- Meeting was called to review tasks, provide an overview of project, and to discuss targets.
- Divide into three major components: Database, Modeling, and Education.
1.) Prediction of Decision-relevant Events (Amanda Lynch)
- Look at physical models and database to determine what we have and compare with what people want
- Determine decision relevant events
- Replace physical models and database with simple models that will run over a web interface
- We can use traditional knowledge if we have no physical data or models
- Looking at space/time scales that range from large scale/1 year + (circulation indices), to regional/seasonal, to the more local/a few weeks (storms, ice, floods).
Questions:
Ron: Want to be able to convey trends in climate over the long haul. More vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Address this with models?
Amanda: Direction of trends with uncertainty versus seasonal test frames.
2.) Regional Integrated Information System (Jim Maslanik, Bill Manley)
GIS is a strength in the proposal
- key points: need time to gather information, and to tie together modeling, statistics and data
- Need to go beyond GIS to include other data types: remote sensing, model data, temperature analysis, large-range scales, maps
- Integrate traditional knowledge into typical data
- Potential publications on practical applications
Shore erosion team
- Develop hierarchic GIS
- Use GIS for spatial analysis
- work out shore erosion rates to get a sense of where things will be in a few decades
Questions:
Amanda: How easy to learn GIS?
Jim: We have GIS experts we can use.
Bill: Should be able to find a common format.
3.) Addressing the Policy Science Question (Ron Brunner)
- This will depend on how the research unfolds. That will determine what we can offer.
- Want to help with better policy decisions on topics of common interest (i.e. coastal erosion and flooding); better policy capabilities on specific issues (teach policy science if desired)
- Their role is to decide what to use. We can advise, but local priorities must be in the foreground
- Will be a trial and error approach that we can build on. Will rely on what Glenn and Anne have to start with.
- The amount of time spent in Barrow will have a large impact on the success.
- We should proceed carefully so any mistakes can be corrected.
- This will be a collaboration, and we must have the trust of stakeholders.
- Need to stay on top of the science results and make them useful.
Questions:
Linda: The details are major stumbling block. Policy decisions made on modeling. How to avoid pitfalls.
Ron: Need to get the trends right from the data and physical models so it is useful for decision making.
Amanda: What's the most important, the direction of the trend and ballpark time scale?
Ron: We'll have to listen and see what it is that they want to know, then work back to data and models.
Linda: Do we have an handle on the decision-relevant variables?
Amanda: We have guesses. We'll pin down first cut in August to begin work with.
Anne: Have to show that the policy thing is helpful. There are economic factors that could be addressed. Ice movements, out and in, important to the hunters. Work on one level, then move on to another idea. Short term okay. Long term might be outside the experience of elders. This might be especially important.
Ron: Policy doesn't have to be limited to what the community does. Could lay out the data and explore the significance with stakeholders themselves.
Anne: Would be nice if you could say that in next 3-4 weeks there was a high possibility of a major storm, etc. If that worked, it would be more readily accepted. Below the seasonal scale would be more interesting.
Ron: We could also follow up with reports on wildlife and fish in difference places, seeing new species, changes, etc.
Amanda: Caribou Project (Jack Cruse, Anchorage), no climate data.
Anne: Changes in habitat (what moves animals around) would be of interest. Traditional knowledge would be helpful here.
Jim: GIS digital elevation data might provide North Slope researchers with data they might not have themselves. Could buy some credibility.
4.) Putting it in the Context of Large Scale Climate Change (Linda Mearns)
- The scale to focus on is up for grabs?
Amanda: Start with seasonal (short term), and test tools. In 3-5 years go to more large scale models.- IPPC least uncertain large scale climate change (to 2050, say). More convergence of climate models in the area.
- Trends: greater warming, increase in winter precipitation, but not enough consistency to really embrace
Questions:
Amanda: Do we know the influence of El Nino on AK region?
Judy: Might be covered at upcoming meeting...
Linda: This is a 5 year project, modeling might be more robust over that time (persistence of positive state).
Ron: Is the region coupled or de-coupled with global climate change?
Amanda: Large scale circulation is important in the regional trends.
Linda: Couplings/decouplings not as clear.
Judy: Large scale sea ice into local events; then use local data to hone the data.
Jim: At August meeting we should bring up ideas (short/early thaw, more precipitation, river flooding, etc.) that are local issues, see if they have been noticed.
Linda: Also teach in the discussions, think tools: what if change were to happen this way? Could use this to come up with some climate thought experiments. Use this as a framework for interaction.
Anne: A lot of people are asking about climate change. You need to do it in a new way. Might be able to use interview data already collected so you're not asking the same questions over and over.
Ruth: Could ask about dangerous thresholds for climate change.
Anne: Or how they predict change. For example, sea ice, still people around with knowledge, but it's situational, context driven, and includes several variables.
Ron: Can we get a list of projects that are dealing with climate change?
Anne: Yes.
5.) The educational component (Judith Curry)
- Will be at the level of graduate education here at CU
- Four incoming graduates with an interest in the project. Need to find money for students.
- Environmental Studies not accepting students until Fall 2002.
- A certificate in Arctic System Sciences with a capstone class in global change specific to the Arctic. Available on the web so students in AK could also take it as well
- Teach the capstone first, then get certificate going for Fall 2003
- On-line: outreach education to target high school students or beginning college students (even lay people). Small modules and games on arctic climate with associated tests
- NSF has money for informal science education. Barrow residents could access via the school or Heritage Center
- Aero also has outreach people
- SMART students - first one coming this summer
In process.
1.) The storm of August 2000 (Jim Maslanik)
- Picked this storm because it is something people can identify with and it is a way to get folks talking. Can show the data (the kinds we have) in a familiar context.
- All lived through the storm, can build on their images
- Ron: Insurance claims: how damaging was the storm?
2.) Met data obtained so far (Liz Cassano)
- Surface observations 1948+ (please note, the time period depends on the station)
- NCEP 1948+ (4x/day)
- Upper air data, Barrow (1948-1996)
- Arctic cyclone tracking dataset (1966-1993, will be extending this dataset)
- Buoy drifting stations north of Barrow (1979-2000), 12 hourly temperature and pressure
- COADS (Compreshensive Ocean-Atmosphere Dataset, Arctic subset (1950-1995), Dataset contains: marine, surface, and weather reports for the region north of 65N from ships, drifting ice stations, and buoys. Weather information includes air and sea temperature, cloudiness, humidity, winds and present weather information (e.g. Visibilitiy)
- Arctic LTER (Long Term Ecological Research site), surface weather data, from 1986-2000 (depending on station)
3.) Coastal Data (Bill Manley)
- INSTAAR looking at coastal erosion, Mark is doing a literature search
- Have multiple resolutions, depending on source
- High resolution elevation model before August (?)
- Need high resolution scale for erosion; field research to tie into the models
- Delft3D - very adaptable
4.) Assembling local information ahead of time (Anne Jensen)
- Glenn: Some data might be harder to get; trying to get datasets transferred to IARC at Univ. AK, Fairbanks.
- Army Corps of Eng. - erosion project
- Senator Stevens will be in Barrow 28 August (send letter?)
5.) Timing, participants, and publicizing of the meetings (Anne Jensen, Glenn Sheehan, Ron Brunner)
- Need to find a time in August. Semester starts the 27th. Thinking about the week of the 20th, or the week before or after.
- Folks might be out at camps - might need to send someone back in September or October?
- Use smaller focus groups to get started then run ideas past locals.
- Looking for the elders and people out on the land a lot.
6.) Preparing for the meetings and thoughts on presentations of the information (Ron Brunner)
- Should be specific to Barrow; build on their images/memories
- What is significant to them? Weather, policy, erosion, etc.
- This will all be at a general level, highly tentative and incomplete. Have to invite corrections and gap filling. This will allow them to point out the directions the research might take. Be flexible.
- Also, talk about other climate impacts that are meaningful to them.
- Find the problems that are important to drive the science questions.
- There might be a problem with the articulation of the processes, highly contextual explanations. (Cluster analysis?)
- Take maps that can be drawn on.
- Symposium talk
- Displays, to see what it is that draws people
1.) Data (Jim Maslanik)
- division of labor to be decided
- what hardware/software do we need to get
- coordination with off campus organizations
- need go-betweens for north slope
- field activities
- who else in Barrow is doing similar work?
2.) Regional and reduced from modeling (Amanda Lynch)
- what do we need for models
- what resolution
- how to add in atmospheric circulation data
- cluster analysis
3.) Potential for statistical downscaling form regional to local (Linda Mearns)
- need to calibrate the model; regression method
- following discussion, may not have sufficient data for training
4.) Coastal modeling (Scott Peckham)
5.) Plans for the webpage (Judith Curry)
- Plan to get up: educational stuff, Jim's recent trip to Barrow, minutes to meetings, newsletter, sound bites, etc.
- Brief bios and pictures where possible. Send to Cinda Gillilan ( cindagil@monsoon.colorado.edu)
- Make more interactive: select own data on the fly, the game or scenario builders
- Space issue - can we store data someplace else?