Uncertainty is inherent in ecosystems, despite our efforts to reduce it, and our tendency to perceive certainty and repeating patterns where randomness and chaos prevail.

[This fundamental precept also applies to complex human systems including of course the economy, and engineering systems like the Space Transport System, otherwise known as the space shuttle. What do you think a NASA engineer would have given in 1981 (year of first shuttle flight) as the likelihood that over the next 24 years, half of the original fleet of four shuttles would have been lost to catastrophic failures?]

The sources of ecological uncertainty are listed in Table 3.1. We will go over them in class. I will not re-iterate in these notes the 11 (eleven) phenomena discussed under these four categories since the text is clear and succinct. Each is described under a bolded heading in the chapter. At least one mid-term question will come from each of the four categories.

We will conduct Exercise 3.2 in plenary, and then break into groups for Ex. 3.4.