Geography 2412

Lecture Notes

Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming---Chap. 10 Sec. 10.6; 10.7 and 10.8

Our Focus: International effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and global warming

– Obviously global problem

– Climate Convention and Kyoto Agreements

– Equity (cause and solution)

– SEE: Exercise 7

Issue is directly linked to energy systems, as most of the human-induced (anthropogenic) increase in greenhouse gases is caused by burning of fossil fuels (some is also derived from net loss thru clearing, burning, etc. of forests and other plant communities).

Basic Science Issues:

Greenhouse gases (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, as well as some synthetics like CFCs like Freon) affect the earth’s energy or heat balance by being transparent to incoming solar radiation (short wave) and more opaque to outgoing terrestrial (long wave) radiation. More GG shoves this to a positive balance, and thus the earth’s equilibrium surface temperature increases.

Uncertain climate effects, but growing consensus that global warming means:

–Overall warming, probably greater in high latitudes;

–Overall wetter—warmer means an intensified hydrologic cycle;

–Sea level rise—as oceans warm and expand and as land ice (glaciers and ice caps) melt in a warmer climate;

But still large uncertainties: how much warmer, where? What about potential negative feedbacks: cooling by clouds and aerosols?

Also some scientists argue that much of the current warming is natural cycle coming out of the "Little Ice Age" of 1600s-1700s, and that the temp record is contaminated by urban "heat island" growth.

Policy Response

Whether you accept the argument that this is a large threat, there is an international process underway in response, so we’ll focus on that now and in this week’s recitations.

•Responses

Mitigation: reduce GG build-up; slow warming

Adaptation: adjust to climate change

General principles: The instrument of response, a treaty or some form of international agreement:

•Must be global, multilateral because the problem is global

•Must address equity of cause/impacts, because the causes and impacts are not evenly distributed

The "international community" has moved, during the last decade, toward some form of international agreement or treaty to limit global warming, chiefly by limiting GG emissions.

This got its first big push at the Rio "Earth Summit" in 1992, where the "parties" (*most of the UN members) signed an "Accord" on climate that suggested voluntary reductions in GGs.

Meetings afterward moved toward a UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, as described in the material you are looking at in recitation this week. Be sure to review this material for the exam, especially the Exercise 6 "Briefing" (on class web site).

The framework convention was turned into a treaty called the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 which stipulated that industrial countries would reduce GG emissions collectively by 5% below their 1990 levels. Even though the US and other countries signed, they all have not yet ‘ratified" the treaty, so it is not yet in force. The Bush administration has decided not to seek congressional ratification of the Kyoto agreement, for reasons some of which are spelled out in his speech on the subject, available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/06/20010611-2.html.

•Bush’s criticisms (not all laid out in his speech):

–the treaty is flawed because it has no long term goal, and is based on inadequate science

–Gives LDCs a pass (he mentions China and India in the speech)

–Too "precipitous" (the US would have to reduce emissions 30% given growth by the 2008-2012 target window)

–Hurts the US economy

–Makes US depend on emissions trading (we’re growing while other coutnries, like Russia and Japan, are not, so they can meet or exceed their targets more easily and could then have emission credits to sell; we’d be the big buyer and would get taken to the cleaners)

Bush has also argued, along with some other countries, that countries which can be shown to be absorbing CO2 through their forest and agricultural systems should get credit not only for emission reductions, but for scrubbing CO2 from the atmosphere.

If Kyoto fails to be ratified by enough countries (including the biggest emitter, the US_) what are the options?

•Re-negotiate to involve LDCs in earlier reductions?

•Improve terms of technology transfer?

• Recognize that there are too many barriers--- political, economic, monitoring, enforcement, trading, etc.-–nothing like this in the world - So:

Give up, and:

•Accept more global warming but seek more rapid development that can solve the problem as countries become more efficient and able to respond?

Go for Carbon sequestering

Go for adaptation