GEOG 2002: Geographies of Global Change: Spring 2009

The Aftermath of the War in Afghanistan

The third debate of the class will focus on the prospects for Afghanistan in the wake of the US attack on the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in October 2001 after the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington DC.  The main foci of the debates are the interests of outsiders in the country, the ethnic divisions of Afghanistan, and the scenarios for the future.  Obviously, we cannot anticipate the next few years in Afghanistan with any certainty but we can outline and contrast the interests of the external actors and their local allies.  Keep in mind Saul Cohen’s concept of shatterbelt and his recent writing to the effect that Central Asia, including Afghanistan, has now become a shatterbelt in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the arrival of the US in this region.  Remember to connect recent developments in Afghanistan with the conflicts in the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea region.  Afghanistan is not an island; it is surrounded by strongly interested neighbors (Iran, Russia, and Pakistan).  Afghanistan has not only been a terrorist base (as the US political establishment and media state) but a country with deep-seated ethnic rivalries.  Additionally, the country has a long history of conflict involving outsiders.  What makes the current war different is the extended reach of the US to the region, the first time since the mid nineteenth-century involvement of Great Britain that a great power has come so far to be involved in Afghan affairs.  In more recent decades, it was the neighbors (Soviet Union-Russia, Iran and Pakistan) that were most involved.

It is hard to remain precise for very long about the current state of play, militarily or diplomatically, in Afghanistan.  At the time of writing (March 2009), it appears as if both situations continue to be extremely unstable.  The Afghan government, under the leadership of the US-backed leader Hamid Karzai, barely controls Kabul and its immediate surroundings and relies on a network of local tribal leaders for its influence elsewhere.  The result is a patchwork of controls and as recent fighting has shown, the Taliban (or at least their supporters) are far from a finished force as they regain power in areas from which they were expelled in 2001-02.  A NATO peacekeeping force is based in Kabul and has recently been trying to extend its control in the south provinces, especially Helmand.  Elsewhere, pauperization on a large scale is barely being averted – thanks to the massive intervention by international aid agencies.  US ground forces are mostly stationed in the east and the capital region but they range widely looking for Al-Qaeda fighters and to support Karzai’s followers.  In recent months, the US has stepped up its use of drone pilotless aircraft to fie missiles on Taliban and supporters’ bases across the border in Pakistan, leading to condemnation and anti-US protests. (Pakistan’s government is barely hanging on). Russia is backing the Uzbek leader General Rashid Dostum of the Northern Alliance; he has changed sides many times before and is clearly dubious about the Pushtun-leadership of the Karzai coalition.  Iran (a member of the “axis of evil” according to George W. Bush) is backing Tajik leader, General Ismail Khan, based in the west of Afghanistan (bordering Iran) and is accused by the US of undermining the Karzai government.  The biggest ethnic group, the Pashtuns of the south-east along the Pakistani border, are split – most backed the Taliban in recent years and they were strongly supported by the Pakistani secret service.  Now, it is unclear to what extent that Pakistan is supporting its former allies, as it remains loyal (for now) to the US-led coalition backing Karzai.  In any case, the Taliban have a lot of support in the tribal areas along the Afghan-Pakistani border.  What we can be sure of is that Pakistan will remain a most interested party to any future of Afghanistan.

Click on the underlined links for general information on the topic:

An  earlier review of the current situation and the numerous pitfalls and scenarios from a Guardian commentator, Michael Williams, “Obama Administration and Afghanistan” Guardian Feb 19, 2009

A map and chart of the ethnic groups in Afghanistan is available from the University of Texas Map Library.  Here is some background information on Afghanistan from the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  You might also find the BBC Country Profile for Afghanistan to be of some use.  Read this article for a recent BBC News update of the post-Taliban situation.  Make sure to read the Economist article on Aghanistan-Pakistan in the electronic course readings for this week as a key background article.