Debate 3
|
The
Aftermath of the War in Afghanistan
|
The third debate of the class will focus on the prospects for Afghanistan
in the wake of the US
attack on the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in October 2001 after the terrorist attacks
on New York
and Washington
DC. The main foci of the debates are the
interests of outsiders in the country, the ethnic divisions of Afghanistan,
and the scenarios for the future.
Obviously, we cannot anticipate the next few years in Afghanistan
with any certainty but we can outline and contrast the interests of the
external actors and their local allies.
Keep in mind Saul Cohen’s concept of shatterbelt and his recent
writing to the effect that Central Asia, including Afghanistan,
has now become a shatterbelt in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet
Union and the arrival of the US
in this region. Also, remember to
connect recent developments in Afghanistan
with the conflicts in the Caucasus and the Caspian
Sea region. Afghanistan
is not an island; it is surrounded by strongly interested neighbors (Iran,
Russia, and Pakistan). Also, Afghanistan
is not only a terrorist base (as US
media might have you believe) but a country with deep-seated ethnic
rivalries. Additionally, the country has
a long history of conflict involving outsiders.
What makes the current war different is the extended reach of the US to
the region, the first time since the mid nineteenth-century involvement of
Great Britain that a great power has come so far to be involved in Afghani
affairs. In more recent decades, it was
the neighbors (Soviet Union-Russia, Iran
and Pakistan)
that were most involved.
It is hard to remain precise for very long about the current state of play,
militarily or diplomatically, in Afghanistan. At the time of writing (January 2006), it
appears as if both situations continue to be extremely unstable. The Afghanistani government, under the
leadership of the US
backed leader Hamid Karzai, barely controls Kabul
and its immediate surroundings and relies on a network of local tribal leaders
for its influence elsewhere. The result
is a patchwork of controls and as recent fighting has shown, the Taliban (or at
least their supporters) are far from a finished force. A UN-mandated peacekeeping force, under
British leadership, is based in Kabul
but does not leave its immediate environs, according to its mandate. Elsewhere, pauperization on a large scale is
barely being averted – thanks to the massive intervention by international aid
agencies. US
ground forces are mostly stationed in the east and the capital region but they
range widely looking for Al-Qaeda fighters and to support Karzai’s
followers. Russia
is backing the Uzbek leader General Rashid Dostum of the Northern
Alliance; he has changed sides many times before and is clearly
dubious about the Pushtun-leadership of the Karzai coalition. Iran
(a member of the “axis of evil according to George W. Bush) is backing Tajik
leader, General Ismail Khan, based in the west of Afghanistan
(bordering Iran)
and is accused by the US
of undermining the Karzai government.
The biggest ethnic group, the Pashtuns of the south-east along the
Pakistani border, are split – most backed the Taliban in recent years and they
were strongly supported by the Pakistanis.
Now, it is unclear to what extent Pakistan
is supporting its former allies, as it remains loyal (for now) to the US-led
coalition backing Karzai. What we can be
sure of is that Pakistan
will remain a most interested party to any future of Afghanistan.
Click on the underlined links for general information on the topic:
A review of the (near) current situation and the numerous pitfalls and
scenarios from Guardian commentator, Simon Tisdall, “No Easy Answers for Afghanistan.”
A map and chart of the ethnic groups in Afghanistan
is available from the University of Texas Map Library. Here is some background information on Afghanistan from the UN Assistance Mission
in Afghanistan (UNAMA). You might also
find the BBC Country Profile for Afghanistan to be
of some use. Read this article for a
recent BBC
News update of the post-Taliban situation.
Pakistan is the most important neighbor to Afghanistan. Pakistan’s role is described in this brief
Economist article. For general news in Pakistan,
you will find DAWN or The Nation (English-language Pakistani
newspaper) useful. Another Pakistani
newspaper with a searchable index is The
Daily News
Russian Ministry
of Foreign Affairs (Click English, and search Afghanistan, spend
some time looking through the results list).
The St.
Petersburg Times has good archives to search. See also an article about Russia’s
interests in immediate post-Taliban Afghanistan. Also, another
article puts Russia’s interests in the wider geopolitical perspective of
central Asia and its externality effects on Russia.
Team
C
|
Critics
of the U.S. Administration – the Left
|
See the Third World Traveler article, “Behind the Fog of Deception.” There are many other anti-war websites and
critical groups, see for example, Michael Moore’s website (scroll down to
9/11, Afghanistan, and the ‘War on Terror’), or The
Monthly Review.
A good review article about Iranian influence through Ismail Khan in found
in Strategic
Insights 2004. Also, here’s President
Ahmadinejad’s website, switch to English and click on ‘Views’ to see
quotable opinions of the Iranian president.
BBC has a good profile on Ismail Khan.
Team
E
|
Bush
Administration
|
The Bush Administration’s Fact Sheet on Rebuilding Afghanistan.
Questions to Answer:
- Who (which group, ethnic or
otherwise) inside Afghanistan do you support at the present time (April
2006)?
- What is the best outcome for Afghanistan
as you look at the country?
- What policies should the
world community (aka UN) pursue in Afghanistan
to end the three decades of war and suffering?
- Has the US
military campaign against the Taliban been successful – why or why not?
- From your perspective, is the
long term future for Afghanistan
optimistic or pessimistic?
