NEWSLETTER May, 1992 TABLE OF CONTENTS CRC Hewlett Grant Renewed Call for HELP with Information Exchange Project Project Update: Justice Without Violence Project Update: Environmental Problem Solving Project Update: Intractable Conflict Seminar Reports Working Paper List CRC'S HEWLETT GRANT RENEWED We are pleased to announce that the Hewlett Foundation has renewed its grant to the Conflict Resolution Consortium, giving us $210,000 for another three years. The Consortium and the University are very grateful for this support which has enabled us to develop a strong and active program of research on international, environmen- tal, and intractable conflicts. We plan to continue this work over the next three years, with an emphasis on broadening and strength- ening our work in these areas and developing a more diversified funding base to carry us into the future. CONFLICT RESOLUTION INFORMATION EXCHANGE CALL FOR CONTRIBUTORS AND USERS Have you (or your students) ever wanted an easy-to-use, computer searchable bibliography of the peace research and conflict reso- lution literature? Do you have bibliographic or other computerized data on peace research, conflict, or dispute resolution that you might be willing to share? If you do research or have information related to peace, conflict, or dispute resolution (international or domestic) we need to hear from you! For the past several years, the Consortium has been developing a cooperative, computer-based bibliography and database of peace research, nonviolence, and conflict/dispute resolution literature and other computerized information. We have recently received a grant from the U.S. Institute of Peace to dramatically expand, improve, and more widely disseminate this low-cost system to interested peace and conflict resolution scholars. The key to the system's comprehensiveness and low cost is its cooperative design. Rather than depending on our data alone, we are collecting bibliographic or other computerized data from a large number of researchers; combining this data into a single, computer-searchable system; inserting standardized search terms; and distributing the system to contributors and others for their own use. TOPICS: We are interested in all conflict and dispute resolution topics--international, public policy, environmental, organiza- tional, labor-management, race/ethnicity/gender and other intracta- ble conflicts, and interpersonal and family conflicts. We are also interested in work that compares traditional, alternative, and innovative processes as well as comparisons of U.S. approaches to conflict and dispute resolution to those used elsewhere. TYPES OF INFORMATION NEEDED: Bibliographic citations with or without descriptors, search terms, annotations, or abstracts; Lists of peace research professionals along with their areas of interest and expertise as well as their organizational affilia- tions; Lists of peace research and conflict resolution organizations (research, educational, and practitioner); Information about the conflict resolution activities of various professional associations; Summaries of existing datasets and ongoing data collection efforts which could be used for further research; On-going and proposed research projects; Full text versions of key reference books; Information about peace related teaching programs at all levels; Peace related educational materials and resources; Any other relevant computer-based information. Contributions can range from a bibliography from a single well- researched paper or a regional mailing list from a peace research organization to a major annotated bibliography project. Ar- rangements can be made to obtain royalties for bibliographies which have been previously published in print format. Call the CRC for details. ACCEPTABLE DATA FORMATS: If possible, we need contributions to be supplied to us on floppy disks (IBM-PC compatible or Macintosh), by electronic mail (Internet or IGC Networks), or Internet FTP file transfers. In some cases, we can accept typewritten or printed bibliographies as well. We can accept contributions in a wide variety of formats; call us for details. CONVERSION TO STANDARD FORMAT, DISTRIBUTION, AND COST: The Consortium will convert all contributed files into standardized computer searchable formats, and will, to the extent possible, insert uniform descriptor codes. The data files together with search software will then be distributed to contributors and other interested individuals and organizations so that they can then run the system themselves on a wide variety of computer systems. (Several formats and search systems will be available.) As additional information is added to the system, participants will also receive System UPDATES for the cost of duplication and mailing. The cost of the whole system, including search software, runs between $50 and $365.00, depending on the specific search software selected. Contributors, however, will receive a discount. PLEASE CALL, WRITE, OR E-MAIL US A MESSAGE IF YOU: Would like more information Would be willing to contribute bibliographical or other com- puterized data to the Exchange, Would be willing to suggest others who might be able to contribute, Would like to purchase a copy of the system, Have questions or comments. Direct Inquiries to: Guy or Heidi Burgess Conflict Resolution Consortium Campus Box 327 University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado 80309 (303) 492-1635 FAX: (303) 492-6388 (call first) Internet: CRC@CUBLDR.COLORADO.EDU This project can help us all. However, it cannot succeed without your support. Please help if you can! PROJECT UPDATES Justice Without Violence Program The Justice Without Violence Program is now finishing work on its first book, to be submitted to a publisher later this spring. This book will give an overview of current nonviolence literature, and present two additional theoretical chapters (one by Kenneth Boul- ding, and the other by Doug Bond of the Harvard University Program on Nonviolent Sanctions). It will also include case studies of nonviolence in justice conflicts in the Mideast, Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, China, Africa, and Central America. A concluding synthesis chapter begins to develop a multi-disciplinary theory on the use of nonviolence in justice conflicts based on the case studies and other theoretical works. Preliminary versions of most chapters are now available as CRC working papers (see order form later in this newsletter). Environmental Problem-Solving Program Global Change and Environmental Problem Solving Symposium CU's second annual Symposium on Global Change and Environmental Quality (GECQ) was held on the Denver campus April 12 and 13th. The conference was organized by Lloyd Burton who is the Denver campus chair of the GCEQ program (in addition to serving as co- chair of the CRC Governing Board and project director of the CRC's Environmental Problem Solving Project.) The theme of the conference was Science and Policy: The Informa- tion/Action Interface. Unlike last year's conference, which involved mostly academicians, this conference brought together researchers and policy makers to discuss current research and policy processes. Topics included global warming (i.e., the green- house effect), regional climate and environmental change, ozone depletion, air pollution and acid rain, and global environmental education efforts. All of the recipients of University seed money grants on Global Change and Environmental Quality (which include the Consortium's Environmental Problem Solving Program) gave presentations; other speakers represented federal, state, and local agencies involved in global and regional environmental issues. While the presentations were highly diverse, several themes emerged repeatedly. One was the problem of uncertainty, especially as it relates to global warming. Despite a great deal of money and effort, scientists are still not able to predict with accuracy how much global warming is likely to occur, or how fast. Nor are they able to predict the probable effects of warming on regional or local climate, or environmental conditions. This uncertainty has been used as an excuse in the U.S. to continue to study the problem, rather than act, according to keynote speaker David Skaggs (Colorado Representative to the U.S. House of Repre- sentatives). The United States, which emits far more greenhouse gasses than any other nation, is the only developed nation which refuses to limit CO2 emissions. This makes other countries less likely to respond as well, said Skaggs. Several researchers and policy makers agreed that uncertainty exists, but argued that the changes we need to make to prevent or reduce global warming are changes we need to make for other reasons anyway. An example would be reducing our reliance on fossil fuels. We need to do this for economic and national security reasons, not just because of greenhouse warming. The current U.S. response, Skaggs argued, is both impractical and immoral. If we wait until the scientific data is unambiguous, serious irreparable damage may already have been done. Policy makers need to take decisive action now, Skaggs said, to try to limit the impacts of global warming before they become clear. Political action, however, is limited by our social, economic, and political institutions which tend to be highly inflexible. While more technical studies need to be done, the presentations clearly demonstrated that equal (or even more) research is needed on the economic, political, and social foundations of environmental problems. We need to better understand how these institutions do and don't function to allow us to adapt--both proactively and reactively--to environmental change. Gene Kersey, an environmental engineer with the Region VIII Office of the Environmental Protection agency suggested that we need a combination of three approaches to deal with global environmental change. These are mitigation, adaptation, and research and development, all of which must be pursued simultaneously. Mitigation measures are behavior changes which will reduce the problem directly. Examples are reducing the burning of fossil fuels, and halting the destruction of the rainforests. Adaptation measures are reactive behavior changes, designed to facilitate societal adjustment to climatic changes that do occur. By research and development, Kersey meant continued technical research on the nature of the environmental problems and potential technical solutions to them. We argue that research and development is also needed on the institutional structure which will be involved in any mitigation or adaptation efforts. We must better understand the social, economic, political, and legal institutions that are now in operation, in order to be able to design changes that will either mitigate or adapt effectively to environmental change. CRC Environmental Problem-Solving Project The CRC project on Environmental Problem Solving is taking this approach. The project is examining institutional responses to the California drought as an example of the type of problem institu- tions might face repeatedly if global warming causes drought in the Western United States. Beyond suggesting institutional changes that might allow California to better handle its current water situa- tion, the CRC project also considers how other institutional mechanisms in the West might be altered to enable them to adapt more effectively, ficiently, and equitably when drought occurs. In addition to the papers written by Lloyd Burton, Chuck Howe, and Larry MacDonnell (which were described in the February 1992 CRC Newsletter), this project considered high-tech information management as an option for improved drought response. Writing about computer-based simulations and decision support systems, Lynn Johnson and Rene Reitsma describe such tools, which enable decision makers to better understand the extreme complexity of the water supply and distribution system. A concluding chapter, written by Guy and Heidi Burgess, examines the environmental problem solving process from a social and historical perspective, examining how the system has changed over time and how it must change again to adapt to the changing environment. Decision Support Systems: Environ- mental decision support systems (DDS), Reitsma explains, consist of three interrelated components: 1) models and simulations, 2) visualization and data-analysis, and 3) evaluation and decision-making. The integration of modeling and visualization components makes it possible to explore large numbers of "what if..." scenarios within a limited amount of time. Evaluation capabilities enable DSS to quickly assess different scenarios and policy alternatives on the basis of the evaluation criteria of all parties to a dispute. In this way DSS technology can offer parties in environmental disputes a sound technical basis for discussion and negotiation. However, Reitsma cautions, DSS will not make decision making any easier. Interest groups will still hold their ground, and conflicts will always ensue. However, DSS can make the process more understandable, can reduce the risk of technical errors, and can force people to make more explicit and conscious political decisions rather than merely muddling along. Computer Models and Simulations: In his paper, Johnson agrees with Reitsma's view, stating that models can be used to clarify a vast complexity of information, but the development and use of these models remains problematic. Computerized water models, Johnson states, have two typical shortcomings. One relates to the models themselves and their inability to represent the plethora of physi- cal, chemical, biological, and social components of the systems. The second problem involves how the models are used, by whom and in what institutional context. Regarding model use, competing interest groups are seeking full disclosure of technical information and access to models and data so that they can examine model validity and make their own selections of inputs and performance controls. This is one area where advances are sought to take maximum advantage of the information which the models do generate. Computer-aided planning, computer-aided negotiation, and gaming simulations hold promise for increasing the forums for communica- tion, providing for "defensible" decisions, and perhaps for identification of new compromise alternates. Adapting to Spaceship Earth: The final, concluding chapter of the Environmental Problem Solving book was written by Guy and Heidi Burgess. In this chapter, the Burgesses argue that the amount of harm we will suffer from global warming and other environmental changes will be primarily determined by the degree and speed with which society is able to adapt to the changing conditions. This adaptation, most likely, will not be limited by technical con- straints as much as by social, political, and economic constraints. For instance, we have enormous technical abilities to store and transport water, as is evidenced by the Bureau of Reclamation, the California State Water Project, and the Los Angeles Metropolitan Water District which long-ago repealed the desert's climatic constraints upon agricultural production and urban growth. Thus, many people assume, we will also be able to build the additional water storage and diversion projects needed to make up for any greenhouse-induced shortfalls. Unfortunately, the Burgesses argue, this is probably not true. They trace the history of water development in the west through three different phases of "cowboy earth" (a term taken from Kenneth Boulding) through the now-developing "spaceship earth." In the "cowboy" era, limitless water was distributed first through a riparian system where people settled close to water sources and took what they needed. The system of prior appropriation was later initiated which allowed people to withdraw water from a stream and transport it to another location on a first come-first served basis. Finally, when such diversion became too expensive and difficult, the federal and state governments moved in, building major water projects which then sold water to users at highly subsidized rates. Each of these approaches avoided zero-sum (winner-loser) conflicts as everyone who needed water was able to get it without taking it from someone else. However, these systems are now beginning to fail as there simply is not enough unallocated water left at a price anyone can afford. Therefore, adaptation to future droughts (greenhouse-induced or not) will require the reallocation of existing water supplies among current users. This reallocation is likely to be highly con- tentious and time consuming as current users will be competing with new users for a dwindling supply of water. Especially contentious issues are likely to include limits on windfall profits from the sale of subsidized water or senior water rights, optimal protection for endangered and threatened species, continuation of agricultural subsidies, groundwater regulation, determination of acceptable levels of water pollution (including stream flow requirements for dilution), and limits on out-of-basin water transfers. To the extent that these issues can be worked through now, instead of waiting for a crisis, the better able we will be to cope with reduced water supplies if and when they occur in California or elsewhere in the arid West. INTRACTABLE CONFLICT PROGRAM The CRC workload on other projects proved to be sufficiently intractable this semester that this program was less active than we wished. However, the events of this spring have intensified our belief that the University and society overall needs new and different ways to examine and deal with a wide variety of intracta- ble conflicts. We therefore plan to intensify our work in this area over the coming months, with the goal of producing several major grant proposals, and perhaps an edited book. More details on this program will be given in the next newsletter. SEMINAR REPORTS ADR: Continue the Mandate? Panel Discussion with Judges Bill Meyer, Morris Hoffman, and Nancy Rice. February, 26 1992 Sponsored by the Denver Bar Association. Judge Meyer provided a brief history of the move toward Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) in the Denver bench. Beginning in the Summer of 1990, ADR was made mandatory for virtually all civil cases. Program evaluation through informal surveys indicated that, although the majority of attorneys were in favor of ADR procedures, the particular types of ADR employed were often not helpful. Many responded that the mandatory program called for ADR too soon in the process (within three months of suit filing). Other complaints focused upon particular types of cases which were felt inappropri- ate for ADR. Finally, others complained that the settlement judges used were not adequately prepared. Although the Denver bench concluded that they were in favor of mandatory ADR, they conceded that changes were necessary to better ensure its efficacy. They therefore promulgated new procedures to govern the employment of ADR. Judge Rice described the new procedures for implementing ADR in civil cases. Determination of whether ADR is appropriate will be made at the time of trial setting to eliminate cases which might settle early in the process. At the time of setting, judges will evaluate the cases using an assessment checklist. Cases set for one day or less would be exempted from the requirement due to two factors - such cases have too quick a turnaround and, more than 95% of these cases settle anyway. Cases requiring more than five days on the court calendar will receive two points in the assessment. Additionally, professional liability (malpractice) cases will receive two points since they frequently involve parties taking philosophical stands who are unwilling to compromise their beliefs. Factors affording one point include: involvement of a governmental entity (as a party); cases involving third party claims, counter- claims, or cross-claims; cases involving multiple plaintiffs or defendants represented by different counsel; and, high publicity cases. After weighing the factors, judges, in their discretion, will issue an ADR order for cases receiving fewer than three points. Cases with three points will typically receive an order for a pre-trial conference during which ADR is considered. Cases with more than three points will typically not receive an ADR order. Importantly, the point system represents only a guideline. Judges are free to exercise their discretion regardless of the point value of any particular case. The goal of the program is to encourage earlier settlement in order to save parties(and the court) the time and expense of a trial. Judge Hoffman's remarks were centered around his initial opposition to the process of ADR. Through experience on the bench, however, he has come to the viewpoint that a narrow band of cases exist for which ADR (or court-ordered settlement conferences) are appropri- ate. He noted that both adherents and opponents of ADR frequently carry a religious fervor in espousing their viewpoints. Chances for Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe Presentation by Zbigneiw Pelczynski, born in Poland, Professor Pelczynski is now an English citizen and Professor of Political Science at Oxford University Professor Pelczynski began by comparing the recent revolutions in the nations formerly belonging to the East Bloc to the French Revolution in the late 1700s. The recent uprisings are significant for several reasons: they were relatively sudden and short in duration, they affected a larger number of people and a greater geographical area than the French Revolution, they brought down an entrenched elite with almost no violence, and they represented the utopian dream of democracy. After the collapse of communism, most of the nations instituted some form of democratic government. Professor Pelczynski is most interested in assessing whether or not the fledgling democracies will last for an extended period of time. Pelczynski believes that building democracy is a long process that depends on several factors, many of which are not political. The changes in Eastern and Central Europe have been relatively quick and easy; politicians were found and elections were held quickly. The attention of the West has been focused on this mechanistic process of democratization that creates a democratic political system by altering the structures of government. Pelczynski argues that the truly important process of democratization is organic rather than mechanical and encompass not only the political system, but the economic, social, and cultural systems as well. This conception of democracy as more than a system of government is founded in the writings of Alexis de Tocqueville which Pelczynski draws on for his analysis of the likelihood that democracy will survive in Eastern and Central Europe. Tocqueville cites the following basic conditions necessary for the development of democracy: 1) Classes/masses must be able to influence the government, 2) History must be "ready" for democracy, 3) Presup- poses a wealthy society, 4) Presupposes a dynamic commercial and industrial society, 5) Society must have a developed system of private property, 6) The government must be limited--not central- ized, 7) The society must be pluralistic; various interest groups such as church groups and other organizations, 8) The society must have a certain culture/ideology. Pelczynski accepts the eight conditions for democracy established by de Tocqueville and analyzes the extent to which the current situation in Central and Eastern Europe meets the criteria. He believes that the newly established governments address the political aspects of democracy, but that in general, the cultural and social components of the countries remain largely unchanged. The national wealth in these nations is mostly agricultural in the form of collective farms. These farms are ravaged by communist mismanagement and will take years to become productive again. There is a rapidly growing class of entrepreneurs, but the bulk of workers are still engaged in "heavy" industry production of government products; private property is not common. The legal systems are centered around short term political expediency instead of the establishment of democratic constitutional rights. The bureaucracy and governmental structures have not yet become democratic. Pluralism is "back with a vengeance;" there are 26 political parties in Poland alone. Many of these political parties, however, exist in a vacuum, they have no corresponding constituency. The use of mass media is limited. Communism has destroyed a political culture that would be conducive to democracy. Private citizens have turned their back on the public sphere and the system has become corrupt. There is hostility toward politi- cians, and growing apathy about the election process. In sum, Pelczynski argues that the current situation in Central and Eastern Europe meets none of the criteria for democracy advanced by de Tocqueville. There are some reasons why democracy might have a chance according to Pelczynski. First, there is a perceived lack of alternative forms of government; citizens believe that democracy is the only appropriate form of government. Second, the appeal of the material success of the West leads those in the East to hope for the same advantages. Finally, the nations in Eastern and Central Europe need the banks, skills, and investments of the West which are contingent on the maintenance of a democratic form of government. Overall, Pelczynski believes that the best strategy for the world is to invest in the preconditions for democracy rather than simply supporting mechanically installed democratic governments. United Nations Reform after the Cold War Mihali Simai, the United States Institute of Peace Fellow from the Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the University of Economics in Budapest. Dr. Simai is also Chairman of the Council of the United Nations University and President of the World Federation of United Nations Associations. April 21, 1992. Sponsored by the Conflict Resolu- tion Consortium. The U.N., Simai said, might be characterized as having any of three problems. The first is "the old chewing gum complex." In Hungary, he explained, chewing gum used to be hard to find. If you had some, and had to stop chewing it, you would not discard it. Rather you would save it to chew again at a later time. The U.N., he maintained, also continues to chew the same problems and take the same approaches over and over again. It is time now, however, to throw away the old gum (and the old approaches) and start afresh. The U.N. is now starting to do this, as he explained later in his talk. The second problem is that the U.N. tends to take the "black cat approach." Visualize, he said, a group of people in a dark room looking for a black cat. But the black cat is not there. Some searchers will shout out "I found it!," nevertheless--only to find later that they did not. The U.N. too tends to find solutions to problems that are insoluble. (One insoluble problem, he suggested, is the Middle East where we can only manage the situation over the short term to block hostility, but will not find a permanent solution. Mass poverty is also insoluble. We can moderate it, but can't eliminate it. A third example is the global environment. Present social realities prevent solution of many environmental problems, such as global warming. We will have to be satisfied with gradualism, rather than full solution. The third problem the U.N. can be accused of is the "balloon complex." Here a hot air balloon emerges from a fog. The balloonist shouts down to a man in his garden, "where am I?" The man replies "you are over my garden." The balloonist responds, "you must be a U.N. official!" (Because his answer is precise, but useless). The gardener then counters, "you must be a government official," because, as Simai explained, government officials are "full of hot air, flying in a fog, without knowing where they are, or where they are going." In a more serious vein, Simai said the U.N. structure must be divided into three parts: the member governments, the governing bodies of the U.N., and the Secretariat. Right now the Secretariat is running the show, but it doesn't have much autonomy; it is dependent upon the other structures. The U.N. must be examined on the basis of its functions. These are undergoing massive change, just as the world political order is undergoing massive change. The structure of the U.N. was built to reflect the victory of the Allies over the Nazis. But now one major anti-Axis power is disintegrated. The second most powerful nation in the world is Japan. Germany is now the strongest continental power in Europe. This changes the political reality on which the U.N. was built. Now the U.N. must change to reflect these new political realities. But what the new U.N. will look like, and how it will function is not at all clear. Right now, the U.N. is undergoing massive reorganization, directed by the Secretary General. But there appears to be no master plan and nothing is final. The question of reorganization is highly difficult as different countries see the function of the U.N. differently. Some see it as an instrument of their own policy, but don't want it to be too strong. Others simply want to keep it weak, as they see it working against them. Few are advocating a really strong U.N., except George Bush, who has said that the U.N. should play a central role in the new world order. But what will this role be? A foreign policy instrument of the United States? Or will it represent broader multinational interests? This is an open question. Japan is trying to get a permanent seat on the Security Council. Russia has taken over the Soviet Union's seat. Other changes are likely as well, both in structure and function of the U.N. The changing political realities require a U.N. with very different and strengthened functions, Simai argued. The East-West political polarization of the world is being replaced by a North-South economic polarization. Global trade patterns and debt, especially, are creating larger North/South cleavages now that the East/West political cleavage has disappeared. Global trade and distribution of wealth is dividing the world into competing blocks separated by economic protectionism. Trade wars may replace the cold war in the "new world order." Simai thinks the U.N. will deal with this by creating a new world trade organization. This organization should be able to deal seriously with global economic issues. It needs a stronger authori- zation to act than the U.N. has now. It should also involve all countries, Simai said, not just the most powerful ones. The one country/one vote system of the IMF or the World Bank will not work, however. The new organization would need to operate with weighted voting or consensus, Simai feels. The U.N. also needs a conflict management, situation analysis, peace-making, and peace keeping function. This function has already been strengthened, he said, in the first phase of the reorganization. New, good people have been put in place. The administration has been simplified. They are taking a regional and functional approach which should work well if sufficient funding is available. (Funds remain a serious problem as many nations do not contribute their allotted share of U.N. support.) Thirdly, the U.N. needs a strong human rights function. Right now all the major powers are trying to decide what form they want the U.N. to take, what functions it should play, and who should be involved. Most decisions remain to be made. Speaking about the changes in the Communist bloc, Simai said the changes not only represented the collapse of Communism. They also represented the far more important collapse of the last major surviving empire--the Russian empire. This collapse has called into question many other political structures and peace regimes. The disintegration of Yugoslavia, for instance, was the result of the disintegration of the peace regime of the Russian empire. When and where will the disintegration stop? No one knows, Simai said. One significant problem that many people don't understand, is that the clockwork of history runs at different speeds in politics and economics. Political change can come fast, as it has in Eastern Europe and Asia. But economic change is much slower. This causes a conflict between the new political realities and the old economic realities. Eastern Europe did not understand this difference. They were expecting immediate improvement in their economic situation when their political system changed. Instead, they got a worsening of the economic system. The expectation of improvement was based, in part, on promises made by several Western powers. Simai, for instance, was personally present at a meeting in Hungary with George Bush several years ago. Bush said, "Don't worry, we'll help you." Germany also made promises of massive aide after Hungary rejected Communist rule. But this promise was given before the U.S. debt got so bad that there was no money available. It was also before the Germanies united. Now all the U.S. money is being devoted to our own economic problems and West German money is being poured into East Germany. There is none left for Hungary. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have been helpful, as has foreign direct investment. But foreign investment will result in the outflow of profit. Hungary, nevertheless is better off than other Eastern European countries. Poland was helped on paper, by having their debt written off. But they weren't paying on it before hand, so the write off didn't really make a difference. Now Poland, like many other Eastern European and former Soviet states is facing a falling GNP, falling employ- ment and rising social problems. The world, overall, Simai said, faces a massive capital shortage. The worldwide demand for capital has increased, but global savings have declined. Global poverty is one the rise. The U.N. estimates that one billion people now live in absolute poverty. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union nations are going to add to that number. Over the next decade the world will need 700-800 million new jobs. But new technology eliminates jobs. Global unemployment maybe the major social disease of the 1990s. The Gaza Strip: The Forgotten Ghetto of the World Haim Gordon, Visiting Fellow, Kroc Institute of International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame, and Senior Lecturer, Ben-Gurion Univ of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel. February 26, 1992 Dr. Gordon began his address by noting the relative lack of attention Gaza has received as compared to the West Bank. Despite the significant levels of suffering, oppression and exploitation, the majority of Israeli activists consider Gaza to be less important than the West Bank. Dr. Gordon began his human rights work in the Gaza strip approxi- mately three years ago, establishing an extensive network of contacts, including the head of the Palestinian delegation to the peace talks. His work has included gathering information about human rights abuse, filing complaints with the appropriate authorities, and obtaining relief for victims of abuse. One of the cases he described involved an individual who had travelled to Libya to study computer science and, upon returning, was "detained" in jail for two months without being charged. During his deten- tion, he was used as a karate "dummy" by interrogators seeking information about terrorist training. In other cases, interroga- tors have stuffed the mouths of detainees with lit cigarettes and beat them when they allowed cigarettes to fall from their mouths. Children are often detained by the military authorities in Gaza for periods of up to two days. Indeed, such detention is so common- place that a computer database is maintained by the authorities to better keep track of the children. When filing complaints has proved inadequate, Dr. Gordon has gone to the press in some cases, and secured legal assistance in others. While highly critical of Israeli policies in the Gaza, Gordon added that he does not idealize Arab society. The Arab community itself is characterized by ruthlessness, cruelty, fanaticism, and sexism. But that does not justify Israeli human rights abuses, neverthe- less. The Gaza, Gordon said, is the most densely populated area on Earth. More than 700,000 individuals reside in an area measuring five by thirty-four miles. Not surprisingly, he added, it is also the largest ghetto. Of the present population, 230,000 Palestinians were original inhabitants of the Gaza strip. The remaining numbers are largely refugees living in shantytown camps. Interestingly, the intifada did not begin on the West bank but rather, in the Jibalyah camp, one of the worst areas in Gaza. Israeli authority in the Gaza strip is divided into two military units - security forces which keep the roads open and pursue stone- throwers, and, the civil administration, which issues travel and work permits. The Palestinian community is ruled by three sets of largely interactive leadership. The first, most local group of leaders take care of the day-to-day problems in Gaza. This leadership, consisting of merchants, attorneys, and the elderly, constitute the avenue of dispute resolution as Gaza has neither a police force nor a system of courts. The second set of leadership comprises the individuals with which the outside world is familiar, the television spokespersons and members of the Palestinian National Council (PNC). The final group of leaders is the smallest one, consisting of three to five individuals (in Gaza) whose identity is kept strictly secret. These individuals, representing particular factions of the PNC, largely determine the course of the intifada, deciding what actions to take and composing the flyers. The intifada is also characterized by a certain amount of spontaneous activity, as well. The lessons and conclusions Dr. Gordon has learned from the Intifada are: (1) that youth can create change - while the elderly are often trapped in their ways, the young are able to envision roads out; (2) that the struggle for freedom is worthwhile in and of itself; (3) that Palestinians may be the only people who can bring democracy to the Arab world, by virtue of their grass roots activities in the intifada. Police Brutality or Due Process: The Administration of Justice in the Occupied Territories Judge Yoel Tsur, major in the Israeli army reserve and a lower court judge in Jerusalem since 1988 March 16, 1992 at the University of Colorado - Boulder. Tsur began by describing the number and type of Intifada actions against Israelis since the 1987 uprising. "Ex-Jordanian" violence and turmoil has included riots, rocks throwing, use of iron bars, bricks, concrete blocks, coercing shopkeepers, vandalism, attacking public transportation, threats, blockades, and Molotov cocktails. (Tsur used the term "ex-Jordanian" rather than "Palestinian" throughout his talk. He also referred to the occupied territories as "Sumeria" and "Judea.") A knife attack in Jerusalem resulted in the deaths of three elderly Jews, a molotov cocktail exploded in a bus, killing three children and one soldier who died of smoke in- halation trying to rescue passengers. Since 1987, 2001 Israeli soldiers and 800 civilians have been wounded in Intifada-related incidents. These are an extension of Yassir Arafat's threats and are executed by the Unified National Command, Tsur said. The Ex-Jordanian attacks are meant to kill Israelis; consequently Israelis are duty bound to prevent and punish such acts of violence. Israel also has the right to administer justice under international law. Since the Intifada is violent in nature the Israelis must, at times, use force in law keeping. But restraint must be used. At times, the use of force is often forbidden. There are specific laws that the Israeli military must obey. There is an investigation bureau to which complaints can be registered. "Ex-Jordanians" also may submit civil suits to Israeli courts. Since 1989, 90 Israeli soldiers have been courtmartialed and only 9 have been acquitted. Tsur described a complicated system of law in the occupied territories. Each of the occupied territories is handled somewhat differently, and Israelis are subject to different judicial proce- dures than the Ex-Jordanians. The procedure differs also according to the nature of the offense. Tsur ended his talk with the subject of the February 1989 Human Rights Report in which Israel was commented on favorably. Tsur declared that in 99% of all occurrences Israel acted justly; there are only 1% of Israeli police actions that could be found to be abuses of human rights. But it is this 1% on which the media focuses, Tsur said. Tsur also questioned whether Israel should be judged differently given their circumstances. He asked the audience to think of human rights abuses in other countries where there is no freedom of speech, no rights for women, nor freedom of religion. Israel, he implied, is much better than most other countries with respect to human rights. When asked about the Israeli policy of blowing up homes of Palestinians arrested for "terrorism," Tsur said that this is a military policy and, as in the case of riots, certain procedures must be followed (e.g., the family is notified ahead of time). But if an Israeli commits the same crime, their home is not blown up. Tsur justified this by stating that this is war thus, the same standards do not apply. Further, he argued, it is the Israelis' home and they have the right to protect themselves. The Arabs have no right to the same defense, he said, because it is not their home, they are "settlers." The Globalization of Conflict: AGAIN the Rebellious Century? Prof. Sidney Tarrow, Cornell University March, 12 1992 Sponsored by the Department of Political Science, Van Ek Lecture Series. Utilizing the arguments of Jim Rosenau's work, Turbulence in World Politics, as a departure point, Prof. Tarrow began his lecture by describing the implications of Rosenau's theory that the post-World War II period represents the beginning of a period of global turbulence: (1) Since the trends of activity are linear (as opposed to cyclical), the post World War II decolonization period represents the beginning of a new phase; (2) If the movements are part of an interdependent global wave, then political science analyses of individual movements are misplaced; (3) If the trends are deep and well-integrated, there is no reason to assume that the period of turbulence is over. Prof. Tarrow was careful,however, to note the dangers inherent in deducing long-term trends from short term developments. He suggested that mass outbreaks can best be understood as responses to expansion of political bases. Collective action, he argues, comes in relatively short cycles due to several reasons: the tendency toward "explosion" when political opportunities ripen, the limitations upon lifetimes, the tendency toward internal realign- ment, the increased access provided by institutional changes, and, cleavages within the elites. During protest cycles, individuals may be moved to join in on a "moment of madness," but such efforts lead to disorganization, fragmentation and disorientation, thus, contributing to the cyclical nature. Internal conflicts arise over tactics while bystanders grow weary of the protests and shift their sympathies away from the mass movement. Ultimately, sectarianism and violence ensue. Prof. Tarrow questions whether the turbulence presently associated with the struggles of students, women, Blacks, and Eastern Europeans are in any fundamental way interrelated. After analyzing historical developments in the techniques of mass action (such as the evolution from "petition campaigns" to "demonstrations"), Prof. Tarrow suggested that mass forms of collective action are replacing individual forms of protest and are increasingly being used and developed. The principal contribution to collective action of the post World War II period may be the form of nonviolent resistance which started in India and translated into "sit-ins" in the southern United States. The only other post-war contributions to the repertoire of collective action are probably the tactics of skyjacking and political kidnapping coinciding with terrorism. Posing the question of whether the present period of global turbulence represents a short-term spike in activity levels or the beginning of a fundamental long-term trend, Prof. Tarrow suggested that, to connect with epochal changes, one must broaden the scope and focus of investigation. He concluded by noting that con- straints and opportunities will dictate whether we are indeed beginning a new era. Conflict Resolution Consortium CB 327 University of Colorado 80309-0327