CONFLICT RESOLUTION CONSORTIUM NEWSLETTER Campus Box 327 University of Colorado Boulder, CO 80302-0327 ________________________________________________________________ TABLE OF CONTENTS ________________________________________________________________ - Small Grant Awards - Intractable Conflict Project - Justice Without Violence/USIP Grant - Harvard Program on Nonviolent Sanctions Visit - Global Change and Environmental Quality - Affiliates' Program - Conflict Resolution in Central America - Long Range Analysis of War - New Working Papers - Bibliographic Database/Library - Consortium Documents Available Electronically CRC AWARDS NEW SMALL GRANTS _______________________________________________________________ The CRC held a fourth small grant competition in January 1991. Twenty-one proposals were received. Most of these were very strong, which made choices difficult for the selection committee. Those funded this round include: KATE BERRY (DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY, BOULDER) THE MCCARRAN AMENDMENT AND CROSS-CULTURAL WATER CONFLICT RESOLUTION. $2750. This project will investigate the political, legal and economic institutions involved in the enactment and interpretation of the McCarran Water Rights Amendment of 1952. This amendment waived sovereign immunity to the United States, thereby allowing the federal government to participate in and be bound by lawsuits involving the general adjudication and administration of water rights. This is the only act passed in Congressional history which deals even indirectly with Native American water policy. Interpretation of this amendment has been highly important in setting the forum for the resolution of Native American water rights conflicts, which are becoming more frequent and more severe all the time. Berry plans to investigate three interrelated research questions: 1) What were the power relationships between and within local and federal levels which led to the development and enactment of this policy? 2) How has the judicial interpretation of this policy shaped water resources disputes involving Native Americans? 3) How has the process and forum designated by this policy been relevant to the resolution of cross-cultural water conflicts? She plans to use a combination of archival research and personal interviews to glean answers to these three questions. CLAUDIO CIOFFI-REVILLA (DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, BOULDER) PROTOTYPE COSMOS: A CONFLICT AND SECURITY MONITORING SYSTEM FOR THE UNITED NATIONS. $3,000. This project is an outgrowth of Cioffi-Revilla's Long Range Analysis of War (LORANOW) project. Cioffi presented LORANOW to the United Nation's Office for Research and the Collection of Information (UN/ORCI) last November. The ORCI researchers were impressed with LORANOW and seemed interested in how such technology might be applied to their data collection and analysis work. Cioffi-Revilla's CRC small grant proposed to develop a prototype program which might be useful to the UN office. He is calling the model COSMOS -- conflict and security monitoring system. While this system will use the same MacIntosh HyperCard technology as LORANOW, the data will be very different. Rather than examining past data, as does LORANOW, COSMOS would have a past, present and future sector, each with three levels of analysis: micro, macro, and referent. The referent sector is the starting point. It includes the main actors, interests, capabilities, recent events, etc. Macro analysis will highlight more aggregate levels of conflict -- broader interstate relations, status of UN peacekeeping efforts worldwide, international environmental factors, etc. The micro level will examine detailed aspects of the conflict -- value structures, cognitive maps and images, etc. Each of the nine sectors will consist of interactive sets of information. In the prototype version, none of the sectors will be complete. However, the prototype will develop and implement a set of key requirements related to data bases, computer models, and new cartographic methods necessary for effective analysis and synthesis. JOEL EDELSTEIN (DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, DENVER) THE EFFICACY OF NON-VIOLENT ACTION IN REGIME CHANGE IN EASTERN EUROPE: CONDITIONS AND PROCESS. $3,000. Edelstein is investigating processes by which political leaders in Eastern Europe were induced through non-violent direct action to step down or adopt institutional changes that led to a partial or complete loss of power. More specifically, he plans to: 1) identify the conditions in the Eastern European societies which facilitated the development of non-violent opposition; 2) analyze the characteristics of the ruling groups which influenced those with power to respond as they did; and 3) evaluate the effectiveness of the various forms of non-violent action which were employed. Edelstein will apply his findings on non-violent regime change to existing conflict resolution theory. He also plans to compare the transitions from authoritarianism in Eastern Europe to the situation in the southern cone of South America. RITA KUMMER (LAW SCHOOL, BOULDER) THE APPLICABILITY OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION THEORY TO THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS: A CASE STUDY OF THE CIVIL RIGHTS ACT OF 1990. $3,000. The primary goal of this project is to determine whether conflict resolution theory can provide a useful tool for understanding and evaluating the legislative process that led to the development, Congressional approval, and ultimate Presidential veto of the Civil Rights Act of 1990. Kummer plans to interview key participants in the development of and debate over the 1990 Civil Rights Act to determine their goals and strategies. She then plans to apply conflict resolution theory to these findings to determine how such theory might clarify the events of 1990 and perhaps suggest improvements in the legislative process used. This research is also being supported by a matching $3,000 grant from the Dean of the Law School, who sees it as part of a major effort to strengthen the Law School's expertise in Alternative Dispute Resolution Processes. JOHN MCIVER (DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, BOULDER) LANGUAGE AND LEGAL DISCOURSE: HOW PRO SE LITIGANTS PRESENT THEMSELVES TO THE COURT. $3,850. The purpose of this project is to identify: 1) how citizens make initial demands on the court system; 2) what those demands include; and 3) which demands are acknowledged as legitimate. The focus of attention is on pro se requests -- those that come directly from citizens acting without an attorney. These tend to come from two sources. The first is plaintiffs who believe they know their way around the system and don't need an attorney. The second is defendants who cannot afford an attorney, and attempt to defend themselves. While not typical, such communications occur regularly. They are important because the success of such communications determines whether or not the citizen will ever be allowed to have his or her "day in court." Often, these communications fail, and the court rejects the defendant's claim. This result seems to favor the "haves" over the "have nots" -- both in terms of access to the process, and in terms of judgment. This project will identify the frequency of pro se litigation, the types of such communications, and the court's processing of these documents. RENE REITSMA (DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, BOULDER, AND CENTER FOR ADVANCED DECISION SUPPORT FOR WATER AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS - CADSWES) VIEWS IN DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION. $1500. This was a project development grant. Funds were given to support the development of a major research proposal to be submitted to NSF and elsewhere. The proposed project will develop and implement a decision support system for integrated river basin management. It will emphasize information generation and presentation techniques that support the resolution of multi-user conflicts. The approach assumes that river basin management conflicts stem from two sources, interest-based conflicts and data-based conflicts. The decision support system is designed to facilitate the negotiation of data-based conflicts by helping parties develop a neutral, shared set of data that can then be used as the basis for interest-based negotiation. STEPHEN THOMAS (DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, DENVER) THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF GOVERNMENT/POPULAR CONFLICTS THROUGH POLITICAL MOVEMENTS AND DEMOCRATIC REFORM IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA. $3000. The objective of the proposed research is to investigate the prospects for the peaceful resolution of government/ popular conflicts in China through non-violent political movements and the development of democratic institutions and processes. To assess the forces for and against such change, Thomas plans to examine four topics: 1) theories of political movements and peaceful social change in other non-democratic countries; 2) the historical development of Chinese democracy movements; 3) recent Chinese efforts to develop conflict resolution institutions and processes, particularly the 1989 Chinese democracy movement; and, 4) indicators of China's past social and economic justice. Thomas plans to supplement his library research with interviews of Chinese scholars currently living in the United States. ALLAN WALLIS (GRADUATE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, DENVER) BEYOND LOCALISM: RESOLVING LOCAL LAND USE DISPUTES. $2830. Wallis plans a preliminary analysis of emerging structures of regional governance designed to deal with locally unwanted land use (LULU) conflicts. These conflicts, Wallis contends, are symptomatic of a much larger siting problem -- the accommodation of regional growth. Wallis plans to examine three regions: Puget Sound, Southern California, and Southeastern Florida. The purpose of the investigation will be to determine which factors of political economy give rise to new forms of governance based on cooperative processes rather than formal structures. Using past research (e.g., advisory reports to state and regional governments), telephone interviews with key people, and site visits, Wallis plans to identify, describe and analyze some prominent emerging forms of regional governance designed to deal with conflicts arising out of LULU and regional growth problems. INTRACTABLE CONFLICT AND CONSTRUCTIVE PROTEST PROJECT _______________________________________________________________________ One of the most difficult challenges confronting diverse communities is the constructive management of intractable conflicts that arise from the inherent differences between individuals and groups. These conflicts cannot and should not be simply suppressed or superficially "resolved," as such "solutions" are at best only temporary and stifle constructive, long-term social change. However, intractable conflicts do need to be handled creatively to maximize the beneficial outcomes of the conflicts and minimize destructive results for all participants. Seven CRC members have been working with others from the University and City Police Departments, the City and University administration, and representatives of activist groups to develop a long-term program to develop better ways for confronting a variety of intractable issues. (These include racial, ethnic, gender, or sexual orientation conflicts, conflicts over U.S. policy regarding military matters, human rights, abortion, or the environment, for instance). The goal of the effort is to use consensus-building to develop a set of procedures for "fair play" that are likely to be acceptable to a variety of groups on all sides of an issue. The project also plans to develop guidelines for intermediary parties such as police or administrators that would help them to determine when and how they should intervene in public confrontations. While still in the planning stages, the program is likely to have three phases. The first phase will take place from now until August 31 and will involve Concept Development. The second phase, to take place in the fall of 1991, will be a Demonstration Phase. The third phase will be a full Implementation Phase, which will take place after completion of the Demonstration Phase, sometime in 1992. As now conceived, the Concept Development Phase will include a literature review, a resource inventory, and a consensus building process. The consensus-building effort will further explore the processes involved in the prosecution of intractable conflicts develop suggestions for facilitating constructive confrontation and limiting destructive escalation in these situations. These efforts will result in the development of an initial set of proactive and reactive procedures, which will be disseminated, discussed further, and tested in Phase II. We will also produce a series of papers reporting on the findings from the literature review, the resource inventory, and the consensus-building effort. During Phase II papers and pamphlets will be distributed and workshops will be held with student and community- based activist groups, dorm residents, university faculty and administrators, university and city police, selected classes, and other interested groups. The workshops will provide a forum for debating the merits and workability of the procedural suggestions. The procedures will also be directly tested when actual demonstrations or other active conflicts take place. The procedural suggestions, brochures, and other written material will then be revised on the basis of the results of these demonstration efforts. The Demonstration Phase will also test a variety of approaches for teaching people about these issues and techniques. Efforts will be made to try a variety of teaching approaches to determine which are most effective. Other Phase II plans include an interdisciplinary credit class for students interested in exploring intractable conflict in depth. A standby intervention capability will also be established involving a loosely structured group of people who will be trained in the procedures developed in Phase I. This group will be able to assist parties in constructive conflict procedures should a destructive or escalating confrontation develop during the demonstration phase of the project. The last phase will be the Implementation Phase, in which revised procedures, workshops, and other approaches to proactive and reactive response will be broadly implemented. The intervention team will be also be formally constituted and will be trained to apply a wide variety of responses to different conflict situations. Anyone with an interest in participating in such a project should call Guy or Heidi Burgess at 492-1635. JUSTICE WITHOUT VIOLENCE UPDATE - USIP GRANT ______________________________________________________________________ The Justice Without Violence Program was recently awarded a $10,000 grant from the United State's Institute of Peace. The grant will enable a team of ten CRC members to write an edited book examining the utility of nonviolent methods in mitigating justice conflicts around the world. The theoretical approach to be used is based on Kenneth Boulding's image of power and will examine the utility of threat power, exchange power, and the power of the integrative system to bring about change. Participants in the project and their topics include: - Zaven Arabajan, the Soviet Union; - Kenneth Boulding, theoretical overview of his theory of power; - Guy Burgess, project overview and social, political, and economic injustice and the disempowered; also theoretical synthesis; - Heidi Burgess, background: a review of nonviolence literature and theoretical synthesis; - Joel Edelstein, Eastern Europe; - Amin Kazak, the Middle East; - Tony Lowenberg, South Africa; - Bill Kaempfer, South Africa; - Elizabeth Moen, India; - Jim Scarritt, SubSaharan Africa; - Steve Thomas, China; - Paul Wehr, Central America and book editor. Amin Kazak and Zaven Arabajan are new to the project and the Consortium. Both are working at the Political Science Department in Denver. Amin is from Lebanon and has been studying the potential for nonviolent resolution of conflicts in that region for some time. Zaven is a member of the Soviet Academy of Sciences and is in the United States only briefly. However, he has an excellent knowledge of the current situation in the Soviet Union and has agreed to use his knowledge and access to data to write a chapter for the book during his short stay here. (We also plan to make this chapter available soon as a working paper.) We thank both Zaven and Amin for agreeing to participate in the project and are very excited about their contributions. HARVARD PROGRAM ON NONVIOLENT SANCTIONS VISIT _______________________________________________________________________ Also exciting for the Justice Without Violence program was the April 25th visit of Christopher Kruegler and Doug Bond from Harvard. Chris is the new Director of the Albert Einstein Institution and Doug is the new Director of the Program on Nonviolent Sanctions, at the Institute of International Affairs at Harvard. Both have been doing research on nonviolent sanctions, working closely with Gene Sharp, the former director of both institutions. In a plenary address, Kruegler described the mission of both institutions and gave an overview of the field of nonviolence as he sees it, explaining how it relates to other fields of study such as peace research and conflict resolution. While considerable tension has been present between advocates of each of these three fields, all share overlapping missions and interests, Kruegler asserted. Therefore, he called for more exchange between teachers and researchers in these areas. Bond described his ongoing research program on nonviolence, which corresponds in significant theoretical aspects to the CU Justice Without Violence Program. Unlike our program, however, which involves a relatively limited number of case studies, Bond's program is a highly ambitious, comprehensive empirical analysis of a much larger number of cases using a very large number of variables. While still in the pilot stages, the Harvard program has already generated a great deal of theoretical work that will be of use to our project, and has some empirical findings that may be of interest to our researchers as well. Overall, we were extremely interested in the Harvard program and the theoretical constructs they have developed. We hope to continue correspondence with them and perhaps collaborate in the future. A more detailed summary of Bond's and Kruegler's plenary remarks will be found in the Seminar Reporter coming out this May. UNIVERSITY GLOBAL CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY INITIATIVE _______________________________________________________________________ The University's Program on Global Change and Environmental Quality is continuing. On March 15, the President's Committee on Environmental Studies and Global Change issued a major strategy document entitled "Strategies for Program Development." The document "reflects the important responsibilities of the nation's leading universities, including the University of Colorado, in diagnosing global and regional environmental problems, in analyzing the underlying societal causes of these problems, and in prescribing feasible solutions." In this document, the Committee endorsed a rapid program development effort at CU. Further recommendations for program development include: - "Creation of a system-wide Program Committee." - This committee "should have a budget of $200,000/year to be used for purposes that will move the University toward the goals outlined in the strategy document, including, particularly, new cross-disciplinary projects relating to teaching, research, or service." - The committee should also "convene interdisciplinary groups that will establish new course work, create new interdisciplinary research themes, and develop interdisciplinary graduate education. These efforts should involve multiple campuses if possible." - The committee should "provide an organizational framework and identity for multidisciplinary projects that would benefit from the visibility and evidence of institutional commitment deriving from a University- level program. This should be accomplished through research proposal endorsements, contacts with federal agencies, seed money or matching money support, or any other feasible means." This document was followed by a request for proposals for the initiation of new activities or the redirection of activities that are relevant to global change or environmental quality. The Consortium has submitted two proposals to this committee. The first requests $17,000 to be used during the summer and fall of 1991 to strengthen the Consortium's collaborative interdisciplinary program on the process of environmental problem-solving. Initially, we will focus on water resource problems in the arid western U.S. If granted, funds will be used to conduct two pilot projects, facilitate networking, and prepare further requests for outside funding. The first pilot project consists of an interdisciplinary edited book on the water resource policy-making process. Chapter contributors include: - Ren‚ Reitsma, Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems, UCB, and Lynn Johnson, Civil Engineering, UCD, both of whom are contributing chapters on the interface between technical analysis and policy making; - Lloyd Burton, Graduate School of Public Affairs, Denver, who is writing a chapter on the public administration aspects of water policy-making; - Chuck Howe, Economics, who will be writing a chapter on the effects of economic markets on the policy- making process; - Larry MacDonnell, Natural Resources Law Center, who plans to write a chapter on the legal aspects of water policy-making; and - Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess who will collaborate on a chapter on social conflict dynamics, and also introductory and closing synthesis chapters. The second pilot project is a case study of water rights adjudications in California in the 80s and early 90s, to be carried out by Lloyd Burton. Burton plans to compare the number of water rights adjudications in the early, wet, period of the 1980s to the number that took place in the very dry late 80s and 1990. He will also interview key officials in three water districts and the State Water Resources Control Board to determine the extent to which disputes were resolved informally, through negotiation. If a highly formalized state sponsored adversarial process, such as that used in California, stimulates excessive litigious behavior, as some theorists claim, then the decline in water supply should lead to an increase in the number of adjudications. However, a contending theory holds that the existence of such systems simply encourages informal bargaining "in the shadow of the law." If this is true, then one would expect and increase of informal bargaining during the dry period, but not a significantly higher incidence of formal adjudications. We plan to use these two pilot projects as stepping stones to more major projects -- both on water resource policy making, and later on other environmental issues. The second CRC proposal was submitted in conjunction with the International Peace Research Association (IPRA) to fund the first year of the International Environmental Security Network Newsletter. This newsletter would serve as a means of linking researchers from around the world who are interested in issues of environmental related global security. Over 250 people, from more than 25 countries, have already joined the network, which is coordinated by Bruce Byers, Conflict and Peace Studies, UC-B. CRC AFFILIATES' PROGRAM _______________________________________________________________________ The Rocky Mountain Affiliate's program reconvened this spring with an opening talk by Chris Gates from the National Civic League. The League's mission is to improve the quality of local government through professionalization of local government service and through promoting true community self-government or "citizen democracy." Mr. Gates presented a model for community self-government based on the interaction and cooperation of government, business, non-profit organizations, and citizens. "Citizen participation," Gates argued, "is essential, because all members of the community must be held collectively responsible for the community's quality of life." Successful community problem-solving is more difficult now, Gates suggested, due to several factors. These include: - Available monetary resources are shrinking; - Local governments have more responsibility for solving problems since the federal and state governments have relinquished authority in many areas; - Community membership is increasingly diverse; - The integrity and effectiveness of local government is increasingly questioned; and - Political power at the local level has become widely and thinly distributed. As a result of these changes, local governments must abandon their old style of problem-solving, characterized by an elite group defining and solving a problem and then selling the solution to the public. This must be replaced by a new style in which problem identification, option development, option choosing, and implementation must all be a consensus process involving all stake-holders and interest groups. While apparently much slower, Gates argues that the consensus approach is actually more effective and efficient given the new diversified power structure typical of most communities. The old style worked well when power was centralized and citizens were uninvolved. But citizens now are seeking much greater involvement in local government decisions. If denied such, they are likely to use their power to veto or otherwise block any decisions that are made. Therefore, Gates argues, governments need to "go slow to go fast" by involving citizens in all stages of governing from problem identification to solution implementation. The Achilles' heel of this approach, however, is the identification of stake-holders. All interest groups must be represented in the consensus-building process, including the community's "no people" who have a reputation for making trouble by stridently advocating positions and blocking initiatives they don't like. While the natural desire of officials is to shut these people out of collaborative problem-solving procedures, shutting them out is what made them into "no people" in the first place. "Only by including them from the beginning," Gates argues, "can blockage of initiatives, community criticism, and alienation be avoided." Gates argued another issue that has become something of a standing debate in this breakfast series, the importance of realizing that data is not at the heart of the problem-solving process, even when the problems involve highly technical issues. The feelings and opinions of those involved in the problem solving process are more important than "facts." "Facts" can be looked upon very differently by different people. So in the end it is peoples' feelings about the "facts" that will determine the outcome of the process. The next Rocky Mountain Affiliate's Breakfast Seminar is tentatively scheduled for June 5, at 7:30 am (location TBA). The speaker will be Chris Sutton, an attorney with Parcel, Mauro, Hultin, and Spaanstra. Sutton is an expert on hazardous waste litigation. He will be comparing the conflict resolution approach mandated by the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) with that embodied in the Superfund Program and will discuss ways hazardous waste disputes might be better handled. For more information (including the location) call the Consortium at 492-1635. RESEARCH REPORT: CONFLICT RESOLUTION IN CENTRAL AMERICA ________________________________________________________________________ Over the past few years, Paul Wehr has written several articles on conflict resolution in Central America. These articles, written with co-authors John Paul Lederach and Klaus Pfoser, have examined a variety of conflict resolution methods. These include low intensity warfare (as engaged in by proxy by the U.S. Government), confianza or "trust- based" mediation by indigenous parties, the use of moderating third parties who intervene in the conflict context rather than the conflict itself, and the use of common security to resolve conflicts and bring stability to the region. One of the most interesting observations in these works involves the comparison of successful mediation strategies used in Central America with those found in North America. Wehr and Lederach compare what they call confianza or "trust-based" mediation which is utilized widely in Central America to North American traditions of "outsider-neutral" mediation. The differences, they suggest, have both practical and theoretical implications. Both of these are spelled out in detail in "Mediating Conflict in Central America" by Paul Wehr and John Paul Lederach, CRC Working Paper 90-2 and later published in the Journal of Peace Research, No. 1, 1991. In the North American, outsider-neutral, model, a mediator's effectiveness is deemed dependent on his or her externality and neutrality. This means that mediators come from outside the conflict, and have no connection or commitment to either side. The mediator also has a very narrowly defined, professional role. They enter the conflict, facilitate direct negotiations, and then leave again, maintaining their distance from the disputants throughout. In the confianza model of mediation, the mediator's effectiveness is dependent on his or her long-standing connectedness and trust with the conflicting parties. Effective mediators tend to be people who have a close personal relationship to the parties in conflict -- they are well known and trusted, independent of their mediator role. Confianza mediators also take a much broader role in the conflict resolution process. They facilitate direct negotiations, but they help in many other ways as well. They also remain involved in the relationship between the parties after the dispute is resolved. Unlike neutral outsiders, confianza mediators are part of the post-negotiation situation and "must live with the consequences of their work." While these models of mediation are very different, Wehr and Lederach feel that both approaches played useful, complementary roles in Nicaraguan conflict resolution. To demonstrate this, they analyze the Esquipulas process which is the most recent effort to resolve interstate conflict and promote regional integration in Central America. The most important and well-known confianza mediator in the Esquipulas process was Costa Rican President Oscar Arias. Arias drafted the initial Esquipulas agreement, which was signed by five Central American states in 1987. This agreement set out a framework for mediated negotiation among the signatory governments and between each of these governments and their insurgency groups. Arias was able to act as a very successful insider-mediator as he was well known and trusted by the other parties. He had a secure position within his own country, which was by far the most stable and peaceful of the nations in the region. Arias was aided in his efforts by other mediators -- both insiders and outsiders. Cardinal Obando y Bravo headed the National Reconciliation Commission which mediated the Contra-Sandinista conflict. While Obanda was hostile to the Sandinistas, he had high status as a spiritual leader in Nicaragua, and had close connections with resistance groups. Therefore, the Sandinistas were willing to accept him as a intermediary party. Further mediation efforts took place under the auspices of the Conciliation Commission, which mediated the conflicts between the Sandinistas and the Atlantic Coast Indians and Creoles. This process, too, relied heavily on insider confianza mediators. Intermediaries Myra Cunningham and Humberto Campbell were from the East Coast, but were sympathetic to the Sandinista Revolution. Therefore, they were trusted by both sides and played highly effective mediator roles. Other negotiations took place between the Sandinistas and leaders of YATAMA -- an armed resistance group of exiled leaders from the East Coast. Leaders of the Moravian Church, the primary church on the Atlantic Coast, served as intermediaries in these negotiations. However they were not able to reach a final agreement on their own. In this case, the impasse was broken by an outsider-neutral, Jimmy Carter. Carter was in Nicaragua at the time to monitor the 1990 elections, and offered his services to the Conciliation Commission as a mediator. The commission accepted this offer, and Carter was able to help the Sandinistas and the YATAMA leaders break the impasse that the insiders were not able to resolve. Thus, in this case, both types of mediation were utilized in tandem to reach final resolution of the conflicts. Wehr and Lederach conclude that both forms of mediation have been useful in Nicaragua, but that the role of insider neutral mediators was especially important, and has not been sufficiently explored in the North American mediation literature. They suggest a broadening of the definition of mediator to encompass both of these forms, as well as others. They suggested defining mediation simply as "third- party-facilitated negotiation" and mediators (Pruitt and Rubin) as those who 'attempt to help the principals reach a voluntary agreement." Concepts of neutrality and externality, they suggest, should be considered as variables, not constants. They also observe several additional mediator roles in the Esquipulas process. Arias, for instance, acted as both a mediator and a negotiator. He was internal to the conflict, yet also had status apart. Obando y Bravo was a mediator- legitimizer who brought the moral authority of the Church into the negotiations. The success of these people, argues for more careful and deliberate mediator selection, matching the people available with the functions they would need to perform. While Wehr and Lederach acknowledge that the Esquipulas process has been considerably more successful in Nicaragua than in the other Central American states, they suggest that the model had to developed in one place first. Now, perhaps, it can be transferred to the other Central American nations, and indeed, to other regions of the world where the same issues of ethnic autonomy and self-determination, and social and economic justice remain critical. THE LONG-RANGE ANALYSIS OF WAR (LORANOW) PROGRAM UPDATE _________________________________________________________________________ The LORANOW project is now entering its third year at the University of Colorado, directed by CRC member Claudio Cioffi-Revilla. The project aims at developing a new global understanding of war and peace in recorded history using historical datasets, mathematical models and microcomputer technologies. The project examines long- range, cross-societal patterns of war and peace, utilizing statistically tested conflict databases from many sources and new mathematical theories of international conflict based on probability models. Currently, work is proceeding along several fronts: database development, mathematical modeling, short-term applications, and systems development and support. DATABASE DEVELOPMENT: A new data file on wars in ancient China is the first of its kind, covering the period 2700 B.C. to 1 A.D. It is now part of HyperWar: A HyperCard/SuperCard Stack of Wars from the Antiquity to the present, the main LORANOW data set. Analysis of this data is now underway, as are comparative analyses with other regions and historical periods. Several articles are nearing completion, and will comprise the first long-range tests of the models being developed in the LORANOW project. MATHEMATICAL MODELING: New mathematical models are being developed to support the project's general theory of conflict. The main future direction this will take concerns "event history models," a new type of probabilistic model which explicitly incorporates the role of social forces in causing, sustaining, and terminating wars. Many implications of these models are yet to be worked out, but it is clear they will open a new phase for the project. A very promising recent idea sees war onset as the collapse event of a security system developing "self-organized criticality" (from the general theory of complex nonlinear systems). SHORT-TERM APPLICATIONS: Last fall, Cioffi- Revilla began to apply LORANOW models to the situation developing in the Gulf. Given the situation in late December, his model estimated the war would result in between 100,000 and several million combatant deaths. (The high spread is due to the fact that his model estimates combatant deaths on a logarithmic scale, similar to the Richter scale.) These totals did not include civilian deaths or injuries to either troops or civilians. This estimate far exceeded estimates of troop fatalities made public by the U.S. Department of Defense. However, Associated Press estimates of troop fatalities made in early March met the 100,000 level, and the war (with different combatants) still goes on. Cioffi-Revilla also used the LORANOW models to estimate the probability that the war would expand to include new belligerents and the magnitude of the refugee problem that was likely to be created. Current events seem to be supporting the validity of those estimates as well. A detailed description of Cioffi-Revilla's analysis of the Gulf crisis has been accepted for publication in the September 1991 issue of The Journal of Conflict Resolution. SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPORT: The LORANOW Project has been funded by Apple Computers, as well as several University organizations (including the CRC). A major grant proposal to NSF is also pending. NEW CRC WORKING PAPERS ___________________________________________________________________________ Recently published CRC working papers include the following: - #91-1."Third Party Intervention in Nicaragua." by Paul Wehr and John Paul Lederach. $3.00. - #91-2."Intervention and the Search for a New Moral Paradigm." by Jerald R. Wagenman and Joan M. Van Becelaere. $4.00. - #91-3."'Talking War": Symbols, Strategies and Images." by George Cheney. $1.50. - #91-4."Power Dynamics Between Elderly Institution alized Mothers and Their Adult Daughters." by Pamela M. Foy. (Master's Thesis, Sociology.) $10.00. All the 1989 and 1990 working papers are still available; call the Consortium at 492-1635 for titles and prices. BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATABASE AND ARTICLE LIBRARY AVAILABLE _________________________________________________________________________ A number of members have inquired about the availability of the Consortium's bibliographic database of conflict literature. The database is now updated and available free to members at the CRC office. We hope to make it available at more convenient locations, and possibly even on-line within the next several months. It is also available on disk for off-campus users; call or write the Consortium for cost information. If you have a relatively limited search in mind, you can also call the CRC and we will do the search for you, sending you the results. The database now contains about 20,000 entries and is growing almost daily. Information about its contents was printed in the last Consortium Newsletter (not the Seminar Reporter) and a new brochure is available from the CRC by calling 492-1635. The Consortium also has a fairly extensive article library on conflict topics. This, too, is available to members. Call Guy Burgess 492-1635 for details. CONSORTIUM DOCUMENTS AVAILABLE ELECTRONICALLY __________________________________________________________________________ Consortium documents are now available electronically through CSF, a database/fileserver, located on the COLORADO Bitnet node and available through Internet. CSF disseminates electronic copies of newsletters, book reviews, working papers, and other scholarly material related to issues of conflict. CSF can be reached with the following addresses: - CSF@VAXF.COLORADO.EDU (via INTERNET) - CSF@COLORADO.BITNET (via BITNET) - LABREA!CSF@VAXF.COLORADO.EDU (via PEACENET) CSF responds to two commands, SEARCH and SEND, placed on the SUBJECT line of the message heading. The contents of the message itself are discarded. The SEND command needs to be followed by one or more filenames separated by spaces (e.g., SUBJECT: SEND FILENAMEONE FILENAMETWO). A help file is obtained with SEND HELP. The CSF search command asks CSF to look for files associated with a keyword placed on the subject line of your mail header immediately after the word "SEARCH." Searches will give a list of files associated with any of the keywords and are case sensitive. The command SEARCH CRC will tell the computer to send a summary of all Con sortium related files. Further inquires can be sent to: ROPER_D@CUBLDR.COLORADO.EDU.