What are the most Critical Vital Signs that help us understand the State of the Global Environment

Question for Discussion: What are the most
important of the critical vital signs examined in
this report?

Readings: "Vital Signs 2007: Vital Facts ";
Vital Signs 2003 : What you can Do";
"Vital Signs Facts Online";"Vital Signs Online" ;
"Eco-Economy Indicators"; "Eco-Economy Updates";
"Earth Trends: Skim the various categories for current
data"

Economists versus Biological World View

Simon's Logical Fallacies
Perilous Optimism: A Critique of Simon's Logic
(in-class)
Economics and the Natural World (in-class)
Global Environmental Data (in-class)
State of the Global Environment (in-class)
The World Watch Institute (in-class)
State of the World 2004: Consumption
by the Numbers (in-class)
Vital Signs 2007 basic summary (in-class)
Vital Signs Facts 2007 (in-class)
Data from Vital Signs 2003 (in-class)
WorldWatch: Environmental Presentation Resources (in-class)
Earth Policy.org: Indicators (in-class)
Eco-Economy Updates (in-class)
Overfishing Threatens Catashtrophe,
the journal Science (2006)
90 percent of the the Ocean's edible species
may be gone by 2048 (in-class)
Half of Coral Reefs will be Destroyed (in-class)
The Earth and its People:
The Environmental Scorecard
Turn the Tide Campaign
Population: Human Numbers through Time
Interactive Version: Human Numbers through Time
(in-class)
Earth in Peril: Interactive Maps (in-class)
Earth Trends: World Resources Institute (in-class)
UNEP: Global Environmental Outlook
UNEP: State of the Environment, 1972-2002
United Nations Millennium Development Goals
United Nations Millennium Development Declaration

Refuting the Economist's Futurism
with Scientific Data

Simon's Logical Fallacies
Perilous Optimism: A Critique of Simon's Logic
(in-class)
Economics and the Natural World (in-class)
Artic Ice Melt and Global Warming (in-class)
Global Environmental Data (in-class)
State of the Global Environment (in-class)
The World Watch Institute (in-class)
State of the World 2004: Consumption
by the Numbers (in-class)
Vital Signs 2007 basic summary (in-class)
Vital Signs Facts 2007 (in-class)
Data from Vital Signs 2003 (in-class)
Earth Policy.org: Eco Indicators (in-class)
Eco-Economy Updates (in-class)
Overfishing Threatens Catashtrophe,
the journal Science (2006)
90 percent of the the Ocean's edible species
may be gone by 2048 (in-class)
Half of Coral Reefs will be Destroyed (in-class)
The Earth and its People:
The Environmental Scorecard
Turn the Tide Campaign
Population: Human Numbers through Time
Interactive Version: Human Numbers through Time
(in-class)
Earth in Peril: Interactive Maps (in-class)
Earth Trends: World Resources Institute (in-class)
UNEP: Global Environmental Outlook
UNEP: State of the Environment, 1972-2002
United Nations Millennium Development Goals
United Nations Millennium Development Declaration

Simon's Logical Fallacies

We should take the optimists seriously, and carefully answer and refute their arguments, for the simple reason that the political-economic paradigm of endless resources and constant growth dominates the thinking of those who establish and implement governmental and corporate policies throughout the developed world.
Ernest Partridge, in "Perilous Optimism"

"Thus the economists' choice is simple and stark:
either devise and defend a new economic theory that accommodates itself to the basic conditions of life as articulated by the life sciences (e.g., ecosystemic stability and population limits) and the physical sciences (e.g., thermodynamic laws), or else simply choose to ignore these facts and deal instead with a fanciful world. Clearly, Simon has chosen the latter course and, in the face of both common sense and scientific evidence, has posited, as he must, a world of infinite resources that is supportive of perpetual growth.

"I once heard Paul Ehrlich remark that if an engineer proposed a design for an aircraft with a constantly expanding crew, we would think him mad. And yet, when an economist defends a theory that posits a perpetually growing global economy, he is awarded a Nobel Prize. Notwithstanding that, "perpetual growth" is unknown in the natural world. In the words of the novelist Edward Abbey, "the ideology of constant growth is the ideology of the cancer cell." It is an ideology that leads to the death both of the cancer and its host." Ernest Partridge
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Economics and the Natural World

While I have argued that there are severe limitations to the applicability of economic theory to the natural world, economic theory might nonetheless help to explain the successful promulgation of Prof. Simon's ideas: There is a demand, lavishly rewarded, for an apologia for classical economic practice, for a justification of global industrial "business as usual," and thus for a dismissal of the eco-scientists' warnings. Julian Simon has met that demand with extraordinary wit and cleverness.

In short, if there were no Julian Simon he would have to be invented.

But Simon posits a world-view and proposes a policy that can only lead to ruin. To paraphrase the wise and much-lamented physicist, Richard Feynman "For a successful environmental policy, reality must take precedence over wishful thinking, for nature cannot be fooled." 32

Ernest Partridge

THE CORNUCOPIAN FALLACIES: THE MYTH OF PERPETUAL GROWTH

by Lindsey Grant (The Futurist, August 1983)

The environmentalist--the proponent of corrective
action is (or should be) simply warning of
consequences if trends or problems are ignored,
he does not need to predict. The cornucopias,
on the other hand, must predict to make his case.
He must argue that problems will be solved and
good things will happen if we let nature take its
course. Since nobody has yet been able to
predict the future, they are asking their listeners
to take a lot on faith.

To predict the future performance of the poor
countries based upon the past performance of
the rich countries may involve too loose an
analogy to justify the faith put in it. The analogy
assumes that the underlying factors are
substantially similar. They are not. In contrast
to Europe when it industrialized, poor countries
today tend to have faster population growth
rates, no colonies where capital can be
mobilized, lower incomes (probably),
extreme foreign exchange problems, no
technological lead over the rest of the world,
and no empty new worlds to absorb their emigrants.

There is nothing remotely approaching this
sort of interactive analysis in the works of the
cornucopians. Kahn simply projects economic
growth and assumes that the necessary inputs
will be available and that the environmental
problems will be surmounted. Simon does not
address these questions in any integrated
fashion.

The principal purpose of future studies should
be to look as far ahead as possible, to study
the implications of current and projected activity,
to see how different sectors and issues
interrelate. This process is any thing but static.
It should be a continuing process of probing and
testing the potential consequences of different
activities and directions of growth, of identifying
the issues that need attention and the potential
directions for beneficial change.

Global Environmental Data

Environmental Milestones
WorldWatch: Environmental Presentation Resources
WorldWatch: Online Research Library
State of the World 2004: Consumption
by the Numbers (in-class)
Earth in Peril: Interactive Maps (in-class)
Population: Human Numbers through Time (in-class)
Vital Signs: Fact of the Week Archive
Vital Signs 2003: What you can Do
State of the Environment and Policy Responses:
1972-2002 (in-class)
Earth Trends: World Resources Institute (in-class)
The Environmental Scorecard (in-class)
Interactive Table of World Nations
UNEP: Global Environmental Outlook
United Nations Millennium Development Goals

From Vital Signs 2003

Two different types of environmental destruction result: the wealthy impose the heaviest toll on the planet by dint of their materials-intensive, pollution-laden lifestyles, whereas the poor generally live with some of the worst local environmental conditions, eking out a meager living only by taxing their croplands, forests, and water resources to the limits. (vs, 17)

Globalization-increased trade, investment, travel, and other border--transcending changes--has deepened these disparities. It has been an engine of unrivaled economic opportunity for some and a source of increasing pressure and anxiety for many more. The world economy has grown sevenfold since 1950. (vs, 17)

Poverty is first of all a lack of sufficient income, with more than 2 billion people worldwide struggling to survive on a few dollars a day or less. Hunger is a widespread phenomenon on this planet--but people go hungry not because of a scarcity of food, but because they are too poor to buy enough. Most of the hungry live in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. A substantial share of world grain supplies is sold as food not for hungry people but for livestock. (vs, 17)

In a variety of ways, the world economy is rigged
against the interests of the poor. Farm subsidies
of more than $300 billion per year, for example,
allow food crops exported by farmers in industrial
countries to be sold at prices 21-50 percent
below the cost of production, undermining farmers
in developing nations. (See pages 96-97.) (vs, 18)

In Mexico, Peru, and Colombia, farmers are
turning to drug crops like opium, coca, or
cannabis because their food crops cannot
compete with cheaper, mass-produced imports.
(vs, 18)

Without enough money to buy food, some 815 million people worldwide are chronically hungry. Lack of clean water or sanitation kills 1.7 million people each year--90 percent of them children--and indoor smoke from heating and cooking fuels causes 1.6 million deaths. (See pages 108-09.)

Even as the "underconsumption" of clean water, food, education, or medicines accounts for up to 23 percent of deaths worldwide, the World Health Organization
estimates that the "overconsumption" of food, tobacco, alcohol, and drugs accounts for up to 46 percent of mortality. Wealthier parts of the world have a disproportionate amount of such deaths. (vs, 20)

The United States is accordingly the largest
contributor to climate change, producing 24
percent of the world's carbon emissions from
fossil fuel burning. The U.S. passenger car
fleet alone, accounting for one quarter of the
world total, produces as much carbon as the
entire Japanese economy. Per person, U.S. carbon emissions are roughly double that of other major industrial nations, and 17 times that of India. (vs, 21)

The United States, with about 5 percent of world population, accounts for 22 percent of the global
economic product, 25 percent of the passenger
cars, and more than half of what the world
spends on advertising. (See pages 44-45, 48-49,
and 56-57.) (vs, 22)

As the world's single largest contributor to carbon emissions, the United States is doing more than any other nation to warm the global atmosphere. It is therefore striking that the United States has
abandoned the Kyoto Protocol to combat climate change while most of the world is moving forward to adopt it. (vs, 22)

State of the Global Environment

World Scientists' Warning to Humanity
Union of Concerned Scientists
The Earth and its People: The Environmental Scorecard
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (in-class)
Earth Trends: World Resources Institute (in-class)
Ecosystems and Global Well-Being (in-class)
UNEP: Global Environmental Outlook
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC: Summary for PolicyMakers 2007
World Population Growth: 1992-2001
U.S. Consumption and GDP: 1949-2002 (in-class)
Interactive Table of World Nations (in-class)
Global Population Clocks
The UC Atlas of Global Inequality
New CE0/Worker Pay gap Study
Inequality and Corporate Power
World Watch Resource Center

Artic Ice Melt and Global Warming