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Question for Discussion: What are some of the clues Crichton leaves the reader that all the dinosaurs won't be destroyed? Video: Chernobyl
10 years Later (1997); Moyer's "Earth on the Edge (2004) ; Response Paper: Based on the reading, class discussion, and the web notes, what do you thinkare the five major design flaws in JurassicPark? Are some flaws more important than others? The Lessons of Jurassic Park
Lessons from Jurassic Park for the Future
Jurassic Park and the Environmental Crisis
Three questions to consider when designing a system as complex as Jurassic Park: 1. What do we know about the environment and its complex systems? 2. Given that knowledge, how do we design technology to control and profit from that environment? Malcolm's Larger Conclusion: "My point is that life can take care
of itself. If we are gone tomorrow, the Earth will not miss us....Let's be clear. The planet is not in jeopardy. We are in jeopardy. We haven't got the power to destroy the planet--or to save it. Be we might have the power to save ourselves." The Dangers of a Sixth Mass Extinction "Today the Earth is again in extinction’s grip—but the cause has changed. The sixth extinction is not happening because of some external force. It is happening because of us, Homo sapiens, an “exterminator species,” as one scientist has characterized humankind. The collective actions of humans—developing and paving over the landscape, clear-cutting forests, polluting rivers and streams, altering the atmosphere’s protective ozone layer, and populating nearly every place imaginable—are bringing an end to the lives of creatures across the Earth. “I think we must ask ourselves if this is really what we want to do to God’s creation,” says Pimm. “To drive it to extinction? Because extinction really is irreversible; species that go extinct are lost forever. This is not like Jurassic Park. We can’t bring them back.” Virginia Morell, The Sixth Extinction Warning from The Earth Charter The Global Situation Global Environmental Outlook: Full Report (2002) "Over 70 per cent of the Earth's land surface could be affected by the impacts of roads, mining, cities and other infrastructure developments in the next 30 years unless urgent action is taken. Latin America and the Caribbean region is likely to be the hardest hit with more than 80 per cent of the land affected, closely followed by Asia and the Pacific region. Here, over 75 per cent of the land may well be affected by habitat disturbance and other kinds of environmental damage as a result of rapid and poorly planned infrastructure growth." " Meanwhile more than half the people in the world could be living in severely water-stressed areas by 2032 if market forces drive the globe's political, economic West Asia, which includes areas such as the Arabian Peninsula, is likely to be the worst affected with well over 90 per cent of the population expected to be living in areas with "severe water stress" by 2032. " "Over 1000 people, many from a global network of collaborating centres,have contributed to the preparation of GEO-3. The report says the planet is at a crucial cross-roads with the choices made today critical for the forests, oceans, rivers, mountains, wildlife and other life support systems upon which current and future generations depend." "But generally there has been a steady decline in the environment, especially across large parts of the developing world. The declining environmental quality of planet Earth and the apparent increase in strength and frequency of natural hazards such as cyclones, floods and droughts are intensifying peoples' vulnerability (GEO-3 Chapter 3) to food insecurity, ill health and unsustainable livelihoods, says the report. The poor, the sick and the disadvantaged, both within societies and in different countries and regions, are particularly vulnerable. Everyone is vulnerable to some extent to environmental threats but there is evidence that the gap between those able and those unable to cope with rising levels of environmental change is widening." "GEO-3 concludes that one of the key driving forces has been the growing gap between the rich and poor parts of the globe. Currently, one-fifth of the world's population enjoys high, some would say excessive, levels of affluence. It accounts for nearly 90 per cent of total personal consumption globally. In comparison, around 4 billion people are surviving on less than US$ 1 to $ 2 a day." "The main driving force, putting pressure on land resources, has been the growing global population. There are 2,220 million more mouths to feed than there were in 1972." "Soil erosion is a key factor in land degradation. Around 2 000 million (2 billion) ha of soil, equal to 15 per cent of the Earth's land cover or an area bigger than the United States and Mexico combined, is now classed as degraded as a result of human activities. About one-sixth of this, a total of 305 million ha of soils are either "strongly or extremely degraded". Extremely degraded soils are so badly damaged they cannot be restored." "Around half of the world's rivers are seriously depleted and polluted. About 60 per cent of the world's largest 227 rivers have been strongly or moderately fragmented by dams and other engineering works." "Some 80 countries, amounting to 40 per cent of the world's population, were suffering serious water shortages by the mid-1990s. Around 1.1 billion people still lack access to safe drinking water and 2.4 billion to improved sanitation, mainly in Africa and Asia." "The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that forests, which cover around a third of the Earth's land surface or 3,866 million ha, have declined by 2.4 per cent since 1990. The biggest losses have been in Africa where 52.6 million ha or 0.7 per cent of its forest cover has gone in the past decade." "Mangrove forests, natural sea defences, nursery grounds for fish and prime nesting and resting sites for migratory birds, are threatened by impacts such as over-harvesting for timber and fuel wood, tourism and coastal developments. Up to 50 per cent of recent mangrove destruction has been due to clear cutting for shrimp farms. The loss and fragmentation of habitats such as forests, wetlands and mangrove swamps have increased the pressures on the world's wildlife." "By 1994, an estimated 37 per cent of the global human population was living within 60 kilometres of the coast. This is more than the number of people alive on the planet in 1950. Globally, sewage is the largest source of contamination by volume with discharges from developing countries on the rise as a result of rapid urbanization, population growth and a lack of planning and financing for sewerage systems and water treatment plants." "Just under a third of the world's fish stocks are now ranked as depleted, overexploited or recovering as a result of over-fishing fueled by subsidies estimated at up to US$20 billion annually." "Depletion of the ozone layer, which protects life from damaging ultra violet light, has now reached record levels. In September 2000, the ozone hole over Antarctica covered more than 28 million square kilometres." "Concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main gas linked with global warming, currently stand at 370 parts per million or 30 per cent higher than in 1750. Concentrations of other greenhouse gases, such as methane and halocarbons, have also risen." We are at a crossroads with the future in our hands. The decisions taken today and tomorrow will define the kind of environment this and future generations will enjoy. GEO-3 in its Outlook chapter outlines four policy approaches leading to different outcomes over the next 30 years. Here we highlight two of the most contrasting scenarios: Markets First and Sustainability First. One envisions a future driven by market forces; the other by far reaching changes in values and lifestyles, firm policies and cooperation between all sectors of society. Malcolm on Evolution "But the point," Malcolm said, "is that this intricate developmental.process in the cell is something we can barely describe, let alone understand. Do you realize the limits of our understanding? Mathematically, we can describe two things interacting, like two planets in space; Three things interacting-three planets in space-well, that becomes a problem. Four or five things interacting, we can't really do it. And inside the cell, there's one hundred thousand things interacting. It's so complex -- how is it even possible that life ever happens at all? Some people think the answer is that living forms organize themselves. Life creates its own order, the way crystallization creates order. Some people think life crystallizes into being, and that's how the complexity is managed." "It just takes a few," Malcolm said. "Some dinosaur roots in the swamps around the inland sea, changes the water circulation, and destroys the plant ecology that twenty other species depend on. Bang! They're gone. That causes still more dislocations. A predator dies off, and its prey grow unchecked. The ecosystem becomes unbalanced. More things go wrong. More species die. And suddenly it's over. It could have happened that way." "Just behavior . . ."Grant on Responsibility "No, you shirked your responsibility all along, from the very beginning....You sold investors on an undertaking you didn't fully understand. You were part owner of a business you failed to supervise. You did not check the activities of a man whom you knew from experience to be a liar, and you permitted that man to screw around with the most dangerous technology in human history. I'd say you shirked your responsibility" (p. 372) Historical Events in the rDNA Debate In the summer of 1971, experiments were planned to introduce SV40 DNA into an E. coli cell. This was of concern because SV40 is a monkey virus that can transform monkey as well as human cell lines into a cancerous state. These experiments were postponed. In June 1973, a Gordon Conference discussion related to safety issues of rDNA lab workers was held. National Institute of Health (NIH) and National Insitute of Medicine (NIM) was asked to appoint a committee to study the matter. At the same time, letters were sent by notable scientists to the journals Science and Nature calling for a temporary halt to rDNA experiments. This request was unheard of before in the history of science. A Recombinant DNA advisory committee (RAC) set up at the behest of the scientific committee by the NIH.The Current Dilemma in rDNA Research ( from The Recombinant DNA Debate, by Hong Lim Oei, Ph.D.) Today, rDNA has become one of the few indispensable tools in genetic research. By using rDNA, scientists can insert well-characterized genes into an organism, usually into the bacterium E. coli. And by growing the bacteria, large quantities of the product of the inserted gene, for example, insulin, are produced in a relatively short time. Or, specific genes can be inserted or deleted from plants to create new plant varieties in a few generations. In the preliminary phases of somatic applications of human gene therapy altered cells are introduced in patients to alleviate gene defects. The technique is precise, effective, and requires less time than traditional production, breeding, or therapeutical methods and often permits steps not possible by traditional means. The Molecule of the Year 1994, the DNA repair enzymes, would not have been detected without the breakthrough of the rDNA technique. The repair enzymes are crucial in preserving our health. In spite of these marvelous achievements, the development of rDNA has not been without controversy, as we have seen. What do the Challenger Explosion and the breakdown of Jurassic Park have in common: 1) They are the result of multiple, interdependent causes. 2) They are caused by modern industrial society's 3)They are caused by the desire to quickly develop technology and get it to the market before it is completely tested and understood. 4) They are caused by the desire to make profits or protect existing profits or funds. 5). They are caused by the failure of engineers and designers to understand the limits of our scientific knowledge and our ability to build and predict the performance of technology. 6). They are caused by political conflict and struggles for dominance and control. 7). They are caused by public pressure for new advances 8). They are caused by the failure of scientists to properly understand the limits of their knowledge and inform the larger society about the consequences of their limited knowledge and limited ability to control and predict events in the larger natural world. 9). They are caused by the human obsession to defy nature, challenge the limits of nature and technology, and impose their control on the Earth. 10). They are caused by our failure to properly assess the long-term costs of developing science and technology given our limited knowledge and control of complex systems. The global environmental crisis is the result of the same multiple causes that led to the Challenger explosion and the breakdown of Jurassic Park. The crisis is expanding, accelerating, and getting worse because, like Hammond, modern, industrial civilization insists on believing that we will very shortly completely understand the global environment, know how to use science and technology to control and predict the environment, and understand the short- and long-term costs of our actions. The breakdown at Jurassic Park is a serious warning that these assumptions are often wrong, and the results can be catastrophic. But how do we change our assumptions. If every time we witness a major technological breakdown, we deny there is a larger problem and keep hoping that next time we will know what we're doing we won't learn the larger lesson from the breakdown of Jurassic Park. There are unpredictable risks that lead to unacceptable catastrophes and death that should limit our development of science and technology, our efforts to use technology to control and predict complex systems, and limit our unbounded faith in the power of human reason and will to control the Earth. Until we accept this larger lesson, we will continue to have dangerous technological breakdowns and face growing global environmental problems.
Crichton could have ended Jurassic Park after Grant and the others regain control of the Park headquarters by killing the Raptors. In the movie, the story ends at this point. But in the book, Crichton adds a whole new section. Why does Grant insist that he take a party to find and explore a Raptor nest? Isn't this rather foolhardy, even suicidal, given their larger inability to regain control over the entire park? Afterall, at one point Malcolm argues that the park is now reaching a new equilibrium point with the dinosaurs creating and forming a natural community of dinosaurs. Given this, why would Grant and the others want to go into this natural, uncontrolled community of dinosaurs and explore a Raptor nest? The larger answer involves Grant's concern that if all the dinosaurs on the Island are to be destroyed, we need to know how they breed, how many of them there are, and what is the nature of their communities. The larger problem facing this last major section of the book is this: Having failed to control the dinosaurs, can we now be sure that we have killed them all in order to protect the larger human world from dinosaurs. Crichton's larger answer is that because we don't know enough about dinosaurs in their natural state we can't be sure that we have destroyed them all. But, moreover, we can't be sure we have killed all the dinosaurs, because dinosaurs like all organism are adaptive, they will try to overcome and adapt to changes in their environment. If the Costa Rican government firebombs the island, the dinosaurs will try to avoid being burned to death, they will try to take cover and avoid extinction, just like any successful, adaptive organism. Grant argues that a team must inspect the Raptor nest because "We have to find them, and inspect them, and count the eggs. We have to account for every animal born on the island. Then we can burn it down." But, given what they have already learned and experienced from the dinosaurs can they be sure that they can account for all the dinosaurs and be sure that they all will be killed? No! In fact, after observing the Raptors in their nest, Grant concludes: "The dinosaurs might be truly different animals, that they might possess behavior and social life organized along lines that were utterly mysterious to their later, mammalian ancestors." After visiting the Raptor nest, Grant concludes that dinosaur behavior appears to be similar to birds, and that like birds they have an instinct to migrate. On the basis of his observations in the
nest and their experiences with the dinosaurs on the island, Grant
would be forced to conclude that they couldn't be at all sure that
firebombing the island would kill all the dinosaurs. Afterall, they
had proved to be intelligent, resourceful, adaptive creatures. 1). They could hide in the numerous underground bunkers and storage areas on the island. 2). They could avoid the firebombing by jumping into the ocean or the lakes and rivers until the bombing has stopped. 3). They could try to swim off the island to avoid the bombing. Some dinosaurs swim like crocodiles! 4). They could hide in the caves, near hillsides, and rough terrain where bombing would be difficult. 5). They could escape to the mainland in some of the ships taking the remaining staff and supplies off the island. 6). Many dinosaurs have already escaped the island and now live on the mainland. We can't be sure of the numbers of dinosaurs that already have escaped the island, and therefore won't be threatened by the bombing. 7).The dinosaurs could already be hiding in numerous underground nests, like the Raptor nests, that the bombers don't know about. 8). The dinosaurs could be hiding in
the secure, reinforced concrete buildings of the main park compound.
The pilots wouldn't think to look for 9). The pterodactyls could fly away to
the mainland after 10). We don't know the exact number of dinosaurs on the island, what their behavior is, and how they will attempt to adapt to the bombing. The Larger Lessons of Jurassic Park The larger argument Crichton makes in Jurassic Park is that we must more tightly regulate and control the development of science and technology. If we don't try to regulate and limit the accelerating development of new technologies, we will create environmental problems that we won't be able to predict, control, and avoid serious injury from. If we continue, as Hammond does until his death, to believe that a little more knowledge, a little more advanced technology, and a little more human effort and will allow us to gain complete control over the environment, we will create even larger and more deadly environmental dangers and catastrophes. But Hammond's dogged determination to start over and build another Jurassic Park, with embryos stored in Palo Alto, despite the death and destruction caused by dinosaurs in his first failed park, serves as a warning for those who believe that modern, industrial civilization, despite all the environmental problems it has created and is creating, can solve its problems and gain control over nature and technology. Our dogged faith in our own reason and power, despite all the evidence to the contrary, is created by deeply held cultural assumptions about the human place in the larger world. Hammond is evidence that many will hold onto this faith despite the larger environmental catastrophes looming around us, such as global warming, acid rain, ozone depletion, deforestation, loss of topsoil, destruction of fisheries, pollution, and loss of biodiversity. Despite these problems, the leaders of our modern, industrial civilization are supremely optimistic in the ability of our civilization to go on doing what it's doing, trying to control and dominate the natural world. The breakdown of Jurassic Park is a warning about what will happen if we don't recognize the limits of our knowledge and the havoc our efforts to control the natural world have already caused. In our globalized economy, individuals and global corporations use technology to change the environment for profit. Like Hammond, they are more interested in making money than worrying about the impact of this technology on the global environment. The more interconnected our globalized economy is, the more interdepenendent it is. The growth of the ozone hole above the North and South Poles and the increasing levels of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere are two great examples of how individual's daily actions can affect the global environment. Because our actions affect our local, regional, national, and global environments, we must work together to make sure that we are not harming our environment. Because we are so interdependent, we need local, national, and global governments to regulate the development, use, and disposal of new technologies. Without careful regulation and control, new technologies could threaten the global environment. Jurassic Park is a great model of how one corporation's actions affected an entire region and led to the death of dozens of people. Supporters of globalization argue that the "free market," "economic growth and development", and "more science and technology" will solve the problems created by globalization. Jurassic Park is a warning that just doing more of the same thing-- pursuing profit as the central goal, and ignorance about science and technology and the human impacts on the larger environment--can lead to deadly consequences. If we don't better regulate economic growth, the development of science and technology, and increasing human impacts on the global environment, then we face real dangers of undermining the ability of that environment to support our complex, industrial civilization. Malcolm worries that some of the actions we are taking now could already doom us. Jurassic Park warns about the impact of the global environmental crisis on the viability and future of our modern, industrial civilization.
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