Citation:
To Choose a Future: Resource and Environmental Consequences of Alternative Growth Paths, Ronald G. Ridker and William D. Watson, (Baltimore, Maryland: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1908), 459 pp.
To Choose a Future: Resource and Environmental Consequences of Alternative Growth Paths is and examination "... of alternative population and economic growth rates, technological change, and trade, environmental, and nuclear policies ... using large-scale, computer-based models, as well as more conventional methods".
To Choose a Future: Resource and Environmental Consequences of Alternative Growth Paths will be of interest to those who seek an understanding of the possible future scenarios for the shape of human life on this planet. This work is divided into nine chapters with a large appendix. The first chapter lays the foundation of the book by outlining: the nature of the problem, methods and approaches, precursors and the nature of the results of the study undertaken by the authors "... to assess the resource and environmental problems that the United States may face over the next fifty years".
The second chapter examines assumptions and scenarios. Among these are: the labour force and labour productivity, geographic distribution of population and economic activities, technological change and the resource base, and international developments. The chapter concludes with public policy alternatives and a summary of scenarios. The third chapter examines the general characteristics and the role of major determinants of the national economy. Chapter four addresses non-fuel minerals. Specifically, it examines estimates of reserves and resources as well as the demand projections for non-fuel minerals such as molybdenum, titanium, copper, cobalt and aluminum. The chapter is appended with two technical notes: one on the status of minerals not considered in the previous section and the other is a comparison with other estimates.
Chapter five discusses the resources and reserves of both renewable and non-renewable energy resources. The authors focus on world demands and supplies and the US demand and supply in turn and conclude with a cumulative demand compared to resources. Agriculture is the next topic of discussion and begins with a consideration of methods and assumptions. Domestic consumption, production, exports and prices precede an exploration of input requirements such as: land, fertilizers, pesticides and energy. The cost of pollution and the benefits of pollution control are the subjects of chapter seven which begins with an examination of the methods, scope and limitations of pollution control measures. Two technical notes follow the chapter: one is a comparison of the authors' study with other such studies, and the second is a note on regional pollution damages.
Chapter eight addresses other environmental concerns. The authors consider: land and water resources, climate, radiation, toxic chemicals and the oceans. The final chapter is a summary and estimation of prospects. The text is appended with an examination and discussion of models in general with focus on eight models in particular. Among these are: The National Economic Forecasting Model (FORECAST), The Solid Waste/Recycling Model (SOLRECYC), The Regional Municipal Agricultural and Mining Runoff Model (RUNOFF), and Air and Water Ambient Models (AQUALITY and WQUALITY).
To Choose a Future: Resource and Environmental Consequences of Alternative Growth Paths is a careful examination and formal study of the resource and environmental problems with which the United States is likely to be faced within the next fifty years. The technical notes and appendix are especially useful to the informed reader who is not a professional in a field related to the topics of this study.