Debate
3
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The Aftermath of the War in Afghanistan
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The third debate of the class will focus on the prospects
for Afghanistan
in the wake of the US
attack on the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in October 2001 after the terrorist attacks
on New York and Washington
DC.
The main foci of the debates are the interests of outsiders in the
country, the ethnic divisions of Afghanistan,
and the scenarios for the future.
Obviously, we cannot anticipate the next few years in Afghanistan
with any certainty but we can outline and contrast the interests of the
external actors and their local allies.
Keep in mind Saul Cohen’s concept of shatterbelt and his recent
writing to the effect that Central Asia, including Afghanistan,
has now become a shatterbelt in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet
Union and the arrival of the US
in this region. Also, remember to
connect recent developments in Afghanistan
with the conflicts in the Caucasus and the Caspian
Sea region. Afghanistan
is not an island; it is surrounded by strongly interested neighbors (Iran,
Russia, and Pakistan). Also, Afghanistan
is not only a terrorist base (as US
media might have you believe) but a country with deep-seated ethnic
rivalries. Additionally, the country
has a long history of conflict involving outsiders. What makes the current war different is the extended reach of the
US to the region, the first time since the mid nineteenth-century involvement
of Great Britain that a great power has come so far to be involved in Afghani affairs. In more recent decades, it was the neighbors
(Soviet Union-Russia, Iran
and Pakistan)
that were most involved.
It is hard to remain precise for very long about the current
state of play, militarily or diplomatically, in Afghanistan. At the time of writing (January 2004), it
appears as if both situations continue to be extremely unstable. The Afghanistani government, under the
leadership of the US
backed leader Hamid Karzai, barely controls Kabul
and its immediate surroundings and relies on a network of local tribal leaders
for its influence elsewhere. The result
is a patchwork of controls and as recent fighting has shown, the Taliban (or at
least their supporters) are far from a finished force. A UN-mandated peacekeeping force, under
British leadership, is based in Kabul
but does not leave its immediate environs, according to its mandate. Elsewhere, starvation on a massive scale is
barely being averted – thanks to the massive intervention by international aid
agencies. US
ground forces are mostly stationed in Kandahar
but they range widely looking for Al-Qaeda fighters and to support Karzai’s
followers. Russia
is backing the Uzbek leader General Rashid Dostum of the Northern
Alliance; he has changed sides many times before and is clearly dubious
about the Pushtun-leadership of the Karzai coalition. Iran
(a member of the “axis of evil according to George W. Bush) is backing Tajik
leader, General Ismail Khan, based in the west of Afghanistan
(bordering Iran)
and is accused by the US
of undermining the Karzai government.
The biggest ethnic group, the Pashtuns of the south-east along the
Pakistani border, are split – most backed the Taliban in recent years and they
were strongly supported by the Pakistanis.
Now, it is unclear to what extent Pakistan
is supporting its former allies, as it remains loyal (for now) to the US-led
coalition backing Karzai. What we can
be sure of is that Pakistan
will remain a most interested party to any future of Afghanistan.
Click on the underlined links for general information on the
topic:
A review of the (near) current situation and the numerous
pitfalls and scenarios from Guardian commentator, Simon Tisdall, “No Easy Answers for Afghanistan.”
A map and chart of the ethnic groups in Afghanistan
is available from the University of Texas Map Library. Here is some historical
background information on Afghanistan from the UN Assistance Mission
in Afghanistan (UNAMA). You might also
find the BBC Country Profile for Afghanistan to be
of some use.
Be sure to also read The Economist background reading,
“Special report –Fighting terrorism” 29
September 2001, 15-23 (on electronic reserve).
Pakistan is the most important neighbor to Afghanistan. Pakistan’s role is described in this brief
Economist article. For general news in
Pakistan, see the News Network International. You might find DAWN
or The
Nation (English-language Pakistani newspaper) useful, also The
Frontier Post covers Afghanistan too (it would take some work, but you
might get a flavor of the Northwest Pakistani opinions – see also ‘Company
Profiles’ for the newspaper’s perspective).
Russian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Click English, and search Afghanistan,
spend some time looking through the results list). The St. Petersburg Times has good archives to
search, see for example, “Can the U.S. and Russia Agree about Afghanistan?”
Team C
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Critics of the U.S. Administration – the Left
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See the Third World Traveler article, “Behind the Fog of Deception.” There are many other anti-war websites and critical
groups, see for example, Michael Moore’s website (scroll down to 9/11,
Afghanistan, and the ‘War on Terror’), or The
Monthly Review.
Edward Cody writes about Iranian aid to Afghan militias. Also, here’s President
Khatami’s website, click on ‘Views’ to see quotable opinions of this
leader. BBC has a good profile on Ismail Khan.
Team E
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Bush Administration
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The Bush Administration’s Fact Sheet on Rebuilding Afghanistan.
Questions to Answer:
- Who
(which group, ethnic or otherwise) inside Afghanistan do you support at
the present time (April 2004)?
- What
is the best outcome for Afghanistan
as you look at the country?
- What
policies should the world community (aka UN) pursue in Afghanistan
to end the three decades of war and suffering?
- Has
the US
military campaign against the Taliban been successful – why or why not?
- From your perspective, is the long term future for Afghanistan
optimistic or pessimistic?
