part of a research partnership with the World Bank's Disaster
Management Facility (see the Observer, Vol. XXIII, No. 4, p. 5; and Vol. XXIV, No. 4, p. 3) and the Swiss Reinsurance
Company. The project has developed a modeling technique to integrate direct estimated costs of natural disasters into
macroeconomic planning models for developing countries. The modeling will provide a base to help interested parties
evaluate tools for financing the cost of postdisaster reconstruction. The CAT team will develop a series of four case studies
of the impacts of natural catastrophes on the economies of Argentina, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Mozambique. The
long-term objective is to create a planning tool that can help developing countries evaluate options to prevent, mitigate, or
transfer the costs of natural catastrophes. This CAT Web site provides descriptions of research and other activities, a list of
publications and a suggested bibliography, links to related sites, and information about the research team. Additional
information is available from the Natural Catastrophes and Developing Countries Project, IIASA, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361
Laxenburg, Austria; tel: (+43) 2 236 8070; fax: (+43) 2 236 71313.
http://www.oas.org/en/cdmp
The Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project, sponsored by the U.S. Agency for International Development and undertaken
by the Organization of American States, came to a close at the end of 1999. However the project's Web site remains a good
source of guidelines and publications on disaster management in the region. In particular, it offers a wide array of
publications on its "Papers and Publications" page: http://www.oas.org/en/cdmp/publist.htm.
http://www.floods.org
The Web site of the Association of State Floodplain Managers (ASFPM) now offers several new documents, including a
Study of the Economic Effects of Charging Actuarially Based Premium Rates for Pre-FIRM [Flood Insurance Rate
Map] Structures. The study found that if the flood insurance subsidy were eliminated among the many pre-FIRM policies,
within a year the average premium would increase from $585 to about $2,000 per year. The study analyzes various
scenarios for eliminating the subsidy. FEMA has proposed adopting a plan under which all pre-FIRM policies, other than
those for principal residences, would move to actuarial rates over a seven-year period. The subsidy for principal residences
would be reduced more gradually. The site also offers a summary of national flood policy changes recommended by the
ASFPM, as well as news from the association.
http://www.fema.gov/library/fldlosses.htm
In cooperation with the principal building code organizations, the Association of State Floodplain Managers, and the
American Society of Civil Engineers, FEMA has created a guide for building and community officials and others involved
in the planning and construction process entitled Reducing Flood Losses Through the International Code Series:
Meeting the Requirements of the National Flood Insurance Program. The guide is intended to help communities decide
how best to integrate building safety and floodplain management through code enforcement. The document, which can be
downloaded from the FEMA Web site above, provides an overview of the NFIP, outlines some broad approaches to
managing flood hazard areas, discusses the implications for floodplain management of adopting the new International
Code Series, and points out the many responsibilities that communities assume when they participate in the NFIP--both
those covered by the international codes and those that are not.
http://www.coastalmanagement.com
This not-for-profit site catalogs other informative sites on coastal management and research. It outlines new research and
provides links to over 1,000 coastal management Web pages world-wide including a broad range of hazard sites. It also
lists coastal conferences and events. In addition, the site provides access to a free e-mail coastal management newsletter
called icoast--intended to provide an efficient means for interested persons to keep up with recent coastal management
developments on the Internet. To subscribe to icoast send an e-mail to icoast_news-subscribe@egroups.com or visit the
Web site.
http://www.seismic.ca.gov
The California Seismic Safety Commission has put three new publications on-line at the address above, free for patient
downloaders of Adobe Acrobat (PDF) files.
http://www.seismo.nrcan.gc.ca/staff/maurice/psychosocial.html
Although not usually trained to manage or treat emotional stress, on occasion earth scientists must deal with people's fear
of the real or perceived danger posed by earthquakes and other geological hazards as expressed in letters, phone calls, or
during media interviews. For scientists faced with such situations, two Canadian geologists have prepared a short paper that
outlines some basic intervention tools that can be used when addressing people with anxieties about earthquakes. The
paper, "Earth Scientists Can Help People Who Fear Earthquakes," by Maurice Lamontagne and Sylvia La Rochelle, first
appeared in Seismological Research Letters 71, No. 4, pp. 461-463. However the text is now available on the Web at the
address above. Additionally, a reprint can be obtained from Maurice Lamontagne, Geological Survey of Canada, 7
Observatory Crescent, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A 0Y3; (613) 995-0600; fax: (613) 992-8836; e-mail: maurice@seismo.nrcan.gc.ca.
http://landslides.usgs.gov
http://landslides.usgs.gov/html_files/landslides/nationalmap/national.html
One of the links from the APA Landslides Project Web site (see the related article in this Observer) is to the USGS
Geological Hazards page on landslides, an extremely useful resource that we've described before. However, the APA
project also pointed out a nifty feature that we had not seen before (at the second URL above)--an interactive map of
landslide hazards across the United States, which can be viewed on-line or downloaded in more detail.
http://www.panda.org/resources/publications/climate/xweather/download.html
In September, the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) published on-line a 50-page report on Climate Change and
Extreme Weather Events, by P. Vellinga and W.J. van Verseveld of the Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije
University of Amsterdam. The report assesses current scientific understanding of the impact of climate change on weather
and meteorological extremes and addresses three main questions: To what extent can human influences on climate
presently be measured? What can we expect for the short and long term? and, How will measures to reduce net greenhouse
gas emissions affect future climate? The authors conclude that CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly
affecting temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, atmospheric circulation patterns, and ecosystems, and thus the
frequency, intensity, and distribution of extreme weather events.
majordomo@ucar.edu
http://www.esig.ucar.edu/socasp/zine/
The Environmental and Societal Impacts Group (ESIG) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has
announced a new e-mail listserve and an educational resource guide for persons interested in research regarding the policy
aspects of meteorology and climate hazards. The list is called "Weather-Policy"; to join, send an e-mail to majordomo@ucar.edu and in the body of the message type: "subscribe weather-policy <your e-mail
address>" (do not include quotation
marks or brackets). For additional information about the resource guide and ESIG's involvement in this area, contact Roger
A. Pielke, Jr., ESIG/NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000; (303) 497-8111; fax: (303) 497-8125; e-mail:
rogerp@ucar.edu; and/or see the opening editorial in the August 2000 edition of ESIG's on-line periodical, Weatherzine,
at the URL above.
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/321/7262/650
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/321/7262/670
The September 16 issue of the British Medical Journal contains an editorial and paper on risks due to temperature
extremes brought on by global climate change (for additional information and Web sites dealing with this issue, see the
previous Observer, Vol. XXV, No. 1, p. 18). The editorial, "Saving Lives During Extreme Weather in Summer," by
Laurence Kalkstein of the Center for Climate Research, University of Delaware, calls on health professionals worldwide to
work with local health agencies and emergency management offices to develop reliable systems to warn of and deal with
temperature extremes. The article, "Heat Related Mortality in Warm and Cold Regions of Europe: Observational Study,"
by several European researchers, offers some interesting findings: annual cold-related mortality is higher than heat-related
mortality across Europe, and, overall, Europeans can be expected to adjust to global warming predicted for the next half
century. The authors point out, however, that their findings in no way negate the need to take pre-emptive measures against
heat stress.
http://www.dismedmaster.com
The provision of medical services in disasters requires specific knowledge, the ability to organize an emergency medical
system adapted to a specific disaster situation, and the professional skill to provide medical care of high quality even in a
hostile environment. To meet these goals, education and training in all aspects of disaster medicine are essential.
Recognizing the need for such training, as well as for medical involvement in planning for and coordinating disaster
response, a group of European universities has established a Web-based program offering a "European Master in Disaster
Medicine." The program Web site provides information about course goals and program design, as well as an outline of
course content and information about how courses are actually conducted. For more information, see the Web site above or
contact Francesco Della Corte, Chairman of the Organizing Secretariat, Istituto di Anestesiologia e Rianimazione,
Università Cattolica del S. Cuore, L.go A. Gemelli 8-00168 Rome, Italy; tel: 0630154490; fax: 063013450; e-mail:
fcorte@uni.net.
http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk
In January 2000 the U.K. Minister for Science announced the creation of a Task Force on Potentially Hazardous Near Earth
Objects (NEOs--asteroids and comets whose orbits bring them close to the earth). He invited the task force to recommend
how the U.K. could best contribute to international efforts to determine and mitigate the risk of collisions with NEOs. This
Web site offers the final report of the task force, including 14 recommendations. The task force notes that the risk due to
objects whose orbits are known can be projected with temporal and spatial accuracy, whereas the risk due to uncharted
objects can only be computed using statistical averages and thus cannot include predictions of time or place of occurrence.
Consequently, a principle focus of the recommendations is the establishment of facilities (i.e., telescopes) and programs to
identify and chart the orbits of NEOs. They also address the British role in a greater international effort, the assessment of
risks, and measures to mitigate future impacts. In addition, the report provides a comprehensive review of current
knowledge about this hazard.
http://www.Egroups.com/group/SwiftH2O-News
http://www.Egroups.com/group/DisasterSurvivorSupport
Two new e-mail lists have been created. The first focuses on lifesaving in hydrological hazards; the second is a support
group for disaster survivors. SwiftH20-News enables swiftwater/flood rescue personnel, emergency managers,
meteorologists, and others to exchange information, post operational guidelines, and discuss the discipline of technical
rescue. Membership is free and open to all interested persons. The DisasterSurvivorSupport group is a peer support
network for anyone who has endured a disaster, including families who have lost loved ones. The list is open to the public
and intended to be a "survivor helping survivor" network; however, research professionals are also welcome. For more
information or to subscribe to either group, see the Web pages above.
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